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Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt—one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world—combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-N⋅y−1 to 585 Gg N2O-N⋅y−1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-N⋅y−1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.
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Observed changes in stratospheric circulation: decreasing lifetime of N 2 O, 2005–2021
Abstract. Using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observationsof stratospheric nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone, and temperature from 2005through 2021, we calculate the atmospheric lifetime of N2O to bedecreasing at a rate of −2.1 ± 1.2 %/decade. This decrease is occurring because the N2O abundances in the middle tropical stratosphere, where N2O is photochemically destroyed, are increasing ata faster rate than the bulk N2O in the lower atmosphere. The causeappears to be a more vigorous stratospheric circulation, which modelspredict to be a result of climate change. If the observed trends in lifetime and implied emissions continue, then the change in N2O over the21st century will be 27 % less than those projected with a fixed lifetime, and the impact on global warming and ozone depletion will beproportionately lessened. Because global warming is caused in part byN2O, this finding is an example of a negative climate–chemistry feedback.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2135749
- PAR ID:
- 10475231
- Publisher / Repository:
- EGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Volume:
- 23
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 1680-7324
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 843 to 849
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023
