This content will become publicly available on March 25, 2025
We consider the problem of learning fair policies for multi-stage selection problems from observational data. This problem arises in several high-stakes domains such as company hiring, loan approval, or bail decisions where outcomes (e.g., career success, loan repayment, recidivism) are only observed for those selected. We propose a multi-stage framework that can be augmented with various fairness constraints, such as demographic parity or equal opportunity. This problem is a highly intractable infinite chance-constrained program involving the unknown joint distribution of covariates and outcomes. Motivated by the potential impact of selection decisions on people’s lives and livelihoods, we propose to focus on interpretable linear selection rules. Leveraging tools from causal inference and sample average approximation, we obtain an asymptotically consistent solution to this selection problem by solving a mixed binary conic optimization problem, which can be solved using standard off-the-shelf solvers. We conduct extensive computational experiments on a variety of datasets adapted from the UCI repository on which we show that our proposed approaches can achieve an 11.6% improvement in precision and a 38% reduction in the measure of unfairness compared to the existing selection policy.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10510700
- Publisher / Repository:
- AAAI Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
- Volume:
- 38
- Issue:
- 19
- ISSN:
- 2159-5399
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 21188 to 21196
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
We study the design of a class of incentive mechanisms that can effectively prevent cheating in a strategic classification and regression problem. A conventional strategic classification or regression problem is modeled as a Stackelberg game, or a principal-agent problem between the designer of a classifier (the principal) and individuals subject to the classifier's decisions (the agents), potentially from different demographic groups. The former benefits from the accuracy of its decisions, whereas the latter may have an incentive to game the algorithm into making favorable but erroneous decisions. While prior works tend to focus on how to design an algorithm to be more robust to such strategic maneuvering, this study focuses on an alternative, which is to design incentive mechanisms to shape the utilities of the agents and induce effort that genuinely improves their skills, which in turn benefits both parties in the Stackelberg game. Specifically, the principal and the mechanism provider (which could also be the principal itself) move together in the first stage, publishing and committing to a classifier and an incentive mechanism. The agents are (simultaneous) second movers and best respond to the published classifier and incentive mechanism. When an agent's strategic action merely changes its observable features, it hurts the performance of the algorithm. However, if the action leads to improvement in the agent's true label, it not only helps the agent achieve better decision outcomes, but also preserves the performance of the algorithm. We study how a subsidy mechanism can induce improvement actions, positively impact a number of social well-being metrics, such as the overall skill levels of the agents (efficiency) and positive or true positive rate differences between different demographic groups (fairness).more » « less
-
Multi-stage stochastic linear programs (MSLPs) are notoriously hard to solve in general. Linear decision rules (LDRs) yield an approximation of an MSLP by restricting the decisions at each stage to be an affine function of the observed uncertain parameters. Finding an optimal LDR is a static optimization problem that provides an upper bound on the optimal value of the MSLP, and, under certain assumptions, can be formulated as an explicit linear program. Similarly, as proposed by Kuhn et al. (Math Program 130(1):177–209, 2011) a lower bound for an MSLP can be obtained by restricting decisions in the dual of the MSLP to follow an LDR. We propose a new approximation approach for MSLPs, two-stage LDRs. The idea is to require only the state variables in an MSLP to follow an LDR, which is sufficient to obtain an approximation of an MSLP that is a two-stage stochastic linear program (2SLP). We similarly propose to apply LDR only to a subset of the variables in the dual of the MSLP, which yields a 2SLP approximation of the dual that provides a lower bound on the optimal value of the MSLP. Although solving the corresponding 2SLP approximations exactly is intractable in general, we investigate how approximate solution approaches that have been developed for solving 2SLP can be applied to solve these approximation problems, and derive statistical upper and lower bounds on the optimal value of the MSLP. In addition to potentially yielding better policies and bounds, this approach requires many fewer assumptions than are required to obtain an explicit reformulation when using the standard static LDR approach. A computational study on two example problems demonstrates that using a two-stage LDR can yield significantly better primal policies and modestly better dual policies than using policies based on a static LDR.more » « less
-
Abstract In this work, we proposed a two‐stage stochastic programming model for a four‐echelon supply chain problem considering possible disruptions at the nodes (supplier and facilities) as well as the connecting transportation modes and operational uncertainties in form of uncertain demands. The first stage decisions are supplier choice, capacity levels for manufacturing sites and warehouses, inventory levels, transportation modes selection, and shipment decisions for the certain periods, and the second stage anticipates the cost of meeting future demands subject to the first stage decision. Comparing the solution obtained for the two‐stage stochastic model with a multi‐period deterministic model shows that the stochastic model makes a better first stage decision to hedge against the future demand. This study demonstrates the managerial viability of the proposed model in decision making for supply chain network in which both disruption and operational uncertainties are accounted for.
-
Algorithmic fairness in the context of personalized recommendation presents significantly different challenges to those commonly encountered in classification tasks. Researchers studying classification have generally considered fairness to be a matter of achieving equality of outcomes (or some other metric) between a protected and unprotected group, and built algorithmic interventions on this basis. We argue that fairness in real-world application settings in general, and especially in the context of personalized recommendation, is much more complex and multi-faceted, requiring a more general approach. To address the fundamental problem of fairness in the presence of multiple stakeholders, with different definitions of fairness, we propose the Social Choice for Recommendation Under Fairness – Dynamic (SCRUF-D) architecture, which formalizes multistakeholder fairness in recommender systems as a two-stage social choice problem. In particular, we express recommendation fairness as a combination of an allocation and an aggregation problem, which integrate both fairness concerns and personalized recommendation provisions, and derive new recommendation techniques based on this formulation. We demonstrate the ability of our framework to dynamically incorporate multiple fairness concerns using both real-world and synthetic datasets.more » « less
-
Abstract New land protection is expensive, and many conservation NGOs rely on loans to help fund land acquisition in the short term. Conservation loans are offered by a range of philanthropic organizations that often allow much more flexible terms than traditional loans. Thus, conservation loans may behave differently from other types of loan. There are costs and benefits to relying on loan financing to fund land protection that organizations need to consider, but few data are available to inform such evaluations. Here, we focus on estimating the financial cost of these loans, by analyzing loans used to support land protection projects that were provided through an internal revolving fund at a large U.S. conservation NGO. We estimate loan financing cost through accrued interest and test deal‐level characteristics for their ability to explain or predict loan interest. We find that loan performance can be highly uncertain and costs can be substantial in relation to the total purchase price. An improved ability to estimate the overall cost of conservation loans upfront may determine just which conservation projects are prioritized for investment and avoid costly misallocations of conservation resources.