Abstract The discussion of adaptation to climate change in coastal areas has focused on short-term risk reduction and climate-proofing, but there is growing recognition that—at some point in the future—relocation to less vulnerable geographical areas will become necessary for large numbers of residents in many coastal communities. Spontaneous relocations that occur after catastrophic events can entail high costs, both for those who resettle elsewhere and for the remaining community. Managed retreat attempts to reduce such costs, thereby facilitating the relocation process. Property buyouts, the most prominently discussed policy tool for managed retreat, present significant challenges in terms of equity, timing, finance, and scale. We discuss innovation in buyout policy that allows residents to remain in their homes as renters after being bought out. We develop the basic structure of such a policy and show the pathways through which it can help to finance buyouts, harmonize public and private decision-making, and manage the timing of community transition. We also recommend funding mechanisms and other details to overcome the substantial barriers to implementation. Although buyouts with rentbacks will require institutional innovation in order to serve as an effective policy framework, the policy has the potential to improve social, economic, and environmental outcomes from the eventual unfortunate but necessary migration away from coastal areas. 
                        more » 
                        « less   
                    
                            
                            The Political Complexity of Coastal Flood Risk Reduction: Lessons for Climate Adaptation Public Works in the U.S.
                        
                    
    
            Abstract Coastal climate adaptation public works, such as storm surge barriers and levees, are central elements of several current proposals to limit damages from coastal storms and sea‐level rise in the United States. Academic analysis of these public works projects is dominated by technocratic and engineering‐driven frameworks. However, social conflict, laws, political incentives, governance structures, and other political factors have played pivotal roles in determining the fate of government‐led coastal flood risk reduction efforts. Here, we review the ways in which politics has enabled or hindered the conception, design, and implementation of coastal risk reduction projects in the U.S. We draw from the literature in natural hazards, infrastructure, political science, and climate adaptation and give supporting examples. Overall, we find that (1) multiple floods are often needed to elicit earnest planning; (2) strong and continuous leadership from elected officials is necessary to advance projects; (3) stakeholder participation during the design stage has improved outcomes; (4) legal challenges to procedural and substantive shortcomings under environmental protection statutes present an enduring obstacle to implementing megastructure proposals. 
        more » 
        « less   
        
    
                            - Award ID(s):
- 1663807
- PAR ID:
- 10449786
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
- 
            
- 
            Abstract As climate change impacts increase in frequency and magnitude, policies, and actions to promote climate change adaptation are critical to reduce negative consequences to infrastructure and society. Despite the urgency of adaptation, there have been few systematic efforts to understand the dynamics of public support for adaptation efforts at the local level in the U.S., partly because of the context- and location-specific nature of many adaptation actions. In this paper we use novel survey data to identify the role of demographics, extreme weather experience, awareness of climate change adaptation, risk perceptions, and perceived efficacy in predicting general support for local climate adaptation policy. We utilize a large national sample of U.S. adults (N = 37,088) collected over 12 waves between 2019 and 2022. We find that risk perceptions, beliefs about global warming, awareness of climate change adaptation, and perceived efficacy of local governments are key drivers of support for local adaptation policy. We provide policymakers, educators, and communicators with key guidelines for enhancing public support for adaptation policies. These insights are critical to expanding climate adaptation efforts and policy implementation at the local and national levels in the U.S.more » « less
- 
            Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing processAbstract The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term. This article is categorized under:Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Applicationmore » « less
- 
            Abstract As the global impact of climate change intensifies, there is an urgent need for equitable and efficient climate adaptation policies. Traditional approaches for allocating public resources for climate adaptation that are based on economic benefit-cost analysis often overlook the resulting distributional inequalities. In this study, we apply equity weightings to mitigate the distributional inequalities in two key building and household level adaptation strategies under changing coastal flood hazards: property buyouts and building retrofit in New York City (NYC). Under a mid-range emissions scenario, we find that unweighted benefit cost ratios applied to residential buildings are higher for richer and non-disadvantaged census tracts in NYC. The integration of income-based equity weights alters this correlation effect, which has the potential to shift investment in mitigation towards poorer and disadvantaged census tracts. This alteration is sensitive to the value of elasticity of marginal utility, the key parameter used to calculate the equity weight. Higher values of elasticity of marginal utility increase benefits for disadvantaged communities but reduce the overall economic benefits from investments, highlighting the trade-offs in incorporating equity into adaptation planning.more » « less
- 
            Conventional computational models of climate adaptation frameworks inadequately consider decision-makers’ capacity to learn, update, and improve decisions. Here, we investigate the potential of reinforcement learning (RL), a machine learning technique that efficaciously acquires knowledge from the environment and systematically optimizes dynamic decisions, in modeling and informing adaptive climate decision-making. We consider coastal flood risk mitigations for Manhattan, New York City, USA (NYC), illustrating the benefit of continuously incorporating observations of sea-level rise into systematic designs of adaptive strategies. We find that when designing adaptive seawalls to protect NYC, the RL-derived strategy significantly reduces the expected net cost by 6 to 36% under the moderate emissions scenario SSP2-4.5 (9 to 77% under the high emissions scenario SSP5-8.5), compared to conventional methods. When considering multiple adaptive policies, including accomodation and retreat as well as protection, the RL approach leads to a further 5% (15%) cost reduction, showing RL’s flexibility in coordinatively addressing complex policy design problems. RL also outperforms conventional methods in controlling tail risk (i.e., low probability, high impact outcomes) and in avoiding losses induced by misinformation about the climate state (e.g., deep uncertainty), demonstrating the importance of systematic learning and updating in addressing extremes and uncertainties related to climate adaptation.more » « less
 An official website of the United States government
An official website of the United States government 
				
			 
					 
					
