Abstract Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF‐Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF‐Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients (r), reduced biases, and increased Kling‐Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well‐established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS‐adjusted WRF‐Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF‐Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO‐informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured,rincreases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre‐calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.
more »
« less
Improved Streamflow Simulation by Assimilating In Situ Soil Moisture in Lumped and Distributed Approaches of a Hydrological Model in a Headwater Catchment
Soil moisture data assimilation (SM-DA) is a valuable approach for enhancing streamflow prediction in rainfall-runoff models. However, most studies have focused on incorporating remotely sensed SM, and their results strongly depend on the quality of satellite products. Compared with remote sensing products, in situ observed SM data provide greater accuracy and more effectively capture temporal fluctuations in soil moisture levels. Therefore, the effectiveness of SM-DA in improving streamflow prediction remains site-specific and requires further validation. Here, we employed the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to integrate daily SM into lumped and distributed approaches of the Xinanjiang (XAJ) hydrological model to assess the importance of SM-DA in streamflow prediction. We observed a general improvement in streamflow prediction after conducting SM-DA. Specifically, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency increased from 0.61 to 0.65 for the lumped and from 0.62 to 0.70 for the distributed approaches. Moreover, the efficiency of SM-DA exhibits seasonal variation, with in situ SM proving particularly valuable for streamflow prediction during the wet-cold season compared to the dry-warm season. Notably, daily SM data from deep layers exhibit a stronger capability to improve streamflow prediction compared to surface SM. This indicates the significance of deep SM information for streamflow prediction in mountain areas. Overall, this study effectively demonstrates the efficacy of assimilating SM data to improve hydrological models in streamflow prediction. These findings contribute to our understanding of the connection between SM, streamflow, and hydrological connectivity in headwater catchments.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2012893
- PAR ID:
- 10514649
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Management
- ISSN:
- 0920-4741
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- critical zone observatory
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Abstract Soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) are key variables of the terrestrial water cycle with a strong relationship. This study examines remotely sensed soil moisture and evapotranspiration data assimilation (DA) with the aim of improving drought monitoring. Although numerous efforts have gone into assimilating satellite soil moisture observations into land surface models to improve their predictive skills, little attention has been given to the combined use of soil moisture and evapotranspiration to better characterize hydrologic fluxes. In this study, we assimilate two remotely sensed datasets, namely, Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS) and MODIS evapotranspiration (MODIS16 ET), at 1-km spatial resolution, into the VIC land surface model by means of an evolutionary particle filter method. To achieve this, a fully parallelized framework based on model and domain decomposition using a parallel divide-and-conquer algorithm was implemented. The findings show improvement in soil moisture predictions by multivariate assimilation of both ET and SM as compared to univariate scenarios. In addition, monthly and weekly drought maps are produced using the updated root-zone soil moisture percentiles over the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin in the southeastern United States. The model-based estimates are then compared against the corresponding U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) archive maps. The results are consistent with the USDM maps during the winter and spring season considering the drought extents; however, the drought severity was found to be slightly higher according to DA method. Comparing different assimilation scenarios showed that ET assimilation results in wetter conditions comparing to open-loop and univariate SM DA. The multivariate DA then combines the effects of the two variables and provides an in-between condition.more » « less
-
Abstract Numerous studies have examined the reliability of various precipitation products over the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and modeled its basin hydrology. However, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on precipitation‐induced uncertainties in hydrological simulations using process‐based land surface models. This study examines the propagation of precipitation uncertainty into hydrological simulations over the entire MRB using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) at a high spatial resolution of 0.05° (∼5 km) and without any parameter calibration. Simulations conducted using different precipitation datasets are compared to investigate the discrepancies in streamflow, terrestrial water storage (TWS), soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (ET) caused by precipitation uncertainty. Results indicate that precipitation is a key determinant of simulated streamflow in the MRB; peak flow and soil moisture are particularly sensitive to precipitation input. Further, precipitation data with a higher spatial resolution did not improve the simulations, contrary to the common perception that using meteorological forcing with higher spatial resolution would improve hydrological simulations. In addition, since high flow indicators are particularly influenced by precipitation data, the choice of precipitation data could directly impact flood pulse simulations in the MRB. Notable differences are also found among TWS, soil moisture, and ET simulated using different precipitation products. Moreover, TWS, soil moisture, and ET exhibit a varying degree of sensitivity to precipitation uncertainty. This study provides crucial insights on precipitation‐induced uncertainties in process‐based hydrological modeling and uncovers these uncertainties in the MRB.more » « less
-
Abstract Small streams often lack reliable hydrological data. Environmental agencies play a key role in providing such data; however, these agencies are often challenged by the growing monitoring needs and lack of funding. Given the spatial mismatch between observed data and small watersheds/headwaters, local volunteers can act as potentially valuable research partners. We examine how CrowdHydrology, a citizen science program that collects stream stage and stream temperature observations, improves a hydrologic model of the Boyne River, Michigan, USA. Volunteers provided observations at four calibration sites with different interarrival times of the observations. We tested whether stream stage and stream temperature observations (measured by volunteers) improved the performance of a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Boyne River. Observations were integrated into the model using the ensemble Kalman filter. This framework allowed us to integrate observation error, track the variability of model parameters, and simulate daily streamflow and stream temperature across the watershed. Measures of daily model performance included the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency, modified Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef‐mod), refined index of agreement (dr), and relative bias (Bias). For all calibration sites, estimates of streamflow improved after data assimilation compared to simulations based on initial/default SWAT parameters. Different measures of model performance emerged based on the interarrival times of the observations. Results demonstrate that observations collected by local volunteers, with a certain temporal resolution, can improve SWAT hydrological models and capture central tendency.more » « less
-
Abstract The Consistent Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Soil Moisture (CASM) dataset is a global, consistent, and long-term, remote sensing soil moisture (SM) dataset created using machine learning. It is based on the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission SM data and is aimed at extrapolating SMAP-like quality SM back in time using previous satellite microwave platforms. CASM represents SM in the top soil layer, and it is defined on a global 25 km EASE-2 grid and for 2002–2020 with a 3-day temporal resolution. The seasonal cycle is removed for the neural network training to ensure its skill is targeted at predicting SM extremes. CASM comparison to 367 globalin-situSM monitoring sites shows a SMAP-like median correlation of 0.66. Additionally, the SM product uncertainty was assessed, and both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties were estimated and included in the dataset. CASM dataset can be used to study a wide range of hydrological, carbon cycle, and energy processes since only a consistent long-term dataset allows assessing changes in water availability and water stress.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

