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Rapid advancement in inverse modeling methods have brought into light their susceptibility to imperfect data. This has made it imperative to obtain more explainable and trustworthy estimates from these models. In hydrology, basin characteristics can be noisy or missing, impacting streamflow prediction. We propose a probabilistic inverse model framework that can reconstruct robust hydrology basin characteristics from dynamic input weather driver and streamflow response data. We address two aspects of building more explainable inverse models, uncertainty estimation (uncertainty due to imperfect data and imperfect model) and robustness. This can help improve the trust of water managers, handling of noisy data and reduce costs. We also propose an uncertainty based loss regularization that offers removal of 17% of temporal artifacts in reconstructions, 36% reduction in uncertainty and 4% higher coverage rate for basin characteristics. The forward model performance (streamflow estimation) is also improved by 6% using these uncertainty learning based reconstructions.
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Towards Entity-Aware Conditional Variational Inference for Heterogeneous Time-Series Prediction: An application to Hydrology
Many environmental systems (e.g., hydrology basins) can be modeled as an entity whose response (e.g., streamflow) depends on drivers (e.g., weather) conditioned on their characteristics (e.g., soil properties). We introduce Entity-aware Conditional Variational Inference (EA-CVI), a novel probabilistic inverse modeling approach, to deduce entity characteristics from observed driver-response data. EA-CVI infers probabilistic latent representations that can accurately predict responses for diverse entities, particularly in out-of-sample few-shot settings. EA-CVI's latent embeddings encapsulate diverse entity characteristics within compact, low-dimensional representations. EA-CVI proficiently identifies dominant modes of variation in responses and offers the opportunity to infer a physical interpretation of the underlying attributes that shape these responses. EA-CVI can also generate new data samples by sampling from the learned distribution, making it useful in zero-shot scenarios. EA-CVI addresses the need for uncertainty estimation, particularly during extreme events, rendering it essential for data-driven decision-making in real-world applications. Extensive evaluations on a renowned hydrology benchmark dataset, CAMELS-GB, validate EA-CVI's abilities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2313174
- PAR ID:
- 10511790
- Publisher / Repository:
- SIAM
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM24)
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- representation learning , meta-learning few-shot learning zero-shot learning environmental applications
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Location:
- Houston, TX
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611978032.38
