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Abstract Connectivity between adjacent ecosystems is thought to increase ecosystem resilience and function. In coastal ecosystems, the exchange of sediment and nutrients between mudflats and marshes is important for the long‐term dynamics of both systems. Mudflat morphodynamics are driven by the interaction of waves and sediment erodibility, which is a function of sediment type and the presence of biostabilizers such as microphytobenthos. However, there is a poor understanding about how the evolution of mudflats may impact the morphodynamics and function of adjacent salt marshes. Here, we use a Coastal Landscape Transect model connecting mudflats and marshes to investigate how microphytobenthos influence the coupled behavior of mudflats and marshes, and how that coupled behavior influences carbon storage. We find that biofilms reduce the connectivity between mudflats and marshes by reducing erodibility and sediment exchange. Reduced connectivity associated with microphytobenthos leads to a shallower mudflat and more carbon stored in the mudflat sediments, which in turn cascades to a higher combined marsh and mudflat carbon stock. Furthermore, our results highlight the role of connectivity across the coastal landscape and suggest that biostabilization leads to relatively small changes in morphodynamics but relatively large changes in ecosystem function. 

ABSTRACT Sea level rise and storm surges affect coastal forests along low‐lying shorelines. Salinization and flooding kill trees and favour the encroachment of salt‐tolerant marsh vegetation. The hydrology of this ecological transition is complex and requires a multidisciplinary approach. Sea level rise (press) and storms (pulses) act on different timescales, affecting the forest vegetation in different ways. Salinization can occur either by vertical infiltration during flooding or from the aquifer driven by tides and sea level rise. Here, we detail the ecohydrological processes acting in the critical zone of retreating coastal forests. An increase in sea level has a three‐pronged effect on flooding and salinization: It raises the maximum elevation of storm surges, shifts the freshwater‐saltwater interface inland, and elevates the water table, leading to surface flooding from below. Trees can modify their root systems and local soil hydrology to better withstand salinization. Hydrological stress from intermittent storm surges inhibits tree growth, as evidenced by tree ring analysis. Tree rings also reveal a lag between the time when tree growth significantly slows and when the tree ultimately dies. Tree dieback reduces transpiration, retaining more water in the soil and creating conditions more favourable for flooding. Sedimentation from storm waters combined to organic matter decomposition can change the landscape, affecting flooding and runoff. Our results indicate that only a multidisciplinary approach can fully capture the ecohydrology of retreating forests in a period of accelerated sea level rise. 

Abstract Consumers can directly (e.g., consumption) and indirectly (e.g., trophic cascades) influence carbon cycling in blue carbon ecosystems. Previous work found that large grazers have nuanced effects on carbon stocks, yet, small, bioturbating‐grazers, which remove plant biomass and alter sediment properties, remain an understudied driver of carbon cycling. We used field‐derived and remote sensing data to quantify how the purple marsh crab,Sesarma reticulatum, influenced carbon stocks, flux, and recovery in salt marshes.Sesarmacaused a 40%–70% loss in carbon stocks as fronts propagated inland (i.e., ungrazed to recovered transition), with front migration rates accelerating over time. Despite latitudinal differences, front migration rate had no effect on carbon stocks, flux, or time to replacement. When we includedSesarmadisturbance in carbon flux calculations, we found it may take 5–100 years for marshes to replace lost carbon, if at all. Combined, we show that small grazers cause a net loss in carbon stocks as they move through the landscape, and irrespective of migration rate, these grazer‐driven impacts persist for decades. This work showcases the significant role of consumers in carbon storage and flux, challenging the classic paradigm of plant–sediment feedbacks as the primary ecogeomorphic driver of carbon cycling in blue carbon ecosystems. 

Abstract As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem resilience. Increased spatial variability in salt marshes at the landscape scale has been used to quantify the propagation of ponding in salt marsh interiors, but ponding at the landscape scale follows a state change rather than predicts it. Here, we suggest a novel application of commonly collected surface elevation table (SET) data and explore millimeter-scale marsh surface microtopography as a potential early indicator of ecosystem transition. We find an increase in spatial variability using multiple metrics of microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marsh communities across the North American Atlantic seaboard. Increasing microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marshes mirrored increasing trends in variance when a tipping point is approached in other alternative stable state systems — indicating that early warning signals of marsh drowning and ecosystem transition are observable at small-spatial scales prior to runaway ecosystem degradation. Congruence between traditional and novel metrics of marsh vulnerability suggests that microtopographic metrics can be used to identify hidden vulnerability before widespread marsh degradation. This novel analysis can be easily applied to existing SET records expanding the traditional focus on vertical change to additionally encapsulate lateral processes. 

Abstract Rising sea levels lead to the migration of salt marshes into coastal forests, thereby shifting both ecosystem composition and function. In this study, we investigate leaf litter decomposition, a critical component of forest carbon cycling, across the marsh-forest boundary with a focus on the potential influence of environmental gradients (i.e., temperature, light, moisture, salinity, and oxygen) on decomposition rates. To examine litter decomposition across these potentially competing co-occurring environmental gradients, we deployed litterbags within distinct forest health communities along the marsh-forest continuum and monitored decomposition rates over 6 months. Our results revealed that while the burial depth of litter enhanced decomposition within any individual forest zone by approximately 60% (decay rate = 0.272 ± 0.029 yr⁻¹(surface), 0.450 ± 0.039 yr⁻¹(buried)), we observed limited changes in decomposition rates across the marsh-forest boundary with only slightly enhanced decomposition in mid-forest soils that are being newly impacted by saltwater intrusion and shrub encroachment. The absence of linear changes in decomposition rates indicates non-linear interactions between the observed environmental gradients that maintain a consistent net rate of decomposition across the marsh-forest boundary. However, despite similar decomposition rates across the boundary, the accumulated soil litter layer disappears because leaf litter influx decreases from the absence of mature trees. Our finding that environmental gradients counteract expected decomposition trends could inform carbon-climate model projections and may be indicative of decomposition dynamics present in other transitioning ecosystem boundaries. 

Abstract Landward migration of coastal ecosystems in response to sea-level rise is altering coastal carbon dynamics. Although such landscapes rapidly accumulate soil carbon, barrier-island migration jeopardizes long-term storage through burial and exposure of organic-rich backbarrier deposits along the lower beach and shoreface. Here, we quantify the carbon flux associated with the seaside erosion of backbarrier lagoon and peat deposits along the Virginia Atlantic Coast. Barrier transgression leads to the release of approximately 26.1 Gg of organic carbon annually. Recent (1994–2017 C.E.) erosion rates exceed annual soil carbon accumulation rates (1984–2020) in adjacent backbarrier ecosystems by approximately 30%. Additionally, shoreface erosion of thick lagoon sediments accounts for >80% of total carbon losses, despite containing lower carbon densities than overlying salt marsh peat. Together, these results emphasize the impermanence of carbon stored in coastal environments and suggest that existing landscape-scale carbon budgets may overstate the magnitude of the coastal carbon sink. 

Abstract Sea level rise is leading to the rapid migration of marshes into coastal forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Although complex biophysical interactions likely govern these ecosystem transitions, projections of sea level driven land conversion commonly rely on a simplified “threshold elevation” that represents the elevation of the marsh‐upland boundary based on tidal datums alone. To determine the influence of biophysical drivers on threshold elevations, and their implication for land conversion, we examined almost 100,000 high‐resolution marsh‐forest boundary elevation points, determined independently from tidal datums, alongside hydrologic, ecologic, and geomorphic data in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S. located along the mid‐Atlantic coast. We find five‐fold variations in threshold elevation across the entire estuary, driven not only by tidal range, but also salinity and slope. However, more than half of the variability is unexplained by these variables, which we attribute largely to uncaptured local factors including groundwater discharge, microtopography, and anthropogenic impacts. In the Chesapeake Bay, observed threshold elevations deviate from predicted elevations used to determine sea level driven land conversion by as much as the amount of projected regional sea level rise by 2050. These results suggest that local drivers strongly mediate coastal ecosystem transitions, and that predictions based on elevation and tidal datums alone may misrepresent future land conversion. 

Abstract Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized. 

Abstract The vulnerability of coastal environments to sea-level rise varies spatially, particularly due to local land subsidence. However, high-resolution observations and models of coastal subsidence are scarce, hindering an accurate vulnerability assessment. We use satellite data from 2007 to 2020 to create high-resolution map of subsidence rate at mm-level accuracy for different land covers along the ~3,500 km long US Atlantic coast. Here, we show that subsidence rate exceeding 3 mm per year affects most coastal areas, including wetlands, forests, agricultural areas, and developed regions. Coastal marshes represent the dominant land cover type along the US Atlantic coast and are particularly vulnerable to subsidence. We estimate that 58 to 100% of coastal marshes are losing elevation relative to sea level and show that previous studies substantially underestimate marsh vulnerability by not fully accounting for subsidence. 

Abstract Barrier coastlines and their associated ecosystems are rapidly changing. Barrier islands/spits, marshes, bays, and coastal forests are all thought to be intricately coupled, yet an understanding of how morphologic change in one part of the system affects the system altogether remains limited. Here we explore how sediment exchange controls the migration of different ecosystem boundaries and ecosystem extent over time using a new coupled model framework that connects components of the entire barrier landscape, from the ocean shoreface to mainland forest. In our experiments, landward barrier migration is the primary cause of back‐barrier marsh loss, while periods of barrier stability can allow for recovery of back‐barrier marsh extent. Although sea‐level rise exerts a dominant control on the extent of most ecosystems, we unexpectedly find that, for undeveloped barriers, bay extent is largely insensitive to sea‐level rise because increased landward barrier migration (bay narrowing) offsets increased marsh edge erosion (bay widening).