Five extreme precipitation indicators were calculated on an annual basis for 1890 through 2013 and analysed to determine spatial patterns and temporal trends in the frequency and magnitude of observed extreme precipitation events in Kansas located in the central United States. Indicators were selected from the list of the World Meteorological Organization–Commission for Climatology (WMO–CCL) and the Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR). The indicators included the number of days with precipitation greater than or equal to 10 mm/day (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD; days with precipitation lower that 1 mm), maximum 5‐day precipitation total (R5D), and simple daily intensity index (SDII) which is the annual precipitation total divided by number of days with precipitation greater than or equal to 1 mm, and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile (R95T) based on the period 1961–1990. Positive trends in the results were found for a majority of stations for R10, R5D, SDII, and R95T. Consecutive dry days was the only index that had a negative trend at a majority of stations. Spatial pattern analysis indicates greater changes in frequencies and magnitudes for eastern Kansas. Results from this study highlight observed climate shifts in precipitation patterns with a tendency towards greater and more frequent extreme precipitation in eastern Kansas and a tendency towards drier conditions in western Kansas. These hydroclimatic adjustments can produce costly impacts in areas that include flood management, hydraulic structures, water availability throughout the year, agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health.
In the eastern United States, the empirical probability distribution of extreme daily precipitation comprises heavy rainfall events stemming from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). At many locations, these events influence estimates of extreme value statistics (e.g., 100‐year event), thus have important bearing on the sizing of flood protection infrastructure and, in general, flood risk management and preparedness. Consequently, a characterization of location specific and regional patterns in precipitation extremes and changes therein has salience for both scientific and engineering concerns. To this end, analysis of seasonal and annual maximum daily precipitation at 667 long‐term stations across the eastern United States was pursued to ascertain recent changes in the extreme events over the 1950–2011 period. Three key results from this study illuminate less understood facets of recent changes in precipitation extremes: (a) an overall increase in the fraction of seasonal and annual maximum precipitation events linked to TCs, (b) a dramatic increase in the correlation between Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index and the leading principal component of extreme precipitation, and (c) changes in the spatial patterns of regions with highest TC‐related risk for heavy precipitation.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10457664
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Climatology
- Volume:
- 40
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0899-8418
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 3486-3499
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Temporal changes in the seasonality of extreme precipitation, and possible teleconnections between the seasonality of extreme precipitation and large‐scale climate patterns are not well understood. In this study, we investigated temporal changes in seasonality of annual daily maximum (ADM) and monthly maximum (MM) precipitation indices over the period 1951–2014 for 1,108 stations across the contiguous USA. We also examined seasonality of extreme precipitation during negative and positive phases of three major oscillations: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Northern Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Our results show that many climate regions within the contiguous USA display distinct seasonality for both ADM and MM. Comparison of seasonality between two historical records of equal length, that is, before and after 1981, shows great spatial variability across the contiguous USA. While a spatial coherence of change in the mean date of occurrence of extreme precipitation across a large area is not visible, a cluster of stations showing decrease in strength of seasonality for the recent period is concentrated in the eastern Gulf Coast and coastal sites of Northeast and Northwest regions. Extreme precipitation seasonality during negative and positive phases of three climate indices revealed that large‐scale climate variabilities have a strong influence on the mean date of occurrence of extreme precipitation but generally weak influence on the strength of seasonality in the contiguous USA. Results from our study might be helpful for sustainable water resource management, flood risk mitigation, and prediction of future precipitation seasonality.
-
more » « less
Abstract The Mississippi River basin drains nearly one-half of the contiguous United States, and its rivers serve as economic corridors that facilitate trade and transportation. Flooding remains a perennial hazard on the major tributaries of the Mississippi River basin, and reducing the economic and humanitarian consequences of these events depends on improving their seasonal predictability. Here, we use climate reanalysis and river gauge data to document the evolution of floods on the Missouri and Ohio Rivers—the two largest tributaries of the Mississippi River—and how they are influenced by major modes of climate variability centered in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. We show that the largest floods on these tributaries are preceded by the advection and convergence of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico following distinct atmospheric mechanisms, where Missouri River floods are associated with heavy spring and summer precipitation events delivered by the Great Plains low-level jet, whereas Ohio River floods are associated with frontal precipitation events in winter when the North Atlantic subtropical high is anomalously strong. Further, we demonstrate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can serve as a precursor for floods on these rivers by mediating antecedent soil moisture, with Missouri River floods often preceded by a warm eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Ohio River floods often preceded by a cool eastern tropical Pacific (La Niña) in the months leading up peak discharge. We also use recent floods in 2019 and 2021 to demonstrate how linking flood hazard to sea surface temperature anomalies holds potential to improve seasonal predictability of hydrologic extremes on these rivers.
-
more » « less
Abstract Much of our current risk assessment, especially for extreme events and natural disasters, comes from the assumption that the likelihood of future extreme events can be predicted based on the past. However, as global temperatures rise, established climate ranges may no longer be applicable, as historic records for extremes such as heat waves and floods may no longer accurately predict the changing future climate. To assess extremes (present‐day and future) over the contiguous United States, we used NOAA's Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which evaluates extremes in maximum and minimum temperature, extreme one‐day precipitation, days without precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The CEI is a spatially sensitive index that uses percentile‐based thresholds rather than absolute values to determine climate “extremeness” and is thus well‐suited to compare extreme climate across regions. We used regional climate model data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to compare a late 20th century reference period to a mid‐21st century “business as usual” (SRES A2) greenhouse gas‐forcing scenario. Results show a universal increase in extreme hot temperatures across all models, with annual average maximum and minimum temperatures exceeding 90th percentile thresholds consistently across the continental United States. Results for precipitation indicators have greater spatial variability from model to model, but indicate an overall movement towards less frequent but more extreme precipitation days in the future. Due to this difference in response between temperature and precipitation, the mid‐21st century CEI is primarily an index of temperature extremes, with 90th percentile temperatures contributing disproportionately to the overall increase in climate extremeness. We also examine the efficacy of the PDSI in this context in comparison to other drought indices.
-
more » « less
Abstract The term “weather whiplash” was recently coined to describe abrupt swings in weather conditions from one extreme to another, such as from a prolonged, frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth or from drought to heavy precipitation. These events are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, and daily activities. In this study, we propose and demonstrate a novel metric to identify weather whiplash events (WWEs) and track their frequency over time. We define a WWE as a transition from one persistent continental‐scale circulation regime to another distinctly different pattern, as determined using an objective pattern clustering analysis called self‐organizing maps. We focus on the domain spanning North America and the eastern N. Pacific Ocean. A matrix of representative atmospheric patterns in 500‐hPa geopotential height anomalies is created from 72 years of daily fields. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with long‐duration events (LDEs) (defined as lasting four or more days) in each pattern, as well as the associated extremes in temperature and precipitation. A WWE is detected when the pattern 2 days following a LDE is substantially different, measured using internal matrix distances and thresholds. Changes in WWE frequency are assessed objectively based on reanalysis and historical climate model simulations, and for the future using climate model projections. Temporal changes in the future under representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing are more robust than those in recent decades. We find consistent increases in WWEs originating in patterns with an anomalously warm Arctic and decreases in cold‐Arctic patterns.
