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1. Highland forest dynamics across equatorial East Africa during the end of the African humid period

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2024.10.007  

   Ivory, Sarah J; MacDougal, Elizabeth; Mason, Andrea; Pereboom, Eleanor; Garelick, Sloane; Ficken, Katherine; Wooller, Matthew J; Nakileza, Bob R; Russell, James (October 2024, Quaternary International)

   Tropical mountain ecosystems hold immense ecological and economic importance, yet they face disproportionate risks from shifting tropical climates. For example, present-day montane vegetation of East Africa is characterized by different plant species that grow in and are restricted to certain elevations due to environmental tolerances. As climate changes and temperature/rainfall zones move on mountains, these species must rapidly adjust their ranges or risk extinction. Paleoenvironmental records offer valuable insights into past climate and ecosystem dynamics, aiding predictions for ongoing climate change impacts. In particular, warming and wetting in tropical East Africa during the mid-Holocene resulted in both lowland and highland forest expansion. However, the relative impacts of rainfall and temperature change on montane ecosystems along with the influence of lowland forest expansion on montane communities is not completely understood. We use fossil pollen to study the vegetation changes in two lakes at different altitudes in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda: Lake Mahoma (Montane Forest belt) and Upper Kachope Lake (Afroalpine belt). Further, using the newly relaunched African Pollen Database and recent temperature reconstructions, we provide a regional synthesis of vegetation changes in the Rwenzori and then compare this with changes observed from other equatorial East African montane sites (particularly Mt Kenya). In the early to mid-Holocene in the Rwenzori Mountains, trees common today in lowland forests dominated, driven largely by warmer temperatures. After 4000 years ago (4ka), Afromontane forest trees along with grasses progressively replaced lowland trees. Not all sites experienced identical transitions. For instance, at Lake Rutundu on Mt Kenya at the same elevation as Lake Mahoma, bamboo expansion preceded Afromontane forest growth, likely influenced by variations in fire. Variance partitioning indicates that each site responded differently to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, these site-specific ecological responses underscore the importance of considering biogeographic legacies as management strategies are developed, despite similarities in modern ecology. 

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2. Both life‐history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range‐wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13990  

   DeMarche, Megan L.; Doak, Daniel F.; Morris, William F. (December 2017, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species‐wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life‐history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species‐wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species’ range—not only those at the trailing range edge—could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species’ latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade‐off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species’ ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species’ abundance and distribution. 

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3. Soil microbial communities along elevational gradients in the Madrean Sky Islands

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.16596  

   Martinez, Adalee; Schiro, Gabriele; Barberán, Albert (February 2024, Environmental Microbiology)

   Abstract The Madrean Sky Islands are mountain ranges isolated by a ‘desert sea’. This area is a biodiversity hotspot currently threatened by climate change. Here, we studied soil microbial communities along elevational gradients in eight Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona (USA). Our results showed that while elevational microbial richness gradients were weak and not consistent across different mountains, soil properties strongly influenced microbial community composition (overall composition and the abundance of key functional groups) along elevational gradients. In particular, warming is associated with a higher abundance of soil‐borne fungal plant pathogens that concomitantly might facilitate upward elevational shifts of plant species released from negative plant–soil feedbacks. Furthermore, projected warming and drought in the area aggravated by anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on mountain tops (and thus, decreasing nitrogen limitation) can enhance a shift from ectomycorrhizal to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Overall, these results indicate that climate change effects on plant–soil interactions might have profound ecosystem consequences. 

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4. Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1559  

   Lewis, William B.; Cooper, Robert J.; Chandler, Richard B.; Chitwood, Ryan W.; Cline, Mason H.; Hallworth, Michael T.; Hatt, Joanna L.; Hepinstall‐Cymerman, Jeff; Kaiser, Sara A.; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L.; et al (January 2023, Ecological Monographs)

   Abstract Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions. 

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5. Variation in the seasonal germination niche across an elevational gradient: the role of germination cueing in current and future climates

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1002ajb2.1425  

   Gremer, J.R.; Chiono, A; Suglia, E; Bontrager, M.; Okafor, L.; Schmitt, J (January 2020, AmericanEurasian journal of botany)

   The timing of germination has profound impacts on fitness, population dynamics, and species ranges. Many plants have evolved responses to seasonal environmental cues to time germination with favorable conditions; these responses interact with temporal variation in local climate to drive the seasonal climate niche and may reflect local adaptation. Here, we examined germination responses to temperature cues in Streptanthus tortuosus populations across an elevational gradient. Methods Using common garden experiments, we evaluated differences among populations in response to cold stratification (chilling) and germination temperature and related them to observed germination phenology in the field. We then explored how these responses relate to past climate at each site and the implications of those patterns under future climate change. Results Populations from high elevations had stronger stratification requirements for germination and narrower temperature ranges for germination without stratification. Differences in germination responses corresponded with elevation and variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation across populations. Further, they corresponded with germination phenology in the field; low‐elevation populations germinated in the fall without chilling, whereas high‐elevation populations germinated after winter chilling and snowmelt in spring and summer. Climate‐change forecasts indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpack, which will likely alter germination cues and timing, particularly for high‐elevation populations. Conclusions The seasonal germination niche for S. tortuosus is highly influenced by temperature and varies across the elevational gradient. Climate change will likely affect germination timing, which may cascade to influence trait expression, fitness, and population persistence. 

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