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1. The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0176.1  

   Wille, Jonathan D.; Alexander, Simon P.; Amory, Charles; Baiman, Rebecca; Barthélemy, Léonard; Bergstrom, Dana M.; Berne, Alexis; Binder, Hanin; Blanchet, Juliette; Bozkurt, Deniz; et al (February 2024, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. In Part I, we assessed the meteorological drivers that generated an intense atmospheric river (AR) that caused these record-shattering temperature anomalies. Here, we continue our large collaborative study by analyzing the widespread and diverse impacts driven by the AR landfall. These impacts included widespread rain and surface melt that was recorded along coastal areas, but this was outweighed by widespread high snowfall accumulations resulting in a largely positive surface mass balance contribution to the East Antarctic region. An analysis of the surface energy budget indicated that widespread downward longwave radiation anomalies caused by large cloud-liquid water contents along with some scattered solar radiation produced intense surface warming. Isotope measurements of the moisture were highly elevated, likely imprinting a strong signal for past climate reconstructions. The AR event attenuated cosmic ray measurements at Concordia, something previously never observed. Last, an extratropical cyclone west of the AR landfall likely triggered the final collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further reducing an already record low sea ice extent. Significance StatementUsing our diverse collective expertise, we explored the impacts from the March 2022 heat wave and atmospheric river across East Antarctica. One key takeaway is that the Antarctic cryosphere is highly sensitive to meteorological extremes originating from the midlatitudes and subtropics. Despite the large positive temperature anomalies driven from strong downward longwave radiation, this event led to huge amounts of snowfall across the Antarctic interior desert. The isotopes in this snow of warm airmass origin will likely be detectable in future ice cores and potentially distort past climate reconstructions. Even measurements of space activity were affected. Also, the swells generated from this storm helped to trigger the final collapse of an already critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further degrading sea ice coverage. 

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2. Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00529-6  

   Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; Durán-Alarcón, Claudio; González-Herrero, Sergi; Clem, Kyle R.; Zou, Xun; Rowe, Penny; Rodriguez Imazio, Paola; Campos, Diego; Leroy-Dos Santos, Christophe; Dutrievoz, Niels; et al (December 2023, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Roy M. Harrison (Ed.)

   Abstract The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) experienced a new extreme warm event and record-high surface melt in February 2022, rivaling the recent temperature records from 2015 and 2020, and contributing to the alarming series of extreme warm events over this region showing stronger warming compared to the rest of Antarctica. Here, the drivers and impacts of the event are analyzed in detail using a range of observational and modeling data. The northern/northwestern AP was directly impacted by an intense atmospheric river (AR) attaining category 3 on the AR scale, which brought anomalous heat and rainfall, while the AR-enhanced foehn effect further warmed its northeastern side. The event was triggered by multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns linking the AR formation to tropical convection anomalies and stationary Rossby waves, with an anomalous Amundsen Sea Low and a record-breaking high-pressure system east of the AP. This multivariate and spatial compound event culminated in widespread and intense surface melt across the AP. Circulation analog analysis shows that global warming played a role in the amplification and increased probability of the event. Increasing frequency of such events can undermine the stability of the AP ice shelves, with multiple local to global impacts, including acceleration of the AP ice mass loss and changes in sensitive ecosystems. 

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3. The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104910  

   Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cox, Tyler; Espinosa, Zachary I.; Donohoe, Aaron (September 2023, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract An unprecedented heatwave impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large‐scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large‐scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near‐melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica. 

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4. Antarctic geothermal heat flow and its implications for tectonics and ice sheets

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00348-y  

   Reading, Anya M; Stål, Tobias; Halpin, Jacqueline A; Lösing, Mareen; Ebbing, Jörg; Shen, Weisen; McCormack, Felicity S; Siddoway, Christine S; Hasterok, Derrick (December 2022, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment)

   Geothermal heat flow (GHF) is an elusive physical property, yet it can reveal past and present plate tectonic processes. In Antarctica, GHF has further consequences in predicting the response of ice sheets to climate change. In this Review, we discuss variations in Antarctic GHF models based on geophysical methods and draw insights into tectonics and GHF model usage for ice sheet modelling. The inferred GHF at continental scale for West Antarctica (up to 119 mW m−2, 95th percentile) points to numerous contributing influences, including non- steady state neotectonic processes. Combined influences cause especially high values in the vicinity of the Thwaites Glacier, a location critical for the accurate prediction of accelerated loss of Antarctic ice mass. The inferred variations across East Antarctica are more subtle (up to 66 mW m−2, 95th percentile), where slightly elevated values in some locations correspond to the influence of thinned lithosphere and tectonic units with concentrations of heat- producing elements. Fine- scale anomalies owing to heat- producing elements and horizontal components of heat flow are important for regional modelling. GHF maps comprising central values with these fine- scale anomalies captured within uncertainty bounds can thus enable improved ensemble- based ice sheet model predictions of Antarctic ice loss. 

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5. Expedition 382 Scientific Prospectus: Iceberg Alley and South Falkland Slope Ice and Ocean Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.382.2018  

   Weber, M.E.; Raymo, M.E.; Peck, V.L.; Williams, T. (May 2018, Scientific prospectus)

   null (Ed.)

   International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 382, Iceberg Alley and South Falkland Slope Ice and Ocean Dynamics, will investigate the long-term climate history of Antarctica, seeking to understand how polar ice sheets responded to changes in atmospheric CO2 in the past and how ice sheet evolution influenced global sea level. We will drill six sites in the Scotia Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, providing the first deep drilling in this region of the Southern Ocean. We expect to recover >600 m of late Neogene sediment that will be used to reconstruct the past history and variability in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass loss and associated changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Expedition 382 expects to deliver the first spatially and temporally integrated record of iceberg flux from “Iceberg Alley,” the main pathway by which icebergs are calved from the margin of the AIS and travel equatorward into warmer waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In particular, we will characterize the magnitude of iceberg flux during key times of AIS evolution: • The middle Miocene glacial intensification of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, • The mid-Pliocene warm interval, • The late Pliocene glacial expansion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, • The mid-Pleistocene transition, and • The “warm interglacials” and glacial terminations of the last 800 ky. We will use the geochemical provenance of iceberg-rafted detritus and other glacially eroded material to determine regional sources of AIS mass loss in this region, address interhemispheric phasing of ice sheet growth and decay, study the distribution and history of land-based versus marine-based ice sheets around the continent over time, and explore the links between AIS variability and global sea level. By comparing north–south variations across the Scotia Sea, Expedition 382 will also deliver critical information on how climate changes in the Southern Ocean affect ocean circulation through the Drake Passage, meridional overturning in the region, water-mass production, CO2 transfer by wind-induced upwelling, sea ice variability, bottom water outflow from the Weddell Sea, Antarctic weathering inputs, and changes in oceanic and atmospheric fronts in the vicinity of the ACC. Comparing changes in dust proxy records between the Scotia Sea and Antarctic ice cores will also provide a detailed reconstruction of changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies on millennial and orbital timescales for the last 800 ky. Extending the ocean dust record beyond the last 800 ky will help to evaluate climate-dust couplings since the Pliocene, the potential role of dust in iron fertilization and atmospheric CO2 drawdown during glacials, and whether dust input to Antarctica played a role in the mid-Pleistocene transition. The principal scientific objective of the South Falkland Slope sites to the north is to reconstruct and understand how ocean circulation and intermediate water formation responds to changes in climate with a special focus on the connectivity between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The South Falkland Slope Drift, a contourite drift on the Falkland margin deposited between 400 and 2000 m water depth, is ideally situated to monitor millennial- to orbital-scale variability in the export of Antarctic Intermediate Water beneath the Subantarctic Front over at least the last 2 My. We anticipate that these sites will yield a wide array of paleoceanographic records that can be used to interpret past changes in the density structure of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and track the migration of the Subantarctic Front. We expect the cored sediments to capture the following significant climate episodes: • The most recent warm interglacials of the late Pleistocene; • The mid-Pleistocene transition, when δ18O records shifted from dominantly 41 to 100 ky periodicity; and possibly • Mid-Pliocene warm intervals, often invoked as the best analog for possible future climate change. 

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