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1. Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-023-01091-2  

   Romero-Alvarez, Daniel ; Escobar, Luis_E ; Auguste, Albert_J ; Del_Valle, Sara_Y ; Manore, Carrie_A ( May 2023 , Infectious Diseases of Poverty)

   Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance.

   To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas.

   Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks.

   Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

    

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2. Ecological drivers of dog heartworm transmission in California

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05526-x  

   Couper, Lisa I. ; Mordecai, Erin A. ( October 2022 , Parasites & Vectors)

   Effectively controlling heartworm disease—a major parasitic disease threatening animal health in the US and globally—requires understanding the local ecology of mosquito vectors involved in transmission. However, the key vector species in a given region are often unknown and challenging to identify. Here we investigate (i) the key vector species associated with transmission of the parasite,Dirofilaria immitis, in California and (ii) the climate and land cover drivers of vector presence.

   To identify key mosquito vectors involved in transmission, we incorporated long-term, finely resolved mosquito surveillance data and dog heartworm case data in a statistical modeling approach (fixed-effects regression) that rigorously controls for other unobserved drivers of heartworm cases. We then used a flexible machine learning approach (gradient boosted machines) to identify the climate and land cover variables associated with the presence of each species.

   We found significant, regionally specific, positive associations between dog heartworm cases and the abundance of four vector species:Aedes aegypti(Central California),Ae. albopictus(Southern California),Ae. sierrensis(Central California), andCuliseta incidens(Northern and Central California). The proportion of developed land cover was one of the most important ecological variables predicting the presence or absence of the putative vector species.

   Our results implicate three previously under-recognized vectors of dog heartworm transmission in California and indicate the land cover types in which each putative vector species is commonly found. Efforts to target these species could prioritize surveillance in these land cover types (e.g. near human dwellings in less urbanized settings forAe. albopictusandCs. incidens) but further investigation on the natural infection prevalence and host-biting rates of these species, as well as the other local vectors, is needed.

    

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3. Relative Influence of Land Use, Mosquito Abundance, and Bird Communities in Defining West Nile Virus Infection Rates in Culex Mosquito Populations

   https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13090758  

   Adelman, James S. ; Tokarz, Ryan E. ; Euken, Alec E. ; Field, Eleanor N. ; Russell, Marie C. ; Smith, Ryan C. ( September 2022 , Insects)

   Since its introduction to North America in 1999, the West Nile virus (WNV) has resulted in over 50,000 human cases and 2400 deaths. WNV transmission is maintained via mosquito vectors and avian reservoir hosts, yet mosquito and avian infections are not uniform across ecological landscapes. As a result, it remains unclear whether the ecological communities of the vectors or reservoir hosts are more predictive of zoonotic risk at the microhabitat level. We examined this question in central Iowa, representative of the midwestern United States, across a land use gradient consisting of suburban interfaces with natural and agricultural habitats. At eight sites, we captured mosquito abundance data using New Jersey light traps and monitored bird communities using visual and auditory point count surveys. We found that the mosquito minimum infection rate (MIR) was better predicted by metrics of the mosquito community than metrics of the bird community, where sites with higher proportions of Culex pipiens group mosquitoes during late summer (after late July) showed higher MIRs. Bird community metrics did not significantly influence mosquito MIRs across sites. Together, these data suggest that the microhabitat suitability of Culex vector species is of greater importance than avian community composition in driving WNV infection dynamics at the urban and agricultural interface. 

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4. Multi‐dimensional biodiversity hotspots and the future of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity: A case study of North American rodents

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13050  

   Smiley, Tara M. ; Title, Pascal O. ; Zelditch, Miriam L. ; Terry, Rebecca C. ; Davies, ed., Jonathan ( January 2020 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   We investigate geographic patterns across taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity to test for spatial (in)congruency and identify aggregate diversity hotspots in relationship to present land use and future climate. Simulating extinctions of imperilled species, we demonstrate where losses across diversity dimensions and geography are predicted.

   North America.

   Present day, future.

   Rodentia.

   Using geographic range maps for rodent species, we quantified spatial patterns for 11 dimensions of diversity: taxonomic (species, range weighted), ecological (body size, diet and habitat), phylogenetic (mean, variance, and nearest‐neighbour patristic distances, phylogenetic distance and genus‐to‐species ratio) and phyloendemism. We tested for correlations across dimensions and used spatial residual analyses to illustrate regions of pronounced diversity. We aggregated diversity hotspots in relationship to predictions of land‐use and climate change and recalculated metrics following extinctions of IUCN‐listed imperilled species.

   Topographically complex western North America hosts high diversity across multiple dimensions: phyloendemism and ecological diversity exceed predictions based on taxonomic richness, and phylogenetic variance patterns indicate steep gradients in phylogenetic turnover. An aggregate diversity hotspot emerges in the west, whereas spatial incongruence exists across diversity dimensions at the continental scale. Notably, phylogenetic metrics are uncorrelated with ecological diversity. Diversity hotspots overlap with land‐use and climate change, and extinctions predicted by IUCN status are unevenly distributed across space, phylogeny or ecological groups.

   Comparison of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity patterns for North American rodents clearly shows the multifaceted nature of biodiversity. Testing for geographic patterns and (in)congruency across dimensions of diversity facilitates investigation into underlying ecological and evolutionary processes. The geographic scope of this analysis suggests that several explicit regional challenges face North American rodent fauna in the future. Simultaneous consideration of multi‐dimensional biodiversity allows us to assess what critical functions or evolutionary history we might lose with future extinctions and maximize the potential of our conservation efforts.

    

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5. Niche modelling predicts that soil fungi occupy a precarious climate in boreal forests

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13684  

   Qin, Clara ; Pellitier, Peter T. ; Van Nuland, Michael E. ; Peay, Kabir G. ; Zhu, Kai ( April 2023 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Efforts to predict the responses of soil fungal communities to climate change are hindered by limited information on how fungal niches are distributed across environmental hyperspace. We predict the climate sensitivity of North American soil fungal assemblage composition by modelling the ecological niches of several thousand fungal species.

   One hundred and thirteen sites in the United States and Canada spanning all biomes except tropical rain forest.

   Fungi.

   2011–2018.

   We combine internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences from two continental‐scale sampling networks in North America and cluster them into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 97% similarity. Using climate and soil data, we fit ecological niche models (ENMs) based on logistic ridge regression for all OTUs present in at least 10 sites (n = 8597). To describe the compositional turnover of soil fungal assemblages over climatic gradients, we introduce a novel niche‐based metric of climate sensitivity, the Sørensen climate sensitivity index. Finally, we map climate sensitivity across North America.

   ENMs have a mean out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy of 73.8%, with temperature variables being strong predictors of fungal distributions. Soil fungal climate niches clump together across environmental space, which suggests common physiological limits and predicts abrupt changes in composition with respect to changes in climate. Soil fungi in North American climates are more likely to be limited by cold and dry conditions than by warm and wet conditions, and ectomycorrhizal fungi generally tolerate colder temperatures than saprotrophic fungi. Sørensen climate sensitivity exhibits a multimodal distribution across environmental space, with a peak in climates corresponding to boreal forests.

   The boreal forest occupies an especially precarious region of environmental space for the composition of soil fungal assemblages in North America, as even small degrees of warming could trigger large compositional changes characterized mainly by an influx of warm‐adapted species.

    

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