Abstract There is a growing recognition that subsurface fluid injection can produce not only earthquakes, but also aseismic slip on faults. A major challenge in understanding interactions between injection-related aseismic and seismic slip on faults is identifying aseismic slip on the field scale, given that most monitored fields are only equipped with seismic arrays. We present a modeling workflow for evaluating the possibility of aseismic slip, given observational constraints on the spatial-temporal distribution of microseismicity, injection rate, and wellhead pressure. Our numerical model simultaneously simulates discrete off-fault microseismic events and aseismic slip on a main fault during fluid injection. We apply the workflow to the 2012 Enhanced Geothermal System injection episode at Cooper Basin, Australia, which aimed to stimulate a water-saturated granitic reservoir containing a highly permeable ($$k = 10^{-13} - 10^{-12}$$ $$\hbox {m}{^2}$$ ) fault zone. We find that aseismic slip likely contributed to half of the total moment release. In addition, fault weakening from pore pressure changes, not elastic stress transfer from aseismic slip, induces the majority of observed microseismic events, given the inferred stress state. We derive a theoretical model to better estimate the time-dependent spatial extent of seismicity triggered by increases in pore pressure. To our knowledge, this is the first time injection-induced aseismic slip in a granitic reservoir has been inferred, suggesting that aseismic slip could be widespread across a range of lithologies. 
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                            Untangling the environmental and tectonic drivers of the Noto earthquake swarm in Japan
                        
                    
    
            The underlying mechanism of the ongoing seismic swarm in the Noto Peninsula, Japan, which generates earthquakes at 10 times the average regional rate, remains elusive. We capture the evolution of the subsurface stress state by monitoring changes in seismic wave velocities over an 11-year period. A sustained long-term increase in seismic velocity that is seasonally modulated drops before the earthquake swarm. We use a three-dimensional hydromechanical model to quantify environmentally driven variations in excess pore pressure, revealing its crucial role in governing the seasonal modulation with a stress sensitivity of 6 × 10−9per pascal. The decrease in seismic velocity aligns with vertical surface uplift, suggesting potential fluid migration from a high–pore pressure zone at depth. Stress changes induced by abnormally intense snow falls contribute to initiating the swarm through subsequent perturbations to crustal pore pressure. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 2103408
- PAR ID:
- 10505998
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Association for the Advancement of Science
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 19
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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