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Abstract Interior marsh pond formation has been commonly observed in tidal marshes affected by high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR). However, it is difficult to conclude whether an accretion deficit (accretion which does not keep pace with RSLR) or natural ice and wrack disturbance has driven pond formation. We propose that marsh deterioration caused by accretion deficit can be differentiated from that caused by other disturbances based upon temporal vegetation changes and the spatial configuration of vegetation zones relative to tidal creeks and the marsh platform. We tested this hypothesis in six newly ponded sites within RSLR‐affected marshes in Deal Island, Chesapeake Bay. At each site, we used field surveys and remote sensing to study spatiotemporal dynamics of marsh vegetation, marsh topography, and tidal creek incision. We found flood tolerant plants displaced flood intolerant species over time in the landward direction, or upslope, of ponds. A reverse species transition was observed seaward of ponds because tidal creek incision alleviated interior marsh inundation. The landscape‐scale biogeographic pattern we have recognized sheds light on how plants adapt to chronically reshaped geomorphological configurations of the marsh platform, which differentiates ponding caused by accretion deficit from ponding caused by natural and artificial disturbances. Furthermore, our results point to vegetation patterns that can be used as early warning signals of interior marsh loss to ponding. As ponding has been a major driver of tidal marsh habitat loss in microtidal marshes around the world, early indicators of decline are sorely needed to direct conservation activities.
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Microtopographic Variation as a Potential Early Indicator of Ecosystem State Change and Vulnerability in Salt Marshes
Abstract As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem resilience. Increased spatial variability in salt marshes at the landscape scale has been used to quantify the propagation of ponding in salt marsh interiors, but ponding at the landscape scale follows a state change rather than predicts it. Here, we suggest a novel application of commonly collected surface elevation table (SET) data and explore millimeter-scale marsh surface microtopography as a potential early indicator of ecosystem transition. We find an increase in spatial variability using multiple metrics of microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marsh communities across the North American Atlantic seaboard. Increasing microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marshes mirrored increasing trends in variance when a tipping point is approached in other alternative stable state systems — indicating that early warning signals of marsh drowning and ecosystem transition are observable at small-spatial scales prior to runaway ecosystem degradation. Congruence between traditional and novel metrics of marsh vulnerability suggests that microtopographic metrics can be used to identify hidden vulnerability before widespread marsh degradation. This novel analysis can be easily applied to existing SET records expanding the traditional focus on vertical change to additionally encapsulate lateral processes.
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- PAR ID:
- 10511819
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Science + Business Media
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Estuaries and Coasts
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1559-2723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2120-2134
- Size(s):
- p. 2120-2134
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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