skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Hydrological Cycle Changes Explain Weak Snowball Earth Storm Track Despite Increased Surface Baroclinicity
Abstract Simulations show that storm tracks were weaker during past cold, icy climates relative to the modern climate despite increased surface baroclinicity. Previous work explained the weak North Atlantic storm track during the Last Glacial Maximum using dry zonally asymmetric mechanisms associated with orographic forcing. Here we show that zonally symmetric mechanisms associated with the hydrological cycle explain the weak Snowball Earth storm track. The weak storm track is consistent with the decreased meridional gradient of evaporation and atmospheric shortwave absorption and can be predicted following global mean cooling and the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation. The weak storm track is also consistent with decreased latent heat release aloft in the tropics, which decreases upper tropospheric baroclinicity and mean available potential energy. Overall, both hydrological cycle mechanisms are reflected in the significant correlation between storm track intensity and the meridional surface moist static energy gradient across a range of simulated climates between modern and Snowball Earth.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1742944
PAR ID:
10455047
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
47
Issue:
20
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Slab-ocean aquaplanet simulations with thermodynamic sea ice are used to study the zonally symmetric mechanisms whereby polar sea ice loss impacts the midlatitude atmosphere. Imposed sea ice loss (difference without and with sea ice with historical CO2concentration) leads to global warming, polar amplified warming, and a weakening of poleward atmospheric energy transport and the midlatitude storm-track intensity. The simulations confirm an energetic mechanism that predicts a weakening of storm-track intensity in response to sea ice loss, given the change of surface albedo and assuming a passive ocean. Namely, sea ice loss increases the absorption of shortwave radiation by the surface (following the decrease of surface albedo), which increases surface turbulent fluxes into the atmosphere thereby weakening poleward atmospheric energy transport. The storm-track intensity weakens because it dominates poleward energy transport. The quantitative prediction underlying the mechanism captures the weakening but underestimates its amplitude. The weakening is also consistent with weaker mean available potential energy (polar amplified warming) and scales with sea ice extent, which is controlled by the slab-ocean depth. The energetic mechanism also operates in response to sea ice loss due to melting (difference of the response to quadrupled CO2with and without sea ice). Finally, the midlatitude response to sea ice loss in the aquaplanet agrees qualitatively with the response in more complex climate models. Namely, the storm-track intensity weakens and the energetic mechanism operates, but the method used to impose sea ice loss in coupled models impacts the surface response. 
    more » « less
  2. The midwinter suppression of eddy activity in the North Pacific storm track is a phenomenon that has resisted reproduction in idealized models that are initialized independently of the observed atmosphere. Attempts at explaining it have often focused on local mechanisms that depend on zonal asymmetries, such as effects of topography on the mean flow and eddies. Here an idealized aquaplanet GCM is used to demonstrate that a midwinter suppression can also occur in the activity of a statistically zonally symmetric storm track. For a midwinter suppression to occur, it is necessary that parameters, such as the thermal inertia of the upper ocean and the strength of tropical ocean energy transport, are chosen suitably to produce a pronounced seasonal cycle of the subtropical jet characteristics. If the subtropical jet is sufficiently strong and located close to the midlatitude storm track during midwinter, it dominates the upper-level flow and guides eddies equatorward, away from the low-level area of eddy generation. This inhibits the baroclinic interaction between upper and lower levels within the storm track and weakens eddy activity. However, as the subtropical jet continues to move poleward during late winter in the idealized GCM (and unlike what is observed), eddy activity picks up again, showing that the properties of the subtropical jet that give rise to the midwinter suppression are subtle. The idealized GCM simulations provide a framework within which possible mechanisms giving rise to a midwinter suppression of storm tracks can be investigated systematically. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract The Pliocene offers insights into future climate, with near‐modern atmospheric pCO2and global mean surface temperature estimated to be 3–4°C above pre‐industrial. However, the hydrological response differs between future global warming and early Pliocene climate model simulations. This discrepancy results from the use of reduced meridional and zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, based on foraminiferal Mg/Ca and Alkenone proxy evidence, to force the early Pliocene simulation. Subsequent, SST reconstructions based on the organic proxy TEX86, have found warmer temperatures in the warm pool, bringing the magnitude of the gradient reductions into dispute. We design an independent test of Pliocene SST scenarios and their hydrological cycle “fingerprints.” We use an isotope‐enabled General Circulation Model, iCAM5, to model the distribution of water isotopes in precipitation in response to four climatological SST and sea‐ice fields representing modern, abrupt 4 × CO2, late Pliocene and early Pliocene climates. We conduct a proxy‐model comparison with all the available precipitation isotope proxy data, and we identify target regions that carry precipitation isotopic fingerprints of SST gradients as priorities for additional proxy reconstructions. We identify two regions with distinct precipitation isotope (D/H) fingerprints resulting from reduced SST gradients: the Maritime Continent (D‐enriched due to reduced convective rainfall) and the Sahel (wetter, more deep convection, D‐depleted). The proxy‐model comparison using available plant wax reconstructions, mostly from Africa, is promising but inconclusive. Additional proxy reconstructions are needed in both target regions and in much of the world for significant tests of SST scenarios and dynamical linkages to the hydrological cycle. 
    more » « less
  4. null (Ed.)
    Abstract The observed zonal-mean extratropical storm tracks exhibit distinct hemispheric seasonality. Previously, the moist static energy (MSE) framework was used diagnostically to show that shortwave absorption (insolation) dominates seasonality but surface heat fluxes damp seasonality in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and amplify it in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Here we establish the causal role of surface fluxes (ocean energy storage) by varying the mixed layer depth d in zonally symmetric 1) slab-ocean aquaplanet simulations with zero ocean energy transport and 2) energy balance model (EBM) simulations. Using a scaling analysis we define a critical mixed layer depth dc and hypothesize 1) large mixed layer depths (d > dc) produce surface heat fluxes that are out of phase with shortwave absorption resulting in small storm track seasonality and 2) small mixed layer depths (d < dc) produce surface heat fluxes that are in phase with shortwave absorption resulting in large storm track seasonality. The aquaplanet simulations confirm the large mixed layer depth hypothesis and yield a useful idealization of the SH storm track. However, the small mixed layer depth hypothesis fails to account for the large contribution of the Ferrel cell and atmospheric storage. The small mixed layer limit does not yield a useful idealization of the NH storm track because the seasonality of the Ferrel cell contribution is opposite to the stationary eddy contribution in the NH. Varying the mixed layer depth in an EBM qualitatively supports the aquaplanet results. 
    more » « less
  5. The circulation of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere has changed over recent decades, with marked decreases in extratropical cyclone activity and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in summer and increases in the fraction of precipitation that is convective in all seasons. Decreasing EKE in summer is partly explained by a weakening meridional temperature gradient, but changes in vertical temperature gradients and increasing moisture also affect the mean available potential energy (MAPE), which is the energetic reservoir from which extratropical cyclones draw. Furthermore, the relation of changes in mean thermal structure and moisture to changes in convection associated with extratropical cyclones is poorly understood. Here we calculate trends in MAPE for the Northern extratropics in summer over the years 1979–2017, and we decompose MAPE into both convective and nonconvective components. Nonconvective MAPE decreased over this period, consistent with decreases in EKE and extratropical cyclone activity, but convective MAPE increased, implying an increase in the energy available to convection. Calculations with idealized atmospheres indicate that nonconvective and convective MAPE both increase with increasing mean surface temperature and decrease with decreasing meridional surface temperature gradient, but convective MAPE is relatively more sensitive to the increase in mean surface temperature. These results connect changes in the atmospheric mean state with changes in both large-scale and convective circulations, and they suggest that extratropical cyclones can weaken even as their associated convection becomes more energetic. 
    more » « less