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1. A species-specific, site-sensitive maximum stand density index model for Pacific Northwest conifer forests

   https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2020-0426  

   Heiderman, Ryan R.; Kimsey, Mark J. (August 2021, Canadian Journal of Forest Research)

   null (Ed.)

   Maximum stand density index (SDI MAX ) models were developed for important Pacific Northwest conifers of western Oregon and Washington, USA, based on site and species influences and interactions. Inventory and monitoring data from numerous federal, state, and private forest management groups were obtained throughout the region to ensure a wide coverage of site characteristics. These observations include information on tree size, number, and species composition. The effects and influence on the self-thinning frontier of plot-specific factors such as climate, topography, soils, and geology, as well as species composition, were evaluated based on geographic location using a multistep approach to analysis involving linear quantile mixed models, random forest, and stochastic frontier functions. The self-thinning slope of forest stands dominated by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) was found to be –1.517 and that of stands dominated by western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) was found to be –1.461, leading to regionwide modelled SDI MAX values at the 95th percentile of 1728 and 1952 trees per hectare, respectively. The regional model of site-specific SDI MAX will support forest managers in decision-making regarding density management and species selection to more efficiently utilize site resources toward healthy, productive forests. 

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2. Exceptional variability in historical fire regimes across a western Cascades landscape, Oregon, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4735  

   Johnston, James D.; Schmidt, Micah R.; Merschel, Andrew G.; Downing, William M.; Coughlan, Michael R.; Lewis, David G. (December 2023, Ecosphere)

   Abstract Detailed information about the historical range of variability in wildfire activity informs adaptation to future climate and disturbance regimes. Here, we describe one of the first annually resolved reconstructions of historical (1500–1900 ce) fire occurrence in coast Douglas‐fir dominated forests of the west slope of the Cascade Range in western Oregon. Mean fire return intervals (MFRIs) across 16 sites within our study area ranged from 6 to 165 years. Variability in MFRIs was strongly associated with average maximum summer vapor pressure deficit. Fire occurred infrequently in Douglas‐fir forest stands seral to mountain hemlock or silver fir, but fire frequency was much shorter than predicted by theory in other forest types. MFRIs within Douglas‐fir stands seral to western hemlock or grand fir ranged from 19 to 45 years, and MFRIs in stands seral to Douglas‐fir ranged from 6 to 11 years. There was little synchrony in fire occurrence or tree establishment across 16 sites separated by 4 km. The lack of synchrony in fire suggests that large, wind‐driven fire events that are often considered to be characteristic of coast Douglas‐fir forests were not an important driver of succession in our study area during the last ~400–500 years. Climate was more arid than normal during fire years in most forest types, but historical fire in stands seral to Douglas‐fir was strongly associated with antecedent moisture and less strongly associated with drought. We interpret the extraordinary tempo of fire we observed in stands seral to Douglas‐fir and the unique climate pattern associated with fire in these stands to be indicative of Indigenous fire stewardship. This study provides evidence of far more frequent historical fire in coast Douglas‐fir forests than assumed by managers or scientists—including some of the most frequent fire return intervals documented in the Pacific Northwest. We recommend additional research across the western Cascades to create a comprehensive account of historical fire in highly productive forests with significant cultural, economic, and ecological importance. 

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3. Modeling Present and Future Permafrost Distribution at the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005355  

   Debolskiy, M. V.; Nicolsky, D. J.; Hock, R.; Romanovsky, V. E. (August 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   Abstract Permafrost, a key component of Arctic ecosystems, is currently affected by climate warming and anticipated to undergo further significant changes in this century. The most pronounced changes are expected to occur in the transition zone between the discontinuous and continuous types of permafrost. We apply a transient temperature dynamic model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of permafrost conditions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska—a region currently characterized by continuous permafrost in its northern part and discontinuous permafrost in the south. We calibrate model parameters using a variational data assimilation technique exploiting historical ground temperature measurements collected across the study area. The model is then evaluated with a separate control set of the ground temperature data. Calibrated model parameters are distributed across the domain according to ecosystem types. The forcing applied to our model consists of historic monthly temperature and precipitation data and climate projections based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Simulated near‐surface permafrost extent for the 2000–2010 decade agrees well with existing permafrost maps and previous Alaska‐wide modeling studies. Future projections suggest a significant increase (3.0°C under RCP 4.5 and 4.4°C under RCP 8.5 at the 2 m depth) in mean decadal ground temperature on average for the peninsula for the 2090–2100 decade when compared to the period of 2000–2010. Widespread degradation of the near‐surface permafrost is projected to reduce its extent at the end of the 21st century to only 43% of the peninsula's area under RCP 4.5 and 8% under RCP 8.5. 

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4. Widespread Advances in Corn and Soybean Phenology in Response to Future Climate Change Across the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JG008266  

   Yang, Yanjun; Tao, Bo; Ruane, Alex C; Shen, Chaopeng; Matteson, David S; Cousin, Rémi; Ren, Wei (April 2025, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Crop phenology regulates seasonal carbon and water fluxes between croplands and the atmosphere and provides essential information for monitoring and predicting crop growth dynamics and productivity. However, under rapid climate change and more frequent extreme events, future changes in crop phenological shifts have not been well investigated and fully considered in earth system modeling and regional climate assessments. Here, we propose an innovative approach combining remote sensing imagery and machine learning (ML) with climate and survey data to predict future crop phenological shifts across the US corn and soybean systems. Specifically, our projected findings demonstrate distinct acceleration patterns—under the RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 scenarios, corn planting, silking, maturity, and harvesting stages would significantly advance by 0.94/1.66, 1.13/2.45, 0.89/2.68, and 1.04/2.16 days/decade during 2021–2099, respectively. Soybeans exhibit more muted responses with phenological stages showing relatively smaller negative trends (0.59, 1.08, 0.07, and 0.64 days/decade under the RCP 4.5 vs. 1.24, 1.53, 0.92, and 1.04 days/decade under the RCP 8.5). These spatially explicit projections illustrate how crop phenology would respond to future climate change, highlighting widespread and progressively earlier phenological timing. Based on these findings, we call for a specific effort to quantify the cascading effects of future phenology shifts on crop yield and carbon, water, and energy balances and, accordingly, craft targeted adaptive strategies. 

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5. Utility of in situ ion‐exchange membranes to assess nutrient availability, productivity, and fertilizer response of coastal Douglas‐fir of the Pacific Northwest

   https://doi.org/10.1002/saj2.20654  

   Littke, K M; Holub, S M; Bremer, E; Turnblom, E (May 2024, Soil Science Society of America Journal)

   Abstract Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii(Mirb.) Franco] is the predominant forest plantation species in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), with site productivity and fertilizer response influenced by climate and soil variations. This study investigates the utility of in situ 12‐week supply measurements of nitrogen (N), calcium (Ca), and phosphorus (P) to ion‐exchange resins (specifically Plant Root Simulator [PRS] probes) to estimate carbon (C):N ratios, soil nutrient contents (0–1 m), foliar nutrient concentrations, Douglas‐fir productivity (site index and basal area mean annual increment), and fertilizer volume response. PRS nutrient supply rates were correlated with N, Ca, and P soil nutrient contents (0–1 m), C:N ratios, and foliar nutrient concentrations. Low PRS NO₃supply rates (<25 mg N·m⁻²·burial period⁻¹) were correlated with lower Douglas‐fir productivity and greater fertilizer volume response. PRS NO₃supply rates performed as well as total soil N contents and foliar N concentrations at estimating volume growth response to fertilizer. Twelve weeks after fertilization, PRS NO₃, NH₄, and Ca supply rates were significantly elevated compared to the unfertilized treatment. This research found that PRS probes were an effective in situ tool and are recommended for understanding N, Ca, and P nutrient availabilities, site productivity, and fertilizer response in Douglas‐fir plantations and for developing fertilizer prescriptions. 

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