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1. Global drivers of local water stresses and global responses to local water policies in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd269  

   Haqiqi, Iman ; Bowling, Laura ; Jame, Sadia ; Baldos, Uris ; Liu, Jing ; Hertel, Thomas ( May 2023 , Environmental Research Letters)

   The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas.

    

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2. Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01228-x  

   Ollenburger, Mary ; Kyle, Page ; Zhang, Xin ( March 2022 , Food Security)

   Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

    

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3. Labor Rationing

   https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201385  

   Breza, Emily ; Kaur, Supreet ; Shamdasani, Yogita ( October 2021 , American Economic Review)

   This paper measures excess labor supply in equilibrium. We induce hiring shocks—which employ 24 percent of the labor force in external month-long jobs—in Indian local labor markets. In peak months, wages increase instantaneously and local aggregate employment declines. In lean months, consistent with severe labor rationing, wages and aggregate employment are unchanged, with positive employment spillovers on remaining workers, indicating that over a quarter of labor supply is rationed. At least 24 percent of lean self-employment among casual workers occurs because they cannot find jobs. Consequently, traditional survey approaches mismeasure labor market slack. Rationing has broad implications for labor market analysis. (JEL E24, J22, J23, J31, J64, O15, R23) 

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4. Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f  

   de Lima, Cicero Z. ; Buzan, Jonathan R. ; Moore, Frances C. ; Baldos, Uris Lantz C. ; Huber, Matthew ; Hertel, Thomas W. ( March 2021 , Environmental Research Letters)

   The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3^∘C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3^∘C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

    

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5. Socio-Economic and Governance Conditions Corresponding to Change in Animal Agriculture: South Dakota Case Study

   https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910682  

   Welles, Jacqueline S. ; Soriano, Noelle Cielito ; Dorbu, Freda Elikem ; Pereira, G. M. ; Rubeck, Laura M. ; Timmermans, Erica L. ; Ndayambaje, Benjamin ; Deviney, Alison V. ; Classen, John J. ; Koziel, Jacek A. ; et al ( October 2021 , Sustainability)

   Understanding sustainable livestock production requires consideration of both qualitative and quantitative factors in a temporal and/or spatial frame. This study adapted Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to relate conditions of social, economic, and governance factors to changes in livestock inventory across several counties and over time. This paper presents an approach that (1) identified factors with the potential to relate to a change in livestock inventory and (2) analyzed commonalities within these factors related to changes spatially and temporally. This paper illustrates the approach and results when applied to five counties in eastern South Dakota. The specific response variables were periods of increasing, no change, or decreasing beef cattle, dairy cattle, and swine inventories in the specific counties for five-year census periods between 1992 and 2017. In the spatial analysis of counties, stable beef inventories and decreasing dairy inventories related to counties with increasing gross domestic products. The presence of specific social communities related to increases in county swine inventories. In the temporal analysis of census periods, local governance and economic factors, particularly market price influences, were more prevalent. Swine inventory showed a stronger link to cash crop markets than to livestock markets, whereas cattle market price increases associated with stable inventories for all animal types. Local governance tools had mixed effects for the different animal types across space and time. The factors and analysis results are context-specific. However, the process considers the various socio-economic processes in livestock production and community development applicable to agricultural sustainability questions in the Midwest and beyond. 

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