Abstract Global Forecast System (GFS), North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, and precipitation accumulation forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC are verified against New York State Mesonet (NYSM) observations from 1 January 2018 through 31 December 2021. NYSM observations at 126 site locations are used to calculate standard error statistics (e.g., forecast error, root-mean-square error) for temperature and wind speed and contingency table statistics for precipitation across forecast hours, meteorological seasons, and regions. The majority of the focus is placed on the first 18 forecast hours to allow for comparison among all three models. A daily NYSM station-mean temperature error analysis identified a slight cold bias at temperatures below 25°C in the GFS, a cool-to-warm bias as forecast temperatures warm in the HRRR, and a warm bias at temperatures above 30°C in each model. Differences arise when considering temperature biases with respect to lead times and seasons. Wind speeds are overforecast at all ranges in each season, and forecast wind speeds ≥ 18 m s−1are rarely observed. Performance diagrams indicate overall good forecast performance at precipitation thresholds of 0.1–1.5 mm, but with a high frequency bias in the GFS and NAM. This paper provides an overview of deterministic forecast performance across New York State, with the aim of sharing common biases associated with temperature, wind speed, and precipitation with operational forecasters and is the first step in developing a real-time model forecast uncertainty prediction tool.
more »
« less
Comparison of CYGNSS and Jason-3 Wind Speed Measurements via Gaussian Processes
Wind is a critical component of the Earth system and has unmistakable impacts on everyday life.The CYGNSS satellite mission improves observational coverage of ocean windsviaa fleet of eightmicro-satellites that use reflected GNSS signals to infer surface wind speed. We present analysescharacterizing variability in wind speed measurements among the eight CYGNSS satellites andbetween antennas, using a Gaussian process model that leverages comparisons between CYGNSSand Jason-3 during a one-year period from September 2019 to September 2020. The CYGNSS sen-sors exhibit a range of biases, mostly between1.0 m/s andþ0.2 m/s with respect to Jason-3,indicating that some CYGNSS sensors are biased with respect to one another and with respect toJason-3. The biases between the starboard and port antennas within a CYGNSS satellite aresmaller. Our results are consistent with, yet sharper than, a more traditional paired comparisonanalysis. We also explore the possibility that the bias depends on wind speed, finding some evi-dence that CYGNSS satellites have positive biases with respect to Jason-3 at low wind speeds.However, we argue that there are subtle issues associated with estimating wind speed-dependentbiases, so additional careful statistical modeling and analysis is warranted.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10485000
- Publisher / Repository:
- Taylor and Francis
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Data Science in Science
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2694-1899
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract. Previous studies utilizing the Global Positioning System(GPS) receivers aboard Jason satellites have performed measurements ofplasmasphere electron content (PEC) by determining the total electroncontent (TEC) above these satellites, which are at altitudes of about 1340 km. This study uses similar methods to determine PEC for the Jason-2receiver for 24 July 2011. These PEC values are compared to previousdeterminations of PEC from a chain of ground-based GPS receivers in Africausing the SCORPION method, with a nominal ionosphere–plasmasphere boundaryat 1000 km. The Jason-2 PECs with elevations greater than 60∘were converted to equivalent vertical PEC and compared to SCORPION verticalPEC determinations. In addition, slant (off-vertical) PECs from Jason-2were compared to a small set of nearly co-aligned ground-based slant PECs.The latter comparison avoids any conversion of Jason-2 slant PEC toequivalent vertical PEC, and it can be considered a more representativecomparison. The mean difference between the vertical PEC (ground-basedminus Jason-2 measurements) values is 0.82 ± 0.28 TEC units (1 TEC unit=1016 electrons m−2). Similarly, the mean differencebetween slant PEC values is 0.168 ± 0.924 TEC units. The Jason-2 slantPEC comparison method may provide a reliable determination for theplasmasphere baseline value for the ground-based receivers, especially ifthe ground stations are confined to only midlatitude or low-latituderegions, which can be affected by a non-negligible PEC baseline.more » « less
-
Abstract The Gravity Field and Steady‐State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) and CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellites measure in‐situ thermospheric density and cross‐track wind. When propagating obliquely to the satellite track in a horizontal plane (i.e., not purely along‐track or cross‐track), gravity waves (GWs) can be observed both in the density and cross‐track wind perturbations. We employ the Wavelet Analysis, red noise model, dissipative dispersion and polarization relations for thermospheric GWs, and specific criteria to determine whether a quiet‐time (Kp < 3) thermospheric traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) event is a GW or not. The first global morphology of thermospheric GWs instead of TADs is reported. The fast intrinsic horizontal phase speed (cIH> 600 m/s) of most GWs suggests that they are not generated in the lower/middle atmosphere (wherecIH < 300 m/s). A second population of GWs with slower speeds (cIH = 50–250 m/s) in GOCE are likely from the lower/middle atmosphere, but they occur much less frequently in CHAMP. GW hotspots occur during the high‐latitude and the winter midlatitude regions. GW amplitudes exhibit semi‐annual and annual variations. These findings suggest that most GOCE and CHAMP GWs are higher‐order GWs from primary GW sources in the lower/middle atmosphere. Finally, the average propagation direction of the CHAMP GWs exhibits a clear diurnal cycle, with clockwise (counterclockwise) occurring in the northern (southern) hemisphere and equatorward propagation occurring at ∼13 LST. This suggests that the predominant GW propagation direction is opposite to the background wind direction.more » « less
-
Abstract This study documents the capabilities of the StreamSonde, a lightweight (24 g) instrument manufactured by Skyfora that measures atmospheric temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind velocity. Unique features of the StreamSonde are its wind speed accuracy enabled by a dual-band Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver, the ability to vary the terminal fall velocity, a theoretical maximum communication distance between the instrument and the deployment aircraft of 250 km, and the ability to simultaneously operate up to eight instruments (50 in the future). Skyfora’s GNSS receiver receives signals on two bands from U.S. global positioning system (GPS) (L1/L5), European Galileo (E1/E5a), and Chinese BeiDou (B1I/B2a) satellites to calculate the wind speed. The combination of dual GNSS and lower terminal fall velocity results in more accurate wind retrievals than from single-band GPS potentially allowing us calculate turbulence quantities, especially near the surface. StreamSondes were launched as dropsondes from the NOAA P-3 aircraft in both clear-air low-wind testing environments and in Hurricane Nigel (2023). The pressure, temperature, humidity (in clear air), and derived wind velocity collected by the StreamSonde compare favorably to the widely used RD41 dropsonde that was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is manufactured by Vaisala. At coreleased drops in Hurricane Nigel, mean absolute differences between RD41 dropsondes and StreamSondes are generally below 1°C for air temperature, 1.5 m s−1for wind speed, and 6° for wind direction. The benefits of using the StreamSonde instrument along with planned improvements to the platform are discussed. Significance StatementThis study presents proof of concept for operational deployment of a new, lightweight atmospheric profiler called the StreamSonde in a tropical cyclone. It uses advanced positioning technology to accurately measure three-dimensional wind velocity, has an adjustable terminal velocity, and can be deployed in “swarms” of sensors that have up to eight (50 in the future) instruments simultaneously active. The versatility of this emerging technology makes it useable for many meteorological applications.more » « less
-
Abstract To better understand the formation of large, low-surface-brightness galaxies, we measure the correlation function between ultradiffuse galaxy (UDG) candidates and Milky Way analogs (MWAs). We find that: (1) the projected radial distribution of UDG satellites (projected surface density ∝r−0.84±0.06) is consistent with that of normal satellite galaxies; (2) the number of UDG satellites per MWA (SUDG) is ∼0.5 ± 0.1 over projected radii from 20 to 250 kpc and −17 <Mr< −13.5; (3)SUDGis consistent with a linear extrapolation of the relationship between the number of UDGs per halo versus halo mass obtained over galaxy group and cluster scales; (4) red UDG satellites dominate the population of UDG satellites (∼80%); (5) over the range of satellite magnitudes studied, UDG satellites comprise ∼10% of the satellite galaxy population of MWAs; and (6) a significant fraction of these (∼13%) have estimated total masses >1010.9M⊙or, equivalently, at least half the halo mass of the LMC, and populate a large fraction (∼18%) of the expected subhalos down to these masses. All of these results suggest a close association between the overall low-mass galaxy population and UDGs, which we interpret as favoring models where UDG formation principally occurs within the general context of low-mass galaxy formation over models invoking more exotic physical processes specifically invoked to form UDGs.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

