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Abstract As COVID‐19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high‐resolution agent‐based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll‐out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY — representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll‐out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening. 

Abstract Optimizing group performance is one of the principal objectives that underlie human collaboration and prompts humans to share resources with each other. Connectivity between individuals determines how resources can be accessed and shared by the group members, yet, empirical knowledge on the relationship between the topology of the interconnecting network and group performance is scarce. To improve our understanding of this relationship, we created a game in virtual reality where small teams collaborated toward a shared goal. We conducted a series of experiments on 30 groups of three players, who played three rounds of the game, with different network topologies in each round. We hypothesized that higher network connectivity would enhance group performance due to two main factors: individuals’ ability to share resources and their arousal. We found that group performance was positively associated with the overall network connectivity, although registering a plateau effect that might be associated with topological features at the node level. Deeper analysis of the group dynamics revealed that group performance was modulated by the connectivity of high and low performers in the group. Our findings provide insight into the intricacies of group structures, toward the design of effective human teams. 

Abstract Filtering information in complex networks entails the process of removing interactions explained by a proper null hypothesis and retaining the remaining interactions, which form the backbone network. The reconstructed backbone network depends upon the accuracy and reliability of the available tools, which, in turn, are affected by the specific features of the available dataset. Here, we examine the performance of three approaches for the discovery of backbone networks, in the presence of heterogeneous, time-varying node properties. In addition to the recently proposed evolving activity driven model, we extend two existing approaches (the disparity filter and the temporal fitness model) to tackle time-varying phenomena. Our analysis focuses on the influence of the network size, which was previously shown to be a determining factor for the performance of the evolving activity driven model. Through mathematical and numerical analysis, we propose general guidelines for the use of these three approaches based on the available dataset. For small networks, the evolving temporal fitness model offers a more reasonable trade-off between the number of links assigned to the backbone network and the accuracy of their inference. The main limitation of this methodology lies in its computational cost, which becomes excessively high for large networks. In this case, the evolving activity driven model could be a valid substitute to the evolving temporal fitness model. If one seeks to minimize the number of links inaccurately included in the backbone network at the risk of dismissing many links that could belong to it, then the temporal disparity filter would be the approach-of-choice. Overall, our contribution expands the toolbox of network discovery in the technical literature and should help users in choosing the right network discovery instrument, depending on the problem considered. 

Abstract Amid the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of “what‐if” scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent‐based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID‐19 in small towns and cities, with a single‐individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY—one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID‐19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches—in hospitals or drive‐through facilities—and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision‐making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine‐grain resolution, open‐source nature, and wide range of features. 

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is difficult, but it is key to reducing their social and economic consequences. Here, we introduce a meta-population model based on temporal networks, calibrated on the COVID-19 outbreak data in Italy and applied to evaluate the outcomes of these two types of NPIs. Our approach combines the advantages of granular spatial modelling of meta-population models with the ability to realistically describe social contacts via activity-driven networks. We focus on disentangling the impact of these two different types of NPIs: those aiming at reducing individuals’ social activity, for instance through lockdowns, and those that enforce mobility restrictions. We provide a valuable framework to assess the effectiveness of different NPIs, varying with respect to their timing and severity. Results suggest that the effects of mobility restrictions largely depend on the possibility of implementing timely NPIs in the early phases of the outbreak, whereas activity reduction policies should be prioritized afterwards.