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Groundwater scarcity poses threats to communities across the globe, and effectively managing those challenges requires designing policy that achieves institutional fit. Collective action is well-suited to match rules with local context, and multiple pathways exist for communities to achieve reductions in groundwater use. To better understand how local conditions influence rule design, we examine two groundwater-reliant communities in the Western US that engaged in collective-action to arrive at distinct groundwater management rules. We consider: what drove stakeholders in Northwestern Kansas (NWKS) and San Luis Valley, Colorado (SLV) to adopt local groundwater policies, and why were different management pathways chosen? Further, why is more heterogeneity observed between local management organizations in SLV as compared to NWKS? To investigate these questions, we employ grounded theory to interpret the rules in reference to local hydro-agro-economic statistics and interviews with stakeholders (n= 19) in each region selected by expert sampling. We find that the additional goals of groundwater rules in SLV, partially driven by key contrasts in the resource system compared to NWKS, and higher resource productivity in SLV, creates both the need for and efficacy of a price-centered policy. Furthermore, variation in the resource systems and associated farm characteristics between subdistricts drives higher heterogeneity in rule design between local management districts in SLV compared to NWKS. More generally, we find the local flexibility afforded through the collective-action process as critical, even if it were to arrive at alternative, non-economic based incentives.

 

Aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture are a resource of global importance. Many of these systems, however, are experiencing significant pumping‐induced stress that threatens their continued viability as a water source for irrigation. Reductions in pumping are often the only option to extend the lifespans of these aquifers and the agricultural production they support. The impact of reductions depends on a quantity known as “net inflow” or “capture.” We use data from a network of wells in the western Kansas portions of the High Plains aquifer in the central United States to demonstrate the importance of net inflow, how it can be estimated in the field, how it might vary in response to pumping reductions, and why use of “net inflow” may be preferred over “capture” in certain contexts. Net inflow has remained approximately constant over much of western Kansas for at least the last 15 to 25 years, thereby allowing it to serve as a target for sustainability efforts. The percent pumping reduction required to reach net inflow (i.e., stabilize water levels for the near term [years to a few decades]) can vary greatly over this region, which has important implications for groundwater management. However, the reduction does appear practically achievable (less than 30%) in many areas. The field‐determined net inflow can play an important role in calibration of regional groundwater models; failure to reproduce its magnitude and temporal variations should prompt further calibration. Although net inflow is a universally applicable concept, the reliability of field estimates is greatest in seasonally pumped aquifers.

 

Many irrigated agricultural areas seek to prolong the lifetime of their groundwater resources by reducing pumping. However, it is unclear how lagged responses, such as reduced groundwater recharge caused by more efficient irrigation, may impact the long‐term effectiveness of conservation initiatives. Here, we use a variably saturated, simplified surrogate groundwater model to: (a) analyze aquifer responses to pumping reductions, (b) quantify time lags between reductions and groundwater level responses, and (c) identify the physical controls on lagged responses. We explore a range of plausible model parameters for an area of the High Plains aquifer (USA) where stakeholder‐driven conservation has slowed groundwater depletion. We identify two types of lagged responses that reduce the long‐term effectiveness of groundwater conservation, recharge‐dominated and lateral‐flow‐dominated, with vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_Z) the major controlling variable. When highK_Zallows percolation to reach the aquifer, more efficient irrigation reduces groundwater recharge. By contrast, when lowK_Zimpedes vertical flow, short term changes in recharge are negligible, but pumping reductions alter the lateral flow between the groundwater conservation area and the surrounding regions (lateral‐flow‐dominated response). For the modeled area, we found that a pumping reduction of 30% resulted in median usable lifetime extensions of 20 or 25 years, depending on the dominant lagged response mechanism (recharge‐ vs. lateral‐flow‐dominated). These estimates are far shorter than estimates that do not account for lagged responses. Results indicate that conservation‐based pumping reductions can extend aquifer lifetimes, but lagged responses can create a sizable difference between the initially perceived and actual long‐term effectiveness.

 

Effective groundwater management is critical to future environmental, ecological, and social sustainability and requires accurate estimates of groundwater withdrawals. Unfortunately, these estimates are not readily available in most areas due to physical, regulatory, and social challenges. Here, we compare four different approaches for estimating groundwater withdrawals for agricultural irrigation. We apply these methods in a groundwater‐irrigated region in the state of Kansas, USA, where high‐quality groundwater withdrawal data are available for evaluation. The four methods represent a broad spectrum of approaches: (1) the hydrologically‐based Water Table Fluctuation method (WTFM); (2) the demand‐based SALUS crop model; (3) estimates based on satellite‐derived evapotranspiration (ET) data from OpenET; and (4) a landscape hydrology model which integrates hydrologic‐ and demand‐based approaches. The applicability of each approach varies based on data availability, spatial and temporal resolution, and accuracy of predictions. In general, our results indicate that all approaches reasonably estimate groundwater withdrawals in our region, however, the type and amount of data required for accurate estimates and the computational requirements vary among approaches. For example, WTFM requires accurate groundwater levels, specific yield, and recharge data, whereas the SALUS crop model requires adequate information about crop type, land use, and weather. This variability highlights the difficulty in identifying what data, and how much, are necessary for a reasonable groundwater withdrawal estimate, and suggests that data availability should drive the choice of approach. Overall, our findings will help practitioners evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches and select the appropriate approach for their application. 

Farmers in humid states of US, traditionally reliant on rainfall, have more than tripled irrigation since 1978. We examine this trend in Illinois where there has been a nearly threefold increase in center pivot irrigation system (CPIS) installations since 1988. Specifically, we analyze where and when CPIS installations occur and their benefits in terms of crop yield, irrigated acreage, crop selection, and changes to drought-related insurance payouts. To do so, we create a novel data set derived from a deep learning model capable of automatically identifying the location of CPIS during drought years. The results indicate CPIS installations are significantly more common over alluvial aquifers after droughts. Some evidence supports CPIS leads to corn appearing more often in the corn-soy crop rotation. Counties with a higher presence of CPIS do not have higher average crop yields. However, in drought years CPIS presence does have a significant positive effect on corn yield and a significant negative effect on indemnity payments for both soybeans and corn. The results provide insights into an emerging trend of irrigation in humid regions, raising potential policy considerations for crop insurance and signaling a potential need to address water rights as demand increases.