One of the primary means of addressing the depletion of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture is to reduce pumping. In this work, we address the key question of how much data is needed to reliably predict the impact of pumping reductions. Previous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of a simple water balance‐based approach for predicting the near‐term impact of changes in total pumping on changes in average water levels for areas ranging in size from 256 to 21,600 km2in the High Plains aquifer (HPA) in the state of Kansas in the central U.S. This method shows considerable promise as a management tool in the Kansas HPA and potentially other highly stressed aquifers. However, one characteristic that sets the Kansas HPA apart from many other aquifers is an abundance of data on both water levels, from a decades‐old annual water level measurement program, and annual pumping volumes, due to reporting requirements and regulatory oversight. Most regions will have considerably less information. This study investigates the impact of more limited data availability through random subsampling of the water level and water use data sets from Groundwater Management District 4 (GMD4) in northwest Kansas and GMD5 in south‐central Kansas. The results indicate that accurate estimates of net inflow and specific yield, the key parameters needed to predict near‐term aquifer responses to proposed pumping reductions, can be obtained with much sparser water level and water use data than are available in the Kansas HPA, as long as the data are not systematically biased.
Aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture are a resource of global importance. Many of these systems, however, are experiencing significant pumping‐induced stress that threatens their continued viability as a water source for irrigation. Reductions in pumping are often the only option to extend the lifespans of these aquifers and the agricultural production they support. The impact of reductions depends on a quantity known as “net inflow” or “capture.” We use data from a network of wells in the western Kansas portions of the High Plains aquifer in the central United States to demonstrate the importance of net inflow, how it can be estimated in the field, how it might vary in response to pumping reductions, and why use of “net inflow” may be preferred over “capture” in certain contexts. Net inflow has remained approximately constant over much of western Kansas for at least the last 15 to 25 years, thereby allowing it to serve as a target for sustainability efforts. The percent pumping reduction required to reach net inflow (i.e., stabilize water levels for the near term [years to a few decades]) can vary greatly over this region, which has important implications for groundwater management. However, the reduction does appear practically achievable (less than 30%) in many areas. The field‐determined net inflow can play an important role in calibration of regional groundwater models; failure to reproduce its magnitude and temporal variations should prompt further calibration. Although net inflow is a universally applicable concept, the reliability of field estimates is greatest in seasonally pumped aquifers.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2108196
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10480606
- Publisher / Repository:
- NGWA
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Groundwater
- Volume:
- 61
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0017-467X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 56 to 65
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract Many of the world's major aquifers are under severe stress as a result of intensive pumping to support irrigated agriculture and provide drinking water supplies for millions. The question of what the future holds for these aquifers is one of global importance. Without better information about subsurface conditions, it will be difficult to reliably assess an aquifer's response to management actions and climatic stresses. One important but underutilized source of information is the data from monitoring well networks that provide near‐continuous records of water levels through time. Most organizations running these networks are, by necessity, primarily focused on network maintenance. The result is that relatively little attention is given to interpretation of the acquired hydrographs. However, embedded in those hydrographs is valuable information about subsurface conditions and aquifer responses to natural and anthropogenic stresses. We demonstrate the range of insights that can be gleaned from such hydrographs using data from the High Plains aquifer index well network of the Kansas Geological Survey. We show how information about an aquifer's hydraulic state and lateral extent, the nature of recharge, the hydraulic connection to the aquifer and nearby pumping wells, and the expected response to conservation‐based pumping reductions can be extracted from these hydrographs. The value of this information is dependent on accurate water‐level measurements; errors in those measurements can make it difficult to fully exploit the insights that water‐well hydrographs can provide. We therefore conclude by presenting measures that can help reduce the potential for such errors.
-
more » « less
Abstract Many irrigated agricultural areas seek to prolong the lifetime of their groundwater resources by reducing pumping. However, it is unclear how lagged responses, such as reduced groundwater recharge caused by more efficient irrigation, may impact the long‐term effectiveness of conservation initiatives. Here, we use a variably saturated, simplified surrogate groundwater model to: (a) analyze aquifer responses to pumping reductions, (b) quantify time lags between reductions and groundwater level responses, and (c) identify the physical controls on lagged responses. We explore a range of plausible model parameters for an area of the High Plains aquifer (USA) where stakeholder‐driven conservation has slowed groundwater depletion. We identify two types of lagged responses that reduce the long‐term effectiveness of groundwater conservation, recharge‐dominated and lateral‐flow‐dominated, with vertical hydraulic conductivity (
K Z) the major controlling variable. When highK Zallows percolation to reach the aquifer, more efficient irrigation reduces groundwater recharge. By contrast, when lowK Zimpedes vertical flow, short term changes in recharge are negligible, but pumping reductions alter the lateral flow between the groundwater conservation area and the surrounding regions (lateral‐flow‐dominated response). For the modeled area, we found that a pumping reduction of 30% resulted in median usable lifetime extensions of 20 or 25 years, depending on the dominant lagged response mechanism (recharge‐ vs. lateral‐flow‐dominated). These estimates are far shorter than estimates that do not account for lagged responses. Results indicate that conservation‐based pumping reductions can extend aquifer lifetimes, but lagged responses can create a sizable difference between the initially perceived and actual long‐term effectiveness. -
more » « less
Abstract The common‐pool nature of groundwater resources creates incentives to over pump that contribute to their rapid global depletion. In transboundary aquifers, users are separated by a territorial border and might face substantially different economic and hydrogeologic conditions that can alternatively dampen or amplify incentives to over pump. We develop a theoretical model that couples principles of game theory and groundwater flow to capture the combined effect of well locations and user asymmetries on pumping incentives. We find that heterogeneities across users (here referred to as asymmetries) in terms of either energy cost, groundwater profitability or aquifer response tend to dampen incentives to over pump. However, combinations of two or more types of asymmetry can substantially amplify common‐pool overdraft, particularly when the same user simultaneously faces comparatively higher costs (or aquifer response) and profitability. We use this theoretical insight to interpret the emergence of the Disi agreement between Saudi Arabia and Jordan in association with the Disi‐Amman water pipeline. By using bounded non‐dimensional parameters to encode user asymmetries and groundwater connectivity, the theory provides a tractable generalized framework to understand the premature depletion of shared aquifers, whether transboundary or not.
-
more » « less
Abstract Over the past 35 years the Buckman wellfield near Santa Fe, New Mexico, experienced production well drawdowns in excess of 180 m, resulting in ground subsidence and surface cracks. Increased reliance on surface water diversions since 2011 has reduced pumping and yielded water level recovery. To characterize the impact of wellfield management decisions on the aquifer system, we reconstruct the surface deformation history through the European Remote Sensing Satellite, Advanced Land Observing Satellite, and Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series analysis during episodes of drawdown (1993–2000), recovery (2007–2010), and modern management (2015–2018) in discontinuous observations over a 25‐year period. The observed deformation generally reflects changes in hydraulic head. However, at times during the wellfield recovery, the deformation signal is complex, with patterns of uplift and subsidence suggesting a compartmentalized aquifer system. Recent records of locally high geothermal gradients and an overall warming of the system (~0.5°C during the water level recovery) obtained from repeat temperature measurements between 2013 and 2018 constrain a conceptual model of convective heat transfer that requires a vertical permeable zone near an observed fault. To reproduce observed temperature patterns at monitoring wells, high basal heat flow and convective cooling associated with downward flow of water from cool shallow aquifers during the drawdown period is necessary. The fault, however, appears to die out southward or may be locally permeable, as conceptual cross‐sectional hydrologic modeling reproduces the surface deformation without such a structure. Our work demonstrates the importance of incorporating well‐constrained stratigraphy and structure when modeling near‐surface deformation induced by, for instance, groundwater production.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.13233
