Abstract The Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) is the largest strike‐slip fault in Iceland and poses a high seismic risk to coastal communities. To investigate physics‐based constraints on earthquake hazards, we construct three fault system models of varying geometric complexity and model 79 3‐D multi‐fault dynamic rupture scenarios in the HFFZ. By assuming a simple regional prestress and varying hypocenter locations, we analyze the rupture dynamics, fault interactions, and the associated ground motions up to 2.5 Hz. All models account for regional seismotectonics, topo‐bathymetry, 3‐D subsurface velocity, viscoelastic attenuation, and off‐fault plasticity, and we explore the effect of fault roughness. The rupture scenarios obey earthquake scaling relations and predict magnitudes comparable to those of historical events. We show how fault system geometry and segmentation, hypocenter location, and prestress can affect the potential for rupture cascading, leading to varying slip distributions across different portions of the fault system. Our earthquake scenarios yield spatially heterogeneous near‐field ground motions modulated by geometric complexities, topography, and rupture directivity, particularly in the near‐field. The average ground motion attenuation characteristics of dynamic rupture scenarios of comparable magnitudes and mean stress drop are independent of variations in source complexity, magnitude‐consistent and in good agreement with the latest regional empirical ground motion models. However, physics‐based ground motion variability changes considerably with fault‐distance and increases for unilateral compared to bilateral ruptures. Systematic variations in physics‐based near‐fault ground motions provide important insights into the mechanics and potential earthquake hazard of large strike‐slip fault systems, such as the HFFZ.
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Dynamic Rupture Models of the 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju, South Korea, Earthquake, Constrained by a Kinematic Rupture Model and Seismic Waveform Data
ABSTRACT The ML 5.8 earthquake that jolted Gyeongju in southeastern Korea in 2016 was the country’s largest inland event since instrumental seismic monitoring began in 1978. We developed dynamic rupture models of the Gyeongju event constrained by near-source ground-motion data using full 3D spontaneous dynamic rupture modeling with the slip-weakening friction law. Based on our results, we propose two simple dynamic rupture models with constant strength excess (SE) and slip-weakening distance (Dc) that produce near-source ground-motion waveforms compatible with recorded ones in the low-frequency band. Both dynamic models exhibit relatively large stress-drop values, consistent with previous estimates constrained by source spectrum analyses. The fracture energy estimates were also larger than those predicted by a scaling relationship with the seismic moment. The dynamic features constrained in this study by spontaneous rupture modeling and waveform comparison may help understand the source and ground-motion characteristics of future large events in southeastern Korea and thus the seismic hazard of the region.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2147340
- PAR ID:
- 10511279
- Publisher / Repository:
- Seismological Society of America
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
- Volume:
- 114
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0037-1106
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 710 to 725
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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