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Abstract Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimateGenomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype–environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest–savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species‐specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.
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Coastal futures: New framings, many questions, some ways forward
Abstract Although coasts are frequently seen as at the frontline of near-future environmental risk, there is more to the understanding of the future of coastal environments than a simple interaction between increasing hazards (particularly related to global sea level rise) and increasing exposure and vulnerability of coastal populations. The environment is both multi-hazard and regionally differentiated, and coastal populations, in what should be seen as a coupled social–ecological–physical system, are both affected by, and themselves modify, the impact of coastal dynamics. As the coupled dance between human decisions and coastal environmental change unfolds over the coming decades, transdisciplinary approaches will be required to come to better decisions on identifying and following sustainable coastal management pathways, including the promotion of innovative restoration activities. Inputs from indigenous knowledge systems and local communities will be particularly important as these stakeholders are crucial actors in the implementation of ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1715638
- PAR ID:
- 10468439
- Publisher / Repository:
- Coastal Futures
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures
- Volume:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2754-7205
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1017/cft.2023.22
