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Abstract This study investigates changes in stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE) of air masses and ozone concentrations from 1960 to 2099 using multiple model simulations from Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under climate change scenario RCP6.0. We employ a lowermost stratosphere mass budget approach with dynamic isentropic surfaces fitted to the tropical tropopause as the upper boundary of lowermost stratosphere. The multi‐model mean (MMM) trends of air mass STEs are all small over all regions, which are within 0.3 (0.1) % decade−1for 1960–2000 (2000–2099). The MMM trends of ozone STE for 1960–2000 are 0.3%, −2.7%, 3.4%, −0.9%, and −2.7% decade−1over the Northern hemisphere (NH) extratropics, Southern hemisphere (SH) extratropics, tropics, extratropics, and globe, respectively. The corresponding ozone STE trends for 2000–2099 are 3.0%, 4.3%, 0.8%, 3.5%, and 4.7% decade−1. Changes in ozone STEs are dominated by ozone concentration changes, driven by climate‐induced changes and ozone‐depleting substance (ODS) changes. For 1960–2000, small changes in ozone STEs in the NH extratropics are due to a cancellation between effects of climate‐induced changes and ODS increases, while the ODS effect dominates in the SH extratropics, leading to a large ozone STE magnitude decrease. Increased ozone transport from tropical troposphere to stratosphere for 1960–2000 is due to increased tropospheric ozone. A decreased global ozone STE magnitude for 1960–2000 was largely caused by ODS‐induced ozone loss that is partly compensated by climate‐induced ozone changes. For 2000–2099, about two‐thirds of global ozone STE magnitude increases are caused by ozone increases in the extratropical lower stratosphere due to climate‐induced changes. The remaining one‐third is caused by ozone recovery due to the phaseout of ODS.
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Stratosphere‐Troposphere Exchanges of Air Mass and Ozone Concentrations From ERA5 and MERRA2: Annual‐Mean Climatology, Seasonal Cycle, and Interannual Variability
Abstract Stratosphere‐Troposphere exchange (STE) of air mass and ozone in ERA5 and Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application, version 2 (MERRA2) reanalyses from 1980 to 2022 are investigated on their seasonal cycle, annual‐mean climatology, and monthly anomalies smoothed using a 1‐year Lanczos low‐pass filter. We employ a lowermost stratosphere mass budget approach with dynamic isentropic surfaces fitted to tropical tropopause as the upper boundary of lowermost stratosphere. The annual‐mean ozone STEs over the NH extratropics, SH extratropics, tropics, extratropics, and globe in ERA5 are −342, −239, 201, −581, and −380 Tg year−1, respectively, versus −305, −224, 168, −529, −361 Tg year−1from MERRA2. The annual‐mean global ozone STE difference between ERA5 and MERRA2 is dominated by the diabatic heating difference, partly compensated by the ozone concentration difference. There are about 40% (−40%) differences between ERA5 and MERRA2 in global ozone STEs in boreal summer (autumn), mainly due to the difference in seasonal breathing of the lowermost stratosphere ozone mass between reanalyses. The correlation coefficient between ERA5 and MERRA2 global ozone mass STE monthly anomalies is 0.57 and thus ERA5 and MERRA2 can only explain each other's variance by 33%. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, quasi‐biennial oscillation, and Brewer‐Dobson circulation explain the variance in the ERA5 (MERRA2) global ozone STE monthly anomalies by 17.3 (5.0), 5.4 (7.2), and 1.0 (3.1)%, respectively. The volcanic aerosol impacts on ozone STEs from ERA5 and MERRA2 have opposite signs and thus are inconclusive. Cautions are therefore needed when using ERA5 and MERRA2 to investigate the STE seasonal cycle and interannual variability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2202812
- PAR ID:
- 10515089
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 128
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039270
