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1. Labor Rationing

   https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201385  

   Breza, Emily; Kaur, Supreet; Shamdasani, Yogita (October 2021, American Economic Review)

   This paper measures excess labor supply in equilibrium. We induce hiring shocks—which employ 24 percent of the labor force in external month-long jobs—in Indian local labor markets. In peak months, wages increase instantaneously and local aggregate employment declines. In lean months, consistent with severe labor rationing, wages and aggregate employment are unchanged, with positive employment spillovers on remaining workers, indicating that over a quarter of labor supply is rationed. At least 24 percent of lean self-employment among casual workers occurs because they cannot find jobs. Consequently, traditional survey approaches mismeasure labor market slack. Rationing has broad implications for labor market analysis. (JEL E24, J22, J23, J31, J64, O15, R23) 

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2. Global drivers of local water stresses and global responses to local water policies in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd269  

   Haqiqi, Iman; Bowling, Laura; Jame, Sadia; Baldos, Uris; Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas (May 2023, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas. 

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3. Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01228-x  

   Ollenburger, Mary; Kyle, Page; Zhang, Xin (March 2022, Food Security)

   Abstract Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling. 

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4. What would it look like? Visualizing a future US Corn Belt landscape with more table food production

   https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170524000024  

   Stone, Tiffanie F; Thompson, Janette R; Zimmerman, Emily; Brighenti, Tassia M; Liebman, Matt (January 2024, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems)

   Abstract Most farmland in the US Corn Belt is used to grow row crops at large scales (e.g., corn, soybean) that are highly processed before entering the human food stream rather than specialty crops grown in smaller areas and meant for direct human consumption (table food). Bolstering local table food production close to urban populations in this region through peri-urban agriculture (PUA) could enhance sustainability and resilience. Understanding factors influencing PUA producers' preferences and willingness to produce table food would enable supportive planning and policy efforts. This study combined land use visualization and survey data to examine the potential for increased local table food production for the US Corn Belt. We developed a spatial visualization of current agricultural land use and a future scenario with increased table food production designed to meet 50% of dietary requirements for a metropolitan population in 2050. A survey was administered to row crop (1360) and specialty crop (55) producers near Des Moines, Iowa, US to understand current and intended agricultural land use and factors influencing production. Responses from 316 row crop and 25 specialty crop producers were eligible for this analysis. A future scenario with increased table food production would require less than 3% of available agricultural land and some additional producers (approximately 130, primarily for grain production). Survey responses indicated PUA producers planned small increases in table food production in the next three to five years. Producer plans, including land rental for table food production, could provide approximately 25% of residents' fruit, vegetables, and grains, an increase from the baseline of 2%. Row crop producers ranked food safety regulations, and specialty producers ranked labor concerns as strong influences on their decision-making. Both groups indicated that crop insurance and processing facilities were also important. Increasing table food production by clustering mid-scale operations to increase economies of scale and strengthening supply chains and production infrastructure could provide new profitable opportunities for farmers and more resilient food systems for growing urban regions in the US Corn Belt. Continuing to address producer factors and landscape-scale environmental impacts will be critical in considering food system sustainability challenges holistically. 

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5. Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w  

   Wu, Grace C.; Baker, Justin S.; Wade, Christopher M.; McCord, Gordon C.; Fargione, Joseph E.; Havlik, Petr (November 2022, Sustainability Science)

   Abstract Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly avoid emissions by reducing cropland area. However, there is disagreement on the sustainability of proposed healthy U.S. diets and a lack of clarity on how long-term sustainability benefits may change in response to shifts in the livestock sector. Here, we explore the GHG emissions impacts of seven scenarios that vary U.S. crop yields and healthier diets in the U.S. and overseas. We also examine how impacts vary across assumptions of future ruminant livestock productivity and ruminant stocking density in the U.S. We employ two complementary land use models—the US FABLE Calculator, an agricultural and forestry sector accounting model with high agricultural commodity representation, and GLOBIOM, a spatially explicit partial equilibrium optimization model for global land use systems. Results suggest that healthier U.S. diets that follow the Dietary Guidelines for Americans reduce agricultural and land use greenhouse gas emissions by 25–57% (approx 120–310 MtCO_2e/y) and pastureland area by 28–38%. The potential emissions and land sparing benefits of U.S. agricultural productivity growth are modest within the U.S. due to the increasing comparative advantage of U.S. crops. Our findings suggest that healthy U.S. diets can significantly contribute toward meeting U.S. long-term climate goals for the land use sectors. 

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