More Like this

1. Probabilistic Calibration and Prediction of Seismic Soil Liquefaction using quoFEM

   Satish, AB; Yi, S; Nair, AS; Arduino, P (September 2022, Springer, Cham)

   Wang, L; Zhang, JM; Wang, R (Ed.)

   Liquefaction under cyclic loads can be predicted through advanced (liquefaction-capable) material constitutive models. However, such constitutive models have several input parameters whose values are often unknown or imprecisely known, requiring calibration via lab/in-situ test data. This study proposes a Bayesian updating framework that integrates probabilistic calibration of the soil model and probabilistic prediction of lateral spreading due to seismic liquefaction. In particular, the framework consists of three main parts: (1) Parametric study based on global sensitivity analysis, (2) Bayesian calibration of the primary input parameters of the constitutive model, and (3) Forward uncertainty propagation through a computational model simulating the response of a soil column under earthquake loading. For demonstration, the PM4Sand model is adopted, and cyclic strength data of Ottawa F-65 sand from cyclic direct simple shear tests are utilized to calibrate the model. The three main uncertainty analyses are performed using quoFEM, a SimCenter open-source software application for uncertainty quantification and optimization in the field of natural hazard engineering. The results demonstrate the potential of the framework linked with quoFEM to perform calibration and uncertainty propagation using sophisticated simulation models that can be part of a performance-based design workflow. 

   more » « less
2. Probabilistic Calibration and Prediction of Seismic Soil Liquefaction Using quoFEM

   Bangalore Satish, A.; Yi, S.-ri; Nair, A.S.; Arduino, P. (September 2022, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Performance Based Design in Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering (Beijing 2022))

   Liquefaction under cyclic loads can be predicted through advanced (liquefaction-capable) material constitutive models. However, such constitutive models have several input parameters whose values are often unknown or imprecisely known, requiring calibration via lab/in-situ test data. This study proposes a Bayesian updating framework that integrates probabilistic calibration of the soil model and probabilistic prediction of lateral spreading due to seismic liquefaction. In particular, the framework consists of three main parts: (1) Parametric study based on global sensitivity analysis, (2) Bayesian calibration of the primary input parameters of the constitutive model, and (3) Forward uncertainty propagation through a computational model simulating the response of a soil column under earthquake loading. For demonstration, the PM4Sand model is adopted, and cyclic strength data of Ottawa F-65 sand from cyclic direct simple shear tests are utilized to calibrate the model. The three main uncertainty analyses are performed using quoFEM, a SimCenter open-source software application for uncertainty quantification and optimization in the field of natural hazard engineering. The results demonstrate the potential of the framework linked with quoFEM to perform calibration and uncertainty propagation using sophisticated simulation models that can be part of a performance-based design workflow. 

   more » « less
3. Creating and Evaluating Uncertainty Estimates with Neural Networks for Environmental-Science Applications

   https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-22-0061.1  

   Haynes, Katherine; Lagerquist, Ryan; McGraw, Marie; Musgrave, Kate; Ebert-Uphoff, Imme (April 2023, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems)

   Abstract Neural networks (NN) have become an important tool for prediction tasks—both regression and classification—in environmental science. Since many environmental-science problems involve life-or-death decisions and policy making, it is crucial to provide not only predictions but also an estimate of the uncertainty in the predictions. Until recently, very few tools were available to provide uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NN predictions. However, in recent years the computer-science field has developed numerous UQ approaches, and several research groups are exploring how to apply these approaches in environmental science. We provide an accessible introduction to six of these UQ approaches, then focus on tools for the next step, namely, to answer the question:Once we obtain an uncertainty estimate (using any approach), how do we know whether it is good or bad?To answer this question, we highlight four evaluation graphics and eight evaluation scores that are well suited for evaluating and comparing uncertainty estimates (NN based or otherwise) for environmental-science applications. We demonstrate the UQ approaches and UQ-evaluation methods for two real-world problems: 1) estimating vertical profiles of atmospheric dewpoint (a regression task) and 2) predicting convection over Taiwan based onHimawari-8satellite imagery (a classification task). We also provide Jupyter notebooks with Python code for implementing the UQ approaches and UQ-evaluation methods discussed herein. This article provides the environmental-science community with the knowledge and tools to start incorporating the large number of emerging UQ methods into their research. Significance StatementNeural networks are used for many environmental-science applications, some involving life-or-death decision-making. In recent years new methods have been developed to provide much-needed uncertainty estimates for NN predictions. We seek to accelerate the adoption of these methods in the environmental-science community with an accessible introduction to 1) methods for computing uncertainty estimates in NN predictions and 2) methods for evaluating such estimates. 

   more » « less
4. Bayesian Calibration of Multiple Coupled Simulation Models for Metal Additive Manufacturing: A Bayesian Network Approach

   https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4052270  

   Ye, Jiahui; Mahmoudi, Mohamad; Karayagiz, Kubra; Johnson, Luke; Seede, Raiyan; Karaman, Ibrahim; Arroyave, Raymundo; Elwany, Alaa (March 2022, ASCE-ASME J Risk and Uncert in Engrg Sys Part B Mech Engrg)

   Abstract Modeling and simulation for additive manufacturing (AM) are critical enablers for understanding process physics, conducting process planning and optimization, and streamlining qualification and certification. It is often the case that a suite of hierarchically linked (or coupled) simulation models is needed to achieve the above tasks, as the entirety of the complex physical phenomena relevant to the understanding of process-structure-property-performance relationships in the context of AM precludes the use of a single simulation framework. In this study using a Bayesian network approach, we address the important problem of conducting uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis for multiple hierarchical models to establish process-microstructure relationships in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) AM. More significantly, we present the framework to calibrate and analyze simulation models that have experimentally unmeasurable variables, which are quantities of interest predicted by an upstream model and deemed necessary for the downstream model in the chain. We validate the framework using a case study on predicting the microstructure of a binary nickel-niobium alloy processed using LPBF as a function of processing parameters. Our framework is shown to be able to predict segregation of niobium with up to 94.3% prediction accuracy on test data. 

   more » « less
5. Quantification of model uncertainty on path-space via goal-oriented relative entropy

   https://doi.org/10.1051/m2an/2020070  

   Birrell, Jeremiah; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc (January 2021, ESAIM: Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Analysis)

   Quantifying the impact of parametric and model-form uncertainty on the predictions of stochastic models is a key challenge in many applications. Previous work has shown that the relative entropy rate is an effective tool for deriving path-space uncertainty quantification (UQ) bounds on ergodic averages. In this work we identify appropriate information-theoretic objects for a wider range of quantities of interest on path-space, such as hitting times and exponentially discounted observables, and develop the corresponding UQ bounds. In addition, our method yields tighter UQ bounds, even in cases where previous relative-entropy-based methods also apply, e.g. , for ergodic averages. We illustrate these results with examples from option pricing, non-reversible diffusion processes, stochastic control, semi-Markov queueing models, and expectations and distributions of hitting times. 

   more » « less