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1. Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4  

   Twilley, Robert R. ; Bentley, Samuel J. ; Chen, Qin ; Edmonds, Douglas A. ; Hagen, Scott C. ; Lam, Nina S.-N. ; Willson, Clinton S. ; Xu, Kehui ; Braud, DeWitt ; Hampton Peele, R. ; et al ( May 2016 , Sustainability Science)

   Abstract River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p\0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and\0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L). 

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2. Hydrological Connectivity Controls Magnitude and Distribution of Sediment Deposition Within the Deltaic Islands of Wax Lake Delta, LA, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006136  

   Olliver, E. A. ; Edmonds, D. A. ( September 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   Relative sea‐level rise in the coming century will increase the risk of flooding and shoreline retreat on most major river deltas. River deltas can counteract flooding and shoreline retreat by depositing sediment on their surface. Yet, it is unclear what processes influence sedimentation and its variability on deltaic surfaces. Towards this end, we conducted a numerical modeling study in Delft3D to understand how floods, tides, and vegetation affect sedimentation rates and their spatial variability on islands in a deltaic system. Our experiments use a fully calibrated and validated hydrodynamic model of Wax Lake Delta, LA, USA. We analyzed eight numerical experiments that include a control simulation with no floods, tides, or vegetation, and seven simulations where we add in floods, tides, and vegetation. Our results clearly show that floods and tides have opposing effects. Compared to the control, floods introduce more sediment and increase the mean sedimentation rate, whereas, tides spread sediment over a larger area and decrease the mean sedimentation rate. Vegetation has a negligible effect on mean sedimentation rates but does shift sedimentation closer to the shoreline and to higher elevations. Overall, the amount of sedimentation on an island depends on its hydrological connectivity with the surrounding distributary channels. These results show that hydrologically well‐connected deltaic islands subject to tidal and riverine flooding aggrade their surfaces more evenly, which may be ideal for preventing inundation from relative sea‐level rise.

    

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3. Dominant process zones in a mixed fluvial–tidal delta are morphologically distinct

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-809-2020  

   Perignon, Mariela ; Adams, Jordan ; Overeem, Irina ; Passalacqua, Paola ( January 2020 , Earth Surface Dynamics)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract. The morphology of deltas is determined by the spatial extent and variability of the geomorphic processes that shape them. While in some cases resilient, deltas are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic forces, such as sea level rise and land use change, which can drastically alter the rates and patterns of sediment transport. Quantifying process patterns can improve our predictive understanding of how different zones within delta systems will respond to future change. Available remotely sensed imagery can help, but appropriate tools are needed for pattern extraction and analysis. We present a method for extracting information about the nature and spatial extent of active geomorphic processes across deltas with 10 parameters quantifying the geometry of each of 1239 islands and the channels around them using machine learning. The method consists of a two-step unsupervised machine learning algorithm that clusters islands into spatially continuous zones based on the 10 morphological metrics extracted from remotely sensed imagery. By applying this method to the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, we find that the system can be divided into six major zones. Classification results show that active fluvial island construction and bar migration processes are limited to relatively narrow zones along the main Ganges River and Brahmaputra and Meghna corridors, whereas zones in the mature upper delta plain with smaller fluvial distributary channels stand out as their own morphometric class. The classification also shows good correspondence with known gradients in the influence of tidal energy with distinct classes for islands in the backwater zone and in the purely tidally controlled region of the delta. Islands at the delta front under the mixed influence of tides, fluvial–estuarine construction, and local wave reworking have their own characteristic shape and channel configuration. The method is not able to distinguish between islands with embankments (polders) and natural islands in the nearby mangrove forest (Sundarbans), suggesting that human modifications have not yet altered the gross geometry of the islands beyond their previous “natural” morphology or that the input data (time, resolution) used in this study are preventing the identification of a human signature. These results demonstrate that machine learning and remotely sensed imagery are useful tools for identifying the spatial patterns of geomorphic processes across delta systems. 

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4. Dominant process zones in a mixed fluvial-tidal delta are morphologically distinct

   Perignon, M. ; Adams, J. ; Overeem, I. ; Passalacqua, P. ( April 2020 , Earth surface dynamics discussions)

   The morphology of deltas is determined by the spatial extent and variability of the geomorphic processes that shape them. While in some cases resilient, deltas are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic forces, such as sea level rise and land use change, which can drastically alter the rates and patterns of sediment transport. Quantifying process patterns can improve our predictive understanding of how different zones within delta systems will respond to future change. Available remotely sensed imagery can help but appropriate tools are needed for pattern extraction and analysis. We present a method for extracting information about the nature and spatial extent of active geomorphic processes across deltas from ten parameters quantifying the geometry of each of 1239 islands and the channels around them using machine learning. The method consists of a two-step unsupervised machine learning algorithm that clusters islands into spatially continuous zones based on the ten morphological metrics extracted from remotely sensed imagery. By applying this method to the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, we find that the system can be divided into six major zones. Classification results show that active fluvial island construction and bar migration processes are limited to relatively narrow zones along the main Ganges River and Brahmaputra and Meghna corridors, whereas zones in the mature upper delta plain, with smaller fluvial distributary channels stand out as their own morphometric class. The classification also shows good correspondence with known gradients in the influence of tidal energy with distinct classes for islands in the backwater zone and in the purely tidally-controlled region of the delta. Islands at the delta front, under the mixed influence of tides, fluvial-estuarine construction, and local wave reworking have their own characteristic shape and channel configuration. The method does not distinguish between islands with embankments (polders) and natural islands in the nearby mangrove forest (Sundarbans), suggesting that human modifications have not yet altered the gross geometry of the islands beyond their previous natural morphology. These results demonstrate that machine learning and remotely sensed imagery are useful tools for identifying the spatial patterns of geomorphic processes across delta systems. 

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5. Integrated uplift, subsidence, erosion and deposition in a tightly coupled source‐to‐sink system, Pagliara basin, northeastern Sicily, Italy

   https://doi.org/10.1111/bre.12845  

   Pavano, F. ; Pazzaglia, F. J. ; Rittenour, T. M. ; Catalano, S. ; Corbett, L. B. ; Bierman, P. ( January 2024 , Basin Research)

   How tectonic forcing, expressed as base level change, is encoded in the stratigraphic and geomorphic records of coupled source‐to‐sink systems remains uncertain. Using sedimentological, geochronological and geomorphic approaches, we describe the relationship between transient topographic change and sediment deposition for a low‐storage system forced by rapid rock uplift. We present five new luminescence ages and two terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide paleo‐erosion rates for the late Pleistocene Pagliara fan‐delta complex and we model corresponding base level fall history and erosion of the source catchment located on the Ionian flank of the Peloritani Mountains (NE‐Sicily, Italy). The Pagliara delta complex is part of the broader Messina Gravel‐and‐Sands lithostratigraphic unit that outcrops along the Peloritani coastal belt as extensional basins have been recently inverted by both normal faults and regional uplift at the Messina Straits. The deltas exposed at the mouth of the Pagliara River have constructional tops at ca. 300 m a.s.l. and onlap steeply east‐dipping bedrock at the coast to thickness between ca. 100 and 200 m. Five infrared‐stimulated luminescence (IRSL) ages collected from the delta range in age from ca. 327 to 208 ka and indicate a vertical long‐term sediment accumulation rate as rapid as ca. 2.2 cm/yr during MIS 7. Two cosmogenic¹⁰Be concentrations measured in samples of delta sediment indicate paleo‐erosion rates during MIS 8–7 near or slightly higher than the modern rates of ca. 1 mm/yr. Linear inversion of Pagliara fluvial topography indicates an unsteady base level fall history in phase with eustasy that is superimposed on a longer, tectonically driven trend that doubled in rate from ca. 0.95 to 1.8 mm/yr in the past 150 ky. The combination of footwall uplift rate and eustasy determines the accommodation space history to trap the fan‐deltas at the Peloritani coast in hanging wall basins, which are now inverted, uplifted and exposed hundreds of metres above the sea level.

    

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