An official website of the United States government
Abstract Forecasting the arrival time of Earth‐directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics‐based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model parameters and reduce the uncertainty in subsequent model predictions. In this study, we show that CME simulations conducted with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can be assimilated with SOHO LASCO white‐light (WL) observations and solar wind observations at L1 prior to the CME eruption to improve the prediction of CME arrival time. The L1 observations are used to constrain the model of the solar wind background into which the CME is launched. Average speed of CME shock front over propagation angles are extracted from both synthetic WL images from the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) and the WL observations. We observe a strong rank correlation between the average WL speed and CME arrival time, with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients larger than 0.90 for three events occurring during different phases of the solar cycle. This enables us to develop a Bayesian framework to filter ensemble simulations using WL observations, which is found to reduce the mean absolute error of CME arrival time prediction from about 13.4 to 5.1 hr. The results show the potential of assimilating readily available L1 and WL observations within hours of the CME eruption to construct optimal ensembles of Sun‐to‐Earth CME simulations.
more »
« less
Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. II. Interplanetary Propagation to 1 au
Abstract We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact at Earth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on 2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filament eruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event could be classified as a so-called “problem storm” because it lacked the usual solar signatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEs that often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solar observations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model the propagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using 3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three different configurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed and modeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal flux rope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may be more or less useful depending on the CME–observer geometry when evaluating the space weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large size and high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of both advancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and future improvements to space weather forecasting.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2147399
- PAR ID:
- 10474188
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 958
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 91
- Size(s):
- Article No. 91
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract On 2022 February 15, an impressive filament eruption was observed off the solar eastern limb from three remote-sensing viewpoints, namely, Earth, STEREO-A, and Solar Orbiter. In addition to representing the most-distant observed filament at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths—captured by Solar Orbiter's field of view extending to above 6R⊙—this event was also associated with the release of a fast (∼2200 km s−1) coronal mass ejection (CME) that was directed toward BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe. These two probes were separated by 2° in latitude, 4° in longitude, and 0.03 au in radial distance around the time of the CME-driven shock arrival in situ. The relative proximity of the two probes to each other and the Sun (∼0.35 au) allows us to study the mesoscale structure of CMEs at Mercury's orbit for the first time. We analyze similarities and differences in the main CME-related structures measured at the two locations, namely, the interplanetary shock, the sheath region, and the magnetic ejecta. We find that, despite the separation between the two spacecraft being well within the typical uncertainties associated with determination of CME geometric parameters from remote-sensing observations, the two sets of in situ measurements display some profound differences that make understanding the overall 3D CME structure particularly challenging. Finally, we discuss our findings within the context of space weather at Mercury's distance and in terms of the need to investigate solar transients via spacecraft constellations with small separations, which has been gaining significant attention during recent years.more » « less
-
Abstract Modeling the impact of space weather events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial to protecting critical infrastructure. The Space Weather Modeling Framework is a state‐of‐the‐art framework that offers full Sun‐to‐Earth simulations by computing the background solar wind, CME propagation, and magnetospheric impact. However, reliable long‐term predictions of CME events require uncertainty quantification (UQ) and data assimilation. We take the first steps by performing global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and UQ for background solar wind simulations produced by the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) for two Carrington rotations: CR2152 (solar maximum) and CR2208 (solar minimum). We conduct GSA by computing Sobol' indices that quantify contributions from model parameter uncertainty to the variance of solar wind speed and density at 1 au, both crucial quantities for CME propagation and strength. Sobol' indices also allow us to rank and retain only the most important parameters, which aids in the construction of smaller ensembles for the reduced‐dimension parameter space. We present an efficient procedure for computing the Sobol' indices using polynomial chaos expansion surrogates and space‐filling designs. The PCEs further enable inexpensive forward UQ. Overall, we identify three important model parameters: the multiplicative factor applied to the magnetogram, Poynting flux per magnetic field strength constant used at the inner boundary, and the coefficient of the perpendicular correlation length in the turbulent cascade model in AWSoM.more » « less
-
Abstract The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of “quieter” status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, that is, in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high‐speed stream (HSS) on their way toward Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote‐sensing and in‐situ data supported by heliospheric modeling suggests that CME–HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during “simpler” solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars.more » « less
-
Abstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high speed streams (HSSs) are large‐scale transient structures that routinely propagate away from the Sun. Individually, they can cause space weather effects at the Earth, or elsewhere in space, but many of the largest events occur when these structures interact during their interplanetary propagation. We present the initial coupling of Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI), a model for CME evolution, with Mostly Empirical Operational Wind with a High Speed Stream, a time‐dependent HSS model that can serve as a background for the OSPREI CME. We present several improvements made to OSPREI in order to take advantage of the new time‐dependent, higher‐dimension background. This includes an update in the drag calculation and the ability to determine the rotation of a yaw‐like angle. We present several theoretical case studies, describing the difference in the CME behavior between a HSS background and a quiescent one. This behavior includes interplanetary CME propagation, expansion, deformation, and rotation, as well as the formation of a CME‐driven sheath. We also determine how the CME behavior changes with the HSS size and initial front distance. Generally, for a fast CME, we see that the drag is greatly reduced within the HSS, leading to faster CMEs and shorter travel times. The drag reappears stronger if the CME reaches the stream interaction region or upstream solar wind, leading to a stronger shock with more compression until the CME sufficiently decelerates. We model a CME–HSS interaction event observed by Parker Solar Probe in January 2022. The model improvements create a better match to the observed in situ profiles.more » « less
