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1. Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Weakening Rate in Response to an Imposed Moderate Environmental Vertical Wind Shear on the Warm‐Core Strength and Height of the Initial Vortex

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107779  

   Gao, Qi; Wang, Yuqing (April 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract This study investigated the dependence of the early tropical cyclone (TC) weakening rate in response to an imposed moderate environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) on the warm‐core strength and height of the TC vortex using idealized numerical simulations. Results show that the weakening of the warm core by upper‐level ventilation is the primary factor leading to the early TC weakening in response to an imposed environmental VWS. The upper‐level ventilation is dominated by eddy radial advection of the warm‐core air. The TC weakening rate is roughly proportional to the warm‐core strength and height of the initial TC vortex. The boundary‐layer ventilation shows no relationship with the early weakening rate of the TC in response to an imposed moderate VWS. The findings suggest that some previous diverse results regarding the TC weakening in environmental VWS could be partly due to the different warm‐core strengths and heights of the initial TC vortex. 

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2. Quantifying the Environmental Effects on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Using a Simple Dynamically Based Dynamical System Model

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0058.1  

   Xu, Jing; Wang, Yuqing; Yang, Chi (December 2023, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Abstract Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is quite challenging due to multiple competing processes among the TC internal dynamics and the environment. Most previous studies have evaluated the environmental effects on TC intensity change from both internal dynamics and external influence. This study quantifies the environmental effects on TC intensity change using a simple dynamically based dynamical system (DBDS) model recently developed. In this simple model, the environmental effects are uniquely represented by a ventilation parameterB, which can be expressed as multiplicative of individual ventilation parameters of the corresponding environmental effects. Their individual ventilation parameters imply their relative importance to the bulk environmental ventilation effect and thus to the TC intensity change. Six environmental factors known to affect TC intensity change are evaluated in the DBDS model using machine learning approaches with the best track data for TCs over the North Atlantic, central, eastern, and western North Pacific and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) dataset during 1982–2021. Results show that the deep-layer vertical wind shear (VWS) is the dominant ventilation factor to reduce the intrinsic TC intensification rate or to drive the TC weakening, with its ventilation parameter ranging between 0.5 and 0.8 when environmental VWS between 200 and 850 hPa is larger than 8 m s⁻¹. Other environmental factors are generally secondary, with their respective ventilation parameters over 0.8. An interesting result is the strong dependence of the environmental effects on the stage of TC development. 

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3. Intensity Change of Binary Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in Idealized Numerical Simulations: Two Initially Identical Mature TCs

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0116.1  

   Liu, Hao-Yan; Wang, Yuqing; Gu, Jian-Feng (January 2021, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract This study investigates the intensity change of binary tropical cyclones (TCs) in idealized cloud-resolving simulations. Four simulations of binary interaction between two initially identical mature TCs of about 70 ms −1 with initial separation distance varying from 480 to 840 km are conducted in a quiescent f -plane environment. Results show that two identical TCs finally merge if their initial separation distance is within 600 km. The binary TCs presents two weakening stages (stages 1 and 3) with a quasi-steady evolution (stage 2) in between. Such intensity change of one TC is correlated with the upper-layer vertical wind shear (VWS) associated with the upper-level anticyclone (ULA) of the other TC. The potential temperature budget shows that eddy radial advection of potential temperature induced by large upper-layer VWS contributes to the weakening of the upper-level warm core and thereby the weakening of binary TCs in stage 1. In stage 2, the upper-layer VWS first weakens and then re-strengthens with relatively weak magnitude, leading to a quasi-steady intensity evolution. In stage 3, due to the increasing upper-layer VWS, the non-merging binary TCs weaken again until their separation distance exceeds the local Rossby radius of deformation of the ULA (about 1600 km), which can serve as a dynamical critical distance within which direct interaction can occur between two TCs. In the merging cases, the binary TCs weaken prior to merging because highly asymmetric structure develops as a result of strong horizontal deformation of the inner core. However, the merged system intensifies shortly after merging. 

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4. An Observational Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Tilt, Precipitation Structure, and Intensity Change

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0089.1  

   Fischer, Michael S.; Rogers, Robert F.; Reasor, Paul D.; Dunion, Jason P. (January 2024, Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract This study uses a recently developed airborne Doppler radar database to explore how vortex misalignment is related to tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation structure and intensity change. It is found that for relatively weak TCs, defined here as storms with a peak 10-m wind of 65 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s⁻¹) or less, the magnitude of vortex tilt is closely linked to the rate of subsequent TC intensity change, especially over the next 12–36 h. In strong TCs, defined as storms with a peak 10-m wind greater than 65 kt, vortex tilt magnitude is only weakly correlated with TC intensity change. Based on these findings, this study focuses on how vortex tilt is related to TC precipitation structure and intensity change in weak TCs. To illustrate how the TC precipitation structure is related to the magnitude of vortex misalignment, weak TCs are divided into two groups: small-tilt and large-tilt TCs. In large-tilt TCs, storms display a relatively large radius of maximum wind, the precipitation structure is asymmetric, and convection occurs more frequently near the midtropospheric TC center than the lower-tropospheric TC center. Alternatively, small-tilt TCs exhibit a greater areal coverage of precipitation inward of a relatively small radius of maximum wind. Greater rates of TC intensification, including rapid intensification, are shown to occur preferentially for TCs with greater vertical alignment and storms in relatively favorable environments. Significance StatementAccurately predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is challenging. This is particularly true for storms that undergo rapid intensity changes. Recent numerical modeling studies have suggested that vortex vertical alignment commonly precedes the onset of rapid intensification; however, this consensus is not unanimous. Until now, there has not been a systematic observational analysis of the relationship between vortex misalignment and TC intensity change. This study addresses this gap using a recently developed airborne radar database. We show that the degree of vortex misalignment is a useful predictor for TC intensity change, but primarily for weak storms. In these cases, more aligned TCs exhibit precipitation patterns that favor greater intensification rates. Future work should explore the causes of changes in vortex alignment. 

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5. Factors Affecting the Weakening Rate of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0356.1  

   Fei, Rong; Xu, Jing; Wang, Yuqing; Yang, Chi (September 2020, Monthly Weather Review)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract In this study, based on the 6-hourly tropical cyclone (TC) best track data and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, statistical analyses as well as a machine learning approach, XGBoost, are used to identify and quantify factors that affect the overwater weakening rate (WR) of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980–2017. Statistical analyses show that the TC rapid weakening events usually occur when intense TCs cross regions with a sharp decrease in sea surface temperature (DSST) with relatively faster eastward or northward translational speeds, and move into regions with large environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) and dry conditions in the upshear-left quadrant. Results from XGBoost indicate that the relative intensity of TC (TC intensity normalized by its maximum potential intensity), DSST, and VWS are dominant factors determining TC WR, contributing 26.0%, 18.3%, and 14.9% to TC WR, and 9, 5, and 5 m s−1 day−1 to the variability of TC WR, respectively. Relative humidity in the upshear-left quadrant of VWS, zonal translational speed, divergence at 200 hPa, and meridional translational speed contribute 12.1%, 11.8%, 8.8%, and 8.1% to TC WR, respectively, but only contribute 2–3 m s−1 day−1 to the variability of TC WR individually. These findings suggest that the improved accurate analysis and prediction of the dominant factors may lead to substantial improvements in the prediction of TC WR. 

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