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Abstract This study investigates the causes of shifts in the subsiding edge of the boreal winter Hadley cell (HC) in response to a comprehensive treatment of ocean surface albedo (OSA) in the fully coupled CESM2. The focus is on an in‐depth understanding of the atmospheric dynamical processes that influence the HC subsiding edge. Two sets of experiments were performed: one utilizing the default OSA, and the other employing the comprehensive OSA that accounts for realistic physical mechanisms. The results show that implementing the comprehensive OSA simulates an El Niño‐like warming pattern in reference to the default experiment, which leads to an HC contraction. Examination of zonal mean momentum dynamics in the upper troposphere reveals that variations in meridional winds, crucial for determining the HC extent, are primarily driven by the differences in the horizontal eddy momentum flux derivative. The findings indicate that the equatorward shift in meridional temperature gradients enhances subtropical zonal winds and baroclinicity along their equatorial flanks, amplifying equatorward‐propagating Rossby waves. This, in turn, alters the eddy momentum flux, reshaping the pattern of the derivatives of horizontal eddy momentum flux, constraining meridional winds, and resulting in the equatorward movement of the HC subsiding edge. A scaling theory further supports the results of the HC contraction, showing that the increased subtropical zonal winds and the equatorward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) elevate the atmospheric angular momentum and eventually limit the expansion of the HC. 

Abstract Gravity waves dispersing upward through the tropical stratosphere during opposing phases of the QBO are investigated using ERA5 data for 1979–2019. Log–log plots of two-sided zonal wavenumber–frequency spectra of vertical velocity, and cospectra representing the vertical flux of zonal momentum in the tropical lower stratosphere, exhibit distinctive gravity wave signatures across space and time scales ranging over two orders of magnitude. Spectra of the vertical flux of momentum are indicative of a strong dissipation of westward-propagating gravity waves during the easterly phase and vice versa. This selective “wind filtering” of the waves as they disperse upward imprints the vertical structure of the zonal flow on the resolved wave spectra, characteristic of (re)analysis and/or free-running models. The three-dimensional structures of the gravity waves are documented in composites of the vertical velocity field relative to grid-resolved tropospheric downwelling events at individual reference grid points along the equator. In the absence of a background zonal flow, the waves radiate outward and upward from their respective reference grid points in concentric rings. When a zonal flow is present, the rings are displaced downstream relative to the source and they are amplified upstream of the source and attenuated downstream of it, such that instead of rings, they assume the form of arcs. The log–log spectral representation of wind filtering of equatorial waves by the zonal flow in this paper can be used to diagnose the performance of high-resolution models designed to simulate the circulation of the tropical stratosphere. 

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns. 

Abstract Water vapor and cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are important for the climate and are largely controlled by temperature in the TTL. On interannual timescales, both stratospheric and tropospheric modes of the large‐scale variability could affect temperatures in the TTL. Here multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to investigate explained variance in the cold point tropopause temperature (CPT), cold point tropopause height (CPZ), 83 hPa water vapor (WV83), 83 hPa ozone (O₃83), and total cirrus cloud fraction with cloud base (TTLCCF) and top (ALLCF) above 14.5 km, all averaged over 15°S‐15°N. Predictors of the MLR are a set of stratospheric and tropospheric large‐scale modes of variability. The MLR explains significant variance in CPT (76%), CPZ (78%), WV83 (65%), O₃83 (62%), TTLCCF (52%), and ALLCF (36%). The interannual variability of CPT and WV83 is dominated by stratospheric processes associated with the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Brewer‐Dobson Circulation (BDC), whereas the variability of CPZ, O₃83, TTLCCF and ALLCF is also controlled by 500 hPa temperature (T500). Residual variability in CPT and CPZ not captured by the MLR are further significantly correlated to stratospheric temperature. It is shown that the portion of the BDC's shallow branch missed by the eddy heat flux based BDC index contributes significant amounts of the explained variances. 

Abstract Since 1980, the Arctic surface has warmed four times faster than the global mean. Enhanced Arctic warming relative to the global average warming is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While AA is a robust feature in climate change simulations, models rarely reproduce the observed magnitude of AA, leading to concerns that models may not accurately capture the response of the Arctic to greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use CMIP6 data to train a machine learning algorithm to quantify the influence of internal variability in surface air temperature trends over both the Arctic and global domains. Application of this machine learning algorithm to observations reveals that internal variability increases the Arctic warming but slows global warming in recent decades, inflating AA since 1980 by 38% relative to the externally forced AA. Accounting for the role of internal variability reconciles the discrepancy between simulated and observed AA. 

Abstract Tropical overshooting deep convections (ODCs) play a vital role in vertical transport of boundary layer pollutants, especially short‐lived species, to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, with important implications for stratospheric ozone and climate. We use simulations from a global cloud‐system resolving model, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model (NICAM), to study ODC changes from historical period to the end of the 21st century. NICAM well reproduces Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐satellite observed ODC spatiotemporal patterns. The future occurrences of ODCs with cloud top height above 15.5, 16.9, and 18.4 km scaled by the global temperature increase will increase by 7%/K, 27%/K, and 90%/K, respectively, over ocean where the atmosphere is becoming warmer and wetter. The corresponding changes are −1%/K, 10%/K, and 37%/K over land where the atmosphere will become hotter but drier. Relative to tropical cold point tropopause height, ODCs will only change by 3%/K, with 6%/K over the ocean but −3%/K on land. 

Abstract Stratosphere‐Troposphere exchange (STE) of air mass and ozone in ERA5 and Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application, version 2 (MERRA2) reanalyses from 1980 to 2022 are investigated on their seasonal cycle, annual‐mean climatology, and monthly anomalies smoothed using a 1‐year Lanczos low‐pass filter. We employ a lowermost stratosphere mass budget approach with dynamic isentropic surfaces fitted to tropical tropopause as the upper boundary of lowermost stratosphere. The annual‐mean ozone STEs over the NH extratropics, SH extratropics, tropics, extratropics, and globe in ERA5 are −342, −239, 201, −581, and −380 Tg year⁻¹, respectively, versus −305, −224, 168, −529, −361 Tg year⁻¹from MERRA2. The annual‐mean global ozone STE difference between ERA5 and MERRA2 is dominated by the diabatic heating difference, partly compensated by the ozone concentration difference. There are about 40% (−40%) differences between ERA5 and MERRA2 in global ozone STEs in boreal summer (autumn), mainly due to the difference in seasonal breathing of the lowermost stratosphere ozone mass between reanalyses. The correlation coefficient between ERA5 and MERRA2 global ozone mass STE monthly anomalies is 0.57 and thus ERA5 and MERRA2 can only explain each other's variance by 33%. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, quasi‐biennial oscillation, and Brewer‐Dobson circulation explain the variance in the ERA5 (MERRA2) global ozone STE monthly anomalies by 17.3 (5.0), 5.4 (7.2), and 1.0 (3.1)%, respectively. The volcanic aerosol impacts on ozone STEs from ERA5 and MERRA2 have opposite signs and thus are inconclusive. Cautions are therefore needed when using ERA5 and MERRA2 to investigate the STE seasonal cycle and interannual variability. 

Abstract The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and is characterized by the descent of alternating easterly and westerly zonal winds. The QBO impact on tropical clouds and convection has received great attention in recent years due to its implications for weather and climate. In this study, a 15‐year record of high vertical resolution cloud observations from CALIPSO and a 50 hPa zonal wind QBO index from ERA5 are used to document the QBO impact on equatorial (10°S–10°N) clouds. Observations from radio occultations, the CERES instrument, and the ERA5 reanalysis are also used to document the QBO impact on temperature, cloud radiative effect (CRE), and zonal wind, respectively. It is shown that the QBO impact on zonal mean equatorial cloud fraction has a strong seasonality. The strongest cloud fraction response to the QBO occurs in boreal spring and early summer, which extends from above the mean tropopause to ∼12.5 km and results in a significant longwave CRE anomaly of 1 W/m². The seasonality of the QBO impact on cloud fraction is synchronized with the QBO impacts on temperature and zonal wind in the tropical upper troposphere. 

Abstract This study investigates changes in stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE) of air masses and ozone concentrations from 1960 to 2099 using multiple model simulations from Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under climate change scenario RCP6.0. We employ a lowermost stratosphere mass budget approach with dynamic isentropic surfaces fitted to the tropical tropopause as the upper boundary of lowermost stratosphere. The multi‐model mean (MMM) trends of air mass STEs are all small over all regions, which are within 0.3 (0.1) % decade⁻¹for 1960–2000 (2000–2099). The MMM trends of ozone STE for 1960–2000 are 0.3%, −2.7%, 3.4%, −0.9%, and −2.7% decade⁻¹over the Northern hemisphere (NH) extratropics, Southern hemisphere (SH) extratropics, tropics, extratropics, and globe, respectively. The corresponding ozone STE trends for 2000–2099 are 3.0%, 4.3%, 0.8%, 3.5%, and 4.7% decade⁻¹. Changes in ozone STEs are dominated by ozone concentration changes, driven by climate‐induced changes and ozone‐depleting substance (ODS) changes. For 1960–2000, small changes in ozone STEs in the NH extratropics are due to a cancellation between effects of climate‐induced changes and ODS increases, while the ODS effect dominates in the SH extratropics, leading to a large ozone STE magnitude decrease. Increased ozone transport from tropical troposphere to stratosphere for 1960–2000 is due to increased tropospheric ozone. A decreased global ozone STE magnitude for 1960–2000 was largely caused by ODS‐induced ozone loss that is partly compensated by climate‐induced ozone changes. For 2000–2099, about two‐thirds of global ozone STE magnitude increases are caused by ozone increases in the extratropical lower stratosphere due to climate‐induced changes. The remaining one‐third is caused by ozone recovery due to the phaseout of ODS. 

Abstract The ERA5 reanalysis with hourly time steps and ∼30 km horizontal resolution resolves a substantially larger fraction of the gravity wave spectrum than its predecessors. Based on a representation of the two-sided zonal wavenumber–frequency spectrum, we show evidence of gravity wave signatures in a suite of atmospheric fields. Cross-spectrum analysis reveals (i) a substantial upward flux of geopotential for both eastward- and westward-propagating waves, (ii) an upward flux of westerly momentum in eastward-propagating waves and easterly momentum in westward-propagating waves, and (iii) anticyclonic rotation of the wind vector with time—all characteristics of vertically propagating gravity and inertio-gravity waves. Two-sided meridional wavenumber–frequency spectra, which are computed along individual meridians and then zonally averaged, exhibit characteristics similar to the spectra computed on latitude circles, indicating that these waves propagate in all directions. The three-dimensional structure of these waves is also documented in composites of the temperature field relative to grid-resolved, wave-induced downwelling events at individual reference grid points along the equator. It is shown that the waves radiate outward and upward relative to the respective reference grid points, and their amplitude decreases rapidly with time. Within the broad continuum of gravity wave phase speeds there are preferred values around ±49 and ±23 m s⁻¹, the former associated with the first baroclinic mode in which the vertical velocity perturbations are of the same sign throughout the depth of the troposphere, and the latter with the second mode in which they are of opposing polarity in the lower and upper troposphere.