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Abstract We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of $$10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3$$ 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of $$1^{+12}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 12 ( $$10^{+52}_{-10}$$ 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of $$0^{+19}_{-0}$$ 0 - 0 + 19 ( $$1^{+91}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and $$17^{+22}_{-11}$$ 17 - 11 + 22 ( $$79^{+89}_{-44}$$ 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.
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Outlook for detecting the gravitational-wave displacement and spin memory effects with current and future gravitational-wave detectors
Gravitational-wave memory effects arise from nonoscillatory components of gravitational-wave signals, and they are predictions of general relativity in the nonlinear regime that have close connections to the asymptotic properties of isolated gravitating systems. There are many types of memory effects that have been studied in the literature. In this paper we focus on the “displacement” and “spin” memories, which are expected to be the largest of these effects from sources such as the binary black hole mergers which have already been detected by LIGO and Virgo. The displacement memory is a change in the relative separation of two initially comoving observers due to a burst of gravitational waves, whereas the spin memory is a portion of the change in relative separation of observers with initial relative velocity. As both of these effects are small, LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA can only detect memory effects from individual events that are much louder (and thus rarer) than those that have been detected so far. By combining data from multiple events, however, these effects could be detected in a population of binary mergers. In this paper, we present new forecasts for how long current and future detectors will need to operate in order to measure these effects from populations of binary black hole systems that are consistent with the populations inferred from the detections from LIGO and Virgo’s first three observing runs. We find that a second-generation detector network of LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA operating at the O4 (“design”) sensitivity for 1.5 years and then operating at the O5 (“plus”) sensitivity for an additional 1.5 years can detect the displacement memory. For Cosmic Explorer, we find that displacement memory could be detected for individual loud events, and that the spin memory could be detected in a population after 5 years of observation time.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2011784
- PAR ID:
- 10481688
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Physical Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Physical Review D
- Volume:
- 107
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2470-0010
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 064056
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.107.064056
