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There is a substantial and ever-growing corpus of evidence and literature exploring the impacts of Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on society, politics, and humanity as a whole. A separate, parallel body of work has explored existential risks to humanity, including but not limited to that stemming from unaligned Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In this paper, we problematise the notion that current and near-term artificial intelligence technologies have the potential to contribute to existential risk by acting as intermediate risk factors, and that this potential is not limited to the unaligned AGI scenario. We propose the hypothesis that certain already-documented effects of AI can act as existential risk factors, magnifying the likelihood of previously identified sources of existential risk. Moreover, future developments in the coming decade hold the potential to significantly exacerbate these risk factors, even in the absence of artificial general intelligence. Our main contribution is a (non-exhaustive) exposition of potential AI risk factors and the causal relationships between them, focusing on how AI can affect power dynamics and information security. This exposition demonstrates that there exist causal pathways from AI systems to existential risks that do not presuppose hypothetical future AI capabilities.
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Managing the risks of artificial general intelligence: A human factors and ergonomics perspective
Abstract Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is the next and forthcoming evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Though there could be significant benefits to society, there are also concerns that AGI could pose an existential threat. The critical role of Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) in the design of safe, ethical, and usable AGI has been emphasized; however, there is little evidence to suggest that HFE is currently influencing development programs. Further, given the broad spectrum of HFE application areas, it is not clear what activities are required to fulfill this role. This article presents the perspectives of 10 researchers working in AI safety on the potential risks associated with AGI, the HFE concepts that require consideration during AGI design, and the activities required for HFE to fulfill its critical role in what could be humanity's final invention. Though a diverse set of perspectives is presented, there is broad agreement that AGI potentially poses an existential threat, and that many HFE concepts should be considered during AGI design and operation. A range of critical activities are proposed, including collaboration with AGI developers, dissemination of HFE work in other relevant disciplines, the embedment of HFE throughout the AGI lifecycle, and the application of systems HFE methods to help identify and manage risks.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1828010
- PAR ID:
- 10514444
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Periodicals, LLC
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries
- Volume:
- 33
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1090-8471
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 366 to 378
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/hfm.20996
