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Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols are hazardous to human health but have helped offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs), creating a potential regulatory tradeoff. As countries implement their GHG reduction targets under the Paris climate agreement, the co‐emissions of aerosols and their precursors will also change. Since these co‐emissions vary by country and by economic sector, each country will face different tradeoffs between aerosol‐driven health or temperature co‐benefits. We combine simple parameterizations of physical processes and health outcomes to examine three idealized climate policy approaches that are consistent with the Paris Agreement targets, which (i) optimize for local air quality, (ii) reduce global temperature change, or (iii) reduce emissions equally from all domestic economic sectors. We evaluate aerosol impacts on premature mortality and global mean temperature change under these three policy approaches and find that by 2030 the three policies yield differences of over 1 million annual premature deaths and global temperature differences of the same magnitude as those from GHG reductions. We also show that implementing equal reductions between all economic sectors can actually result in less beneficial health and temperature outcomes than either of the other options, especially in less industrialized regions. We therefore conclude that aerosol‐related co‐benefits and aerosol accounting guidelines should be explicitly considered in setting international climate policy.
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Geohealth Policy Benefits Are Mediated by Interacting Natural, Engineered, and Social Processes
Abstract Interest in health implications of Earth science research has significantly increased. Articles frequently dispense policy advice, for example, to reduce human contaminant exposures. Recommendations such as fish consumption advisories rarely reflect causal reasoning around tradeoffs or anticipate how scientific information will be received and processed by the media or vulnerable communities. Health is the product of interacting social and physical processes, yet predictable responses are often overlooked. Analysis of physical and social mechanisms, and health and non‐health tradeoffs, is needed to achieve policy benefits rather than “policy impact.” Dedicated funding mechanisms would improve the quality and availability of these analyses.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2023046
- PAR ID:
- 10465679
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- GeoHealth
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2471-1403
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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