We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air‐sea CO2flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2air‐sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic‐wide 5.5 Tg C yr−1(3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short‐lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO2flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well‐behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.
This content will become publicly available on March 12, 2025
Phytoplankton and sea ice algae are traditionally considered to be the main primary producers in the Arctic Ocean. In this Perspective, we explore the importance of benthic primary producers (BPPs) encompassing microalgae, macroalgae, and seagrasses, which represent a poorly quantified source of Arctic marine primary production. Despite scarce observations, models predict that BPPs are widespread, colonizing ~3 million km2of the extensive Arctic coastal and shelf seas. Using a synthesis of published data and a novel model, we estimate that BPPs currently contribute ~77 Tg C y−1of primary production to the Arctic, equivalent to ~20 to 35% of annual phytoplankton production. Macroalgae contribute ~43 Tg C y−1, seagrasses contribute ~23 Tg C y−1, and microalgae-dominated shelf habitats contribute ~11 to 16 Tg C y−1. Since 2003, the Arctic seafloor area exposed to sunlight has increased by ~47,000 km2y−1, expanding the realm of BPPs in a warming Arctic. Increased macrophyte abundance and productivity is expected along Arctic coastlines with continued ocean warming and sea ice loss. However, microalgal benthic primary production has increased in only a few shelf regions despite substantial sea ice loss over the past 20 y, as higher solar irradiance in the ice-free ocean is counterbalanced by reduced water transparency. This suggests complex impacts of climate change on Arctic light availability and marine primary production. Despite significant knowledge gaps on Arctic BPPs, their widespread presence and obvious contribution to coastal and shelf ecosystem production call for further investigation and for their inclusion in Arctic ecosystem models and carbon budgets.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1851424
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10498923
- Publisher / Repository:
- PNAS Perspective
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 121
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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null (Ed.)Continental slopes – steep regions between the shelf break and abyssal ocean – play key roles in the climatology and ecology of the Arctic Ocean. Here, through review and synthesis, we find that the narrow slope regions contribute to ecosystem functioning disproportionately to the size of the habitat area (∼6% of total Arctic Ocean area). Driven by inflows of sub-Arctic waters and steered by topography, boundary currents transport boreal properties and particle loads from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans along-slope, thus creating both along and cross-slope connectivity gradients in water mass properties and biomass. Drainage of dense, saline shelf water and material within these, and contributions of river and meltwater also shape the characteristics of the slope domain. These and other properties led us to distinguish upper and lower slope domains; the upper slope (shelf break to ∼800 m) is characterized by stronger currents, warmer sub-surface temperatures, and higher biomass across several trophic levels (especially near inflow areas). In contrast, the lower slope has slower-moving currents, is cooler, and exhibits lower vertical carbon flux and biomass. Distinct zonation of zooplankton, benthic and fish communities result from these differences. Slopes display varying levels of system connectivity: (1) along-slope through property and material transport in boundary currents, (2) cross-slope through upwelling of warm and nutrient rich water and down-welling of dense water and organic rich matter, and (3) vertically through shear and mixing. Slope dynamics also generate separating functions through (1) along-slope and across-slope fronts concentrating biological activity, and (2) vertical gradients in the water column and at the seafloor that maintain distinct physical structure and community turnover. At the upper slope, climatic change is manifested in sea-ice retreat, increased heat and mass transport by sub-Arctic inflows, surface warming, and altered vertical stratification, while the lower slope has yet to display evidence of change. Model projections suggest that ongoing physical changes will enhance primary production at the upper slope, with suspected enhancing effects for consumers. We recommend Pan-Arctic monitoring efforts of slopes given that many signals of climate change appear there first and are then transmitted along the slope domain.more » « less
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Abstract Microalgae are the main source of the omega‐3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), essential for the healthy development of most marine and terrestrial fauna including humans. Inverse correlations of algal EPA and DHA proportions (% of total fatty acids) with temperature have led to suggestions of a warming‐induced decline in the global production of these biomolecules and an enhanced importance of high latitude organisms for their provision. The cold Arctic Ocean is a potential hotspot of EPA and DHA production, but consequences of global warming are unknown. Here, we combine a full‐seasonal EPA and DHA dataset from the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), with results from 13 previous field studies and 32 cultured algal strains to examine five potential climate change effects; ice algae loss, community shifts, increase in light, nutrients, and temperature. The algal EPA and DHA proportions were lower in the ice‐covered CAO than in warmer peripheral shelf seas, which indicates that the paradigm of an inverse correlation of EPA and DHA proportions with temperature may not hold in the Arctic. We found no systematic differences in the summed EPA and DHA proportions of sea ice versus pelagic algae, and in diatoms versus non‐diatoms. Overall, the algal EPA and DHA proportions varied up to four‐fold seasonally and 10‐fold regionally, pointing to strong light and nutrient limitations in the CAO. Where these limitations ease in a warming Arctic, EPA and DHA proportions are likely to increase alongside increasing primary production, with nutritional benefits for a non‐ice‐associated food web.
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Abstract The Arctic Ocean has turned from a perennial ice‐covered ocean into a seasonally ice‐free ocean in recent decades. Such a shift in the air‐ice‐sea interface has resulted in substantial changes in the Arctic carbon cycle and related biogeochemical processes. To quantitatively evaluate how the oceanic CO2sink responds to rapid sea ice loss and to provide a mechanistic explanation, here we examined the air‐sea CO2flux and the regional CO2sink in the western Arctic Ocean from 1994 to 2019 by two complementary approaches: observation‐based estimation and a data‐driven box model evaluation. The
p CO2observations and model results showed that summer CO2uptake significantly increased by about 1.4 ± 0.6 Tg C decade−1in the Chukchi Sea, primarily due to a longer ice‐free period, a larger open area, and an increased primary production. However, no statistically significant increase in CO2sink was found in the Canada Basin and the Beaufort Sea based on both observations and modeled results. The reduced sea ice coverage in summer in the Canada Basin and the enhanced wind speed in the Beaufort Sea potentially promoted CO2uptake, which was, however, counteracted by a rapidly decreased air‐seap CO2gradient therein. Therefore, the current and future Arctic Ocean CO2uptake trends cannot be sufficiently reflected by the air‐seap CO2gradient alone because of the sea ice variations and other environmental factors.
