skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Light-level geolocation reveals moderate levels of migratory connectivity for declining and stable populations of Black-throated Blue Warblers ( Setophaga caerulescens )
Black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) populations have been declining at the southern edge of the breeding range in North Carolina over the past two decades. Determining the causes of population declines in migratory species requires knowledge of the threats faced throughout the entire annual cycle, necessitating accurate information about the migratory routes and non-breeding areas used by birds. We used light-level geolocators to identify the fall migratory routes and non-breeding distributions of adults breeding at the southern edge of the range in North Carolina (n = 5), where populations are declining, and at the core of the range in New Hampshire (n = 8), where populations are stable. The strength of migratory connectivity was moderate (mean = 0.42). New Hampshire birds used non-breeding areas broadly distributed across the Caribbean, whereas North Carolina birds used a restricted non-breeding area largely in the Dominican Republic. Suitable forest cover declined at a higher rate from 2000 to 2019 in the Dominican Republic than in other Caribbean countries (8.4% vs. 2–4% loss), exposing birds from the trailing edge to significantly higher suitable habitat loss on the non-breeding grounds compared with range-core birds. Birds from the two study populations also exhibited differing migratory routes, with North Carolina birds migrating south through Florida and many New Hampshire birds performing an overwater flight from the Carolinas to the Caribbean. Our results suggest the possibility that, at least for this species, forest loss on the island of Hispaniola could be exacerbating population declines at the southern edge of the breeding range in North Carolina.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2224545
PAR ID:
10490756
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
The Resilience Alliance, Avian Conservation and Ecology
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Avian Conservation and Ecology
Volume:
18
Issue:
2
ISSN:
1712-6568
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ABSTRACT The southern range limit of the invasive Asian shore crab,Hemigrapsus sanguineus,along the United States East coast is further north than expected based on its native distribution. We investigated potential factors that may limit the southward spread of this species along the Mid‐Atlantic and South Atlantic bights from Virginia to South Carolina, including metabolic constraints, food availability, and habitat limitation. We searched sites identified as potential habitat forH. sanguineusto verify the presence/absence of the crab, measured the metabolic rates of crabs at their current southern range edge for comparison with previous measurements made further north on the New Hampshire coast, used digital images captured at each site to determine whether the availability of potential food decreases south of the current range limit, and used Google Earth to measure distances between suitable habitat patches north and south of the current range limit to determine whether habitat availability limits the range expansion toward the south. We encountered the species ~64 km further south than the documented range limit at Oregon Inlet, North Carolina. We found no difference in metabolism between crabs at the southern range edge compared to crabs from New Hampshire, and no consistent difference in the abundance of available food between sites north and south of the current range limit. However, we found greater distances between suitable hard‐substrate sites south of the current range limit than between sites found within the current range. We suggest that the availability of suitable habitat is the primary driver limiting the further southward range expansion ofH. sanguineus. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract In high-latitude species with high dispersal ability, such as long-distance migratory birds, populations are often assumed to exhibit little genetic structure due to high gene flow or recent postglacial expansion. We sequenced over 120 low-coverage whole genomes from across the breeding range of a long-distance migratory bird, the Veery (Catharus fuscescens), revealing strong evidence for isolation by distance. Additionally, we found distinct genetic structure between boreal, western montane U.S., and southern Appalachian sampling regions. We suggest that population genetic structure in this highly migratory species is detectable with the high resolution afforded by whole-genomic data because, similar to many migratory birds, the Veery exhibits high breeding-site fidelity, which likely limits gene flow. Resolution of isolation by distance across the breeding range was sufficient to assign likely breeding origins of individuals sampled in this species’ poorly understood South American nonbreeding range, demonstrating the potential to assess migratory connectivity in this species using genomic data. As the Veery’s breeding range extends across both historically glaciated and unglaciated regions in North America, we also evaluated whether contemporary patterns of structure and genetic diversity are consistent with historical population isolation in glacial refugia. We found that patterns of genetic diversity did not support southern montane regions (southern Appalachians or western U.S. mountains) as glacial refugia. Overall, our findings suggest that isolation by distance yields subtle associations between genetic structure and geography across the breeding range of this highly vagile species even in the absence of obvious historical vicariance or contemporary barriers to dispersal. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract PurposeTrailing-edge populations at the low-latitude, receding edge of a shifting range face high extinction risk from climate change unless they are able to track optimal environmental conditions through dispersal. MethodsWe fit dispersal models to the locations of 3165 individually-marked black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina, USA from 2002 to 2023. Black-throated blue warbler breeding abundance in this population has remained relatively stable at colder and wetter areas at higher elevations but has declined at warmer and drier areas at lower elevations. ResultsMedian dispersal distance of young warblers was 917 m (range 23–3200 m), and dispersal tended to be directed away from warm and dry locations. In contrast, adults exhibited strong site fidelity between breeding seasons and rarely dispersed more than 100 m (range 10–1300 m). Consequently, adult dispersal kernels were much more compact and symmetric than natal dispersal kernels, suggesting adult dispersal is unlikely a driving force of declines in this population. ConclusionOur findings suggest that directional natal dispersal may mitigate fitness costs for trailing-edge populations by allowing individuals to track changing climate and avoid warming conditions at warm-edge range boundaries. 
    more » « less
  4. Primary forest (PF) is critical in supporting biodiversity and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, the continuous monitoring of PF loss through remote sensing time-series observations remains largely unexplored, particularly in undeveloped and developing countries. In this study, we use the COntinuous monitoring of Land Disturbance (COLD) algorithm and Landsat time-series data to quantify PF loss on the island of Hispaniola, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic, from 1996 to 2022. The major findings include: (1) Haiti experienced a more pronounced PF loss compared to the Dominican Republic despite its lower PF coverage. From 1996 to 2022, PF in Haiti decreased from 0.64% to 0.35%, while PF in Dominican Republic decreased from 7.17% to 4.89%. (2) PF loss is observed both inside and outside protected areas. In Haiti, more PF loss occurs within protected areas than outside those areas. In the Dominican Republic, PF loss rates inside and outside protected areas are comparable. (3) The mean topographic slope of PF shows an increasing trend through time in both Haiti and Dominican Republic, suggesting slope plays a key role in PF loss. Despite the disparities between Haiti and Dominican Republic in preserving PF, urgent conservation policies are needed for the whole island. The land cover maps framework can be extended beyond the island of Hispaniola to larger regions for evaluating the impacts of PF loss on biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions. 
    more » « less