An official website of the United States government
Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) are a region of depleted ionospheric densities. EPBs are known to fluctuate both seasonally and day to day, and have been linked to changes in solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and seeding resulting from dynamics occurring at lower altitudes. Here, EPB activity is investigated over a 15-day period with overlapping coincident ground-based 630 nm oxygen airglow measurements, near-infrared hydroxyl mesospheric temperature mapper (MTM) measurements, and Rate Of change of Total Electron Content Index (ROTI) values. The data are compared with the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) reanalysis over the same time period. It is found that several days with strong EPB activity coincided with the positive/northward meridional wind phase of the quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) in the mesosphere. These initial observations indicate correlations of the QTDW phase and the occurrence rates of EPBs, and suggest a need for further investigations to assess potential causal relationships that may affect the variability and prevalence of EPBs.
more »
« less
On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting
Abstract Predicting the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) is an ongoing scientific challenge. Various methods for predicting EPBs have been developed, however, the research community is yet to scrutinize the methods for evaluating and comparing these prediction models/techniques. In this study, 12 months of co‐located GPS and UHF scintillation observations spanning South America, Atlantic/Western Africa, Southeast Asia, and Pacific sectors are used to evaluate the Generalized Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) growth rates calculated from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). Various assessment metrics are explored, including the use of significance testing on skill scores for threshold selection. The sensitivity of these skill scores to data set type (i.e., GPS versus UHF) and data set size (30, 50, 60, and 90 days/events) is also investigated. It is shown that between 50 and 90 days is required to achieve a statistically significant skill score. Methods for conducting model‐model comparisons are also explored, including the use of model “sufficiency.” However, it is shown that the results of model‐model comparisons must be carefully interpreted and can be heavily dependent on the data set used. It is also demonstrated that the observation data set must exhibit an appropriate level of daily EPB variability in order to assess the true strength of a given model/technique. Other limitations and considerations on assessment metrics and future challenges for EPB prediction studies are also discussed.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1848730
- PAR ID:
- 10452860
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Plasma blob is generally a low‐latitude phenomenon occurring at the poleward edge of equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) during post‐sunset periods. Here we report a case of midlatitude ionospheric plasma blob‐like structures occurring along with super EPBs over East Asia around sunrise during the May 2024 great geomagnetic storm. Interestingly, the blob‐like structures appeared at both the poleward and westward edges of EPBs, reached up to 40°N magnetic latitudes, and migrated westward several thousand kilometers together with the bubble. The total electron content (TEC) inside the blob‐like structures was enhanced by ∼50 TEC units relative to the ambient ionosphere. The blob‐like structure at the EPB poleward edge could be partly linked with field‐aligned plasma accumulation due to poleward development of bubble. For the blob‐like structure at the EPB west side, one possible mechanism is that it was formed and enhanced accompanying the bubble evolution and westward drift.more » « less
-
Jee, Geonhwa (Ed.)Electron density irregularities in the equatorial ionosphere at night are understood in terms of plasma bubbles, which are produced by the transport of low-density plasma from the bottomside of the F region to the topside. Equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) have been detected by various techniques on the ground and from space. One of the distinguishing characteristics of EPBs identified from long-term observations is the systematic seasonal and longitudinal variation of the EPB activity. Several hypotheses have been developed to explain the systematic EPB behavior, and now we have good knowledge about the key factors that determine the behavior. However, gaps in our understanding of the EPB climatology still remain primarily because we do not yet have the capability to observe seed perturbations and their growth simultaneously and globally. This paper reviews the occurrence climatology of EPBs identified from observations and the current understanding of its driving mechanisms.more » « less
-
We built and compared several machine learning models to predict future self-reported wellbeing labels (of mood, health, and stress) for next day and for up to 7 days in the future, using multi-modal data. The data are from surveys, wearables, mobile phones and weather information collected in a study from college students, each providing daily data for 30 or 90 days. We compared the performance of multiple models, including personalized multi-task models and deep learning models. The best personalized multi-task linear model showed mean absolute errors of 12.8, 11.9, and 13.7 on a continuous-100 pt scale for estimating next days mood, health, and stress value, while the best multi-task neural network model, applied to 3-way high/med/low classification of the wellbeing values showed F1 scores of 0.71, 0.74, and 0.66 on mood, health, and stress metrics, respectively. We found that features related to weather, and morning academic activities are strongly associated with wellbeing labels. We further found greater prediction accuracy among participants with the least fluctuations in their wellbeing labels.more » « less
-
Abstract This study characterized ocean biological carbon pump metrics in the second iteration of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) project. The analysis here focused on comparisons of global and biome‐scale regional patterns in particulate organic carbon (POC) production and sinking flux from the RECCAP2 ocean biogeochemical model ensemble against observational products derived from satellite remote sensing, sediment traps, and geochemical methods. There was generally good model‐data agreement in mean large‐scale spatial patterns, but with substantial spread across the model ensemble and observational products. The global‐integrated, model ensemble‐mean export production, taken as the sinking POC flux at 100 m (6.08 ± 1.17 Pg C yr−1), and export ratio defined as sinking flux divided by net primary production (0.154 ± 0.026) both fell at the lower end of observational estimates. Comparison with observational constraints also suggested that the model ensemble may have underestimated regional biological CO2drawdown and air‐sea CO2flux in high productivity regions. Reasonable model‐data agreement was found for global‐integrated, ensemble‐mean sinking POC flux into the deep ocean at 1,000 m (0.65 ± 0.24 Pg C yr−1) and the transfer efficiency defined as flux at 1,000 m divided by flux at 100 m (0.122 ± 0.041), with both variables exhibiting considerable regional variability. The RECCAP2 analysis presents standard ocean biological carbon pump metrics for assessing biogeochemical model skill, metrics that are crucial for further modeling efforts to resolve remaining uncertainties involving system‐level interactions between ocean physics and biogeochemistry.more » « less
