When multiple measures are collected repeatedly over time, redundancy typically exists among responses. The envelope method was recently proposed to reduce the dimension of responses without loss of information in regression with multivariate responses. It can gain substantial efficiency over the standard least squares estimator. In this paper, we generalize the envelope method to mixed effects models for longitudinal data with possibly unbalanced design and time‐varying predictors. We show that our model provides more efficient estimators than the standard estimators in mixed effects models. Improved accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method over the standard mixed effects model estimator are observed in both the simulations and the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study.
more »
« less
Envelopes for multivariate linear regression with linearly constrained coefficients
Abstract A constrained multivariate linear model is a multivariate linear model with the columns of its coefficient matrix constrained to lie in a known subspace. This class of models includes those typically used to study growth curves and longitudinal data. Envelope methods have been proposed to improve the estimation efficiency in unconstrained multivariate linear models, but have not yet been developed for constrained models. We pursue that development in this article. We first compare the standard envelope estimator with the standard estimator arising from a constrained multivariate model in terms of bias and efficiency. To further improve efficiency, we propose a novel envelope estimator based on a constrained multivariate model. We show the advantage of our proposals by simulations and by studying the probiotic capacity to reduced Salmonella infection.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1916013
- PAR ID:
- 10479342
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wileys
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
- ISSN:
- 0303-6898
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Summary Envelopes have been proposed in recent years as a nascent methodology for sufficient dimension reduction and efficient parameter estimation in multivariate linear models. We extend the classical definition of envelopes in Cook et al. (2010) to incorporate a nonlinear conditional mean function and a heteroscedastic error. Given any two random vectors $${X}\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$$ and $${Y}\in\mathbb{R}^{r}$$, we propose two new model-free envelopes, called the martingale difference divergence envelope and the central mean envelope, and study their relationships to the standard envelope in the context of response reduction in multivariate linear models. The martingale difference divergence envelope effectively captures the nonlinearity in the conditional mean without imposing any parametric structure or requiring any tuning in estimation. Heteroscedasticity, or nonconstant conditional covariance of $${Y}\mid{X}$$, is further detected by the central mean envelope based on a slicing scheme for the data. We reveal the nested structure of different envelopes: (i) the central mean envelope contains the martingale difference divergence envelope, with equality when $${Y}\mid{X}$$ has a constant conditional covariance; and (ii) the martingale difference divergence envelope contains the standard envelope, with equality when $${Y}\mid{X}$$ has a linear conditional mean. We develop an estimation procedure that first obtains the martingale difference divergence envelope and then estimates the additional envelope components in the central mean envelope. We establish consistency in envelope estimation of the martingale difference divergence envelope and central mean envelope without stringent model assumptions. Simulations and real-data analysis demonstrate the advantages of the martingale difference divergence envelope and the central mean envelope over the standard envelope in dimension reduction.more » « less
-
Abstract We propose an efficient estimator for the coefficients in censored quantile regression using the envelope model. The envelope model uses dimension reduction techniques to identify material and immaterial components in the data, and forms the estimator based only on the material component, thus reducing the variability of estimation. We will demonstrate the guaranteed asymptotic efficiency gain of our proposed envelope estimator over the traditional estimator for censored quantile regression. Our analysis begins with the local weighing approach that traditionally relies on semiparametric ‐estimation involving the conditional Kaplan–Meier estimator. We will instead invoke the independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) representation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator, which eliminates this infinite‐dimensional nuisance and transforms our objective function in ‐estimation into a ‐process indexed by only an Euclidean parameter. The modified ‐estimation problem becomes entirely parametric and hence more amenable to analysis. We will also reconsider the i.i.d. representation of the conditional Kaplan–Meier estimator.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT Common envelope (CE) evolution, which is crucial in creating short-period binaries and associated astrophysical events, can be constrained by reverse modelling of such binaries’ formation histories. Through analysis of a sample of well-constrained white dwarf (WD) binaries with low-mass primaries (seven eclipsing double WDs, two non-eclipsing double WDs, one WD-brown dwarf), we estimate the CE energy efficiency αCE needed to unbind the hydrogen envelope. We use grids of He- and CO-core WD models to determine the masses and cooling ages that match each primary WD’s radius and temperature. Assuming gravitational wave-driven orbital decay, we then calculate the associated ranges in post-CE orbital period. By mapping WD models to a grid of red giant progenitor stars, we determine the total envelope binding energies and possible orbital periods at the point CE evolution is initiated, thereby constraining αCE. Assuming He-core WDs with progenitors of 0.9–2.0 M⊙, we find αCE ∼ 0.2–0.4 is consistent with each system we model. Significantly higher values of αCE are required for higher mass progenitors and for CO-core WDs, so these scenarios are deemed unlikely. Our values are mostly consistent with previous studies of post-CE WD binaries, and they suggest a nearly constant and low envelope ejection efficiency for CE events that produce He-core WDs.more » « less
-
We develop an analytical framework to appropriately model and adequately analyze A/B tests in presence of nonparametric nonstationarities in the targeted business metrics. A/B tests, also known as online randomized controlled experiments, have been used at scale by data-driven enterprises to guide decisions and test innovative ideas to improve core business metrics. Meanwhile, nonstationarities, such as the time-of-day effect and the day-of-week effect, can often arise nonparametrically in key business metrics involving purchases, revenue, conversions, customer experiences, and so on. First, we develop a generic nonparametric stochastic model to capture nonstationarities in A/B test experiments, where each sample represents a visit or action associated with a time label. We build a practically relevant limiting regime to facilitate analyzing large-sample estimator performances under nonparametric nonstationarities. Second, we show that ignoring or inadequately addressing nonstationarities can cause standard A/B test estimators to have suboptimal variance and nonvanishing bias, therefore leading to loss of statistical efficiency and accuracy. We provide a new estimator that views time as a continuous strata and performs poststratification with a data-dependent number of stratification levels. Without making parametric assumptions, we prove a central limit theorem for the proposed estimator and show that the estimator attains the best achievable asymptotic variance and is asymptotically unbiased. Third, we propose a time-grouped randomization that is designed to balance treatment and control assignments at granular time scales. We show that when the time-grouped randomization is integrated to standard experimental designs to generate experiment data, simple A/B test estimators can achieve asymptotically optimal variance. A brief account of numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the analysis. This paper was accepted by Baris Ata, stochastic models and simulation. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01205 .more » « less
An official website of the United States government

