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The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to quickly respond, via public policy, to the onset of an infectious disease breakout. Deciding the type and level of interventions a population must consider to mitigate risk and keep the disease under control could mean saving thousands of lives. Many models were quickly introduced highlighting lockdowns, testing, contact tracing, travel policies, later on vaccination, and other intervention strategies along with costs of implementation. Here, we provided a framework for capturing population heterogeneity whose consideration may be crucial when developing a mitigation strategy based on non-pharmaceutical interventions. Precisely, we used age-stratified data to segment our population into groups with unique interactions that policy can affect such as school children or the oldest of the population, and formulated a corresponding optimal control problem considering the economic cost of lockdowns and deaths. We applied our model and numerical methods to census data for the state of New Jersey and determined the most important factors contributing to the cost and the optimal strategies to contained the pandemic impact.
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High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling of COVID‐19 Spreading in a Small Town
Abstract Amid the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of “what‐if” scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent‐based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID‐19 in small towns and cities, with a single‐individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY—one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID‐19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches—in hospitals or drive‐through facilities—and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision‐making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine‐grain resolution, open‐source nature, and wide range of features.
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- PAR ID:
- 10453399
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advanced Theory and Simulations
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2513-0390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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