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Abstract Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are mediators of aerosol‐cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in climate change prediction. Here, we present a machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) model that quantifies CCN from model‐simulated aerosol composition, atmospheric trace gas, and meteorological variables. Comprehensive multi‐campaign airborne measurements, covering varied physicochemical regimes in the troposphere, confirm the validity of and help probe the inner workings of this ML model: revealing for the first time that different ranges of atmospheric aerosol composition and mass correspond to distinct aerosol number size distributions. ML extracts this information, important for accurate quantification of CCN, additionally from both chemistry and meteorology. This can provide a physicochemically explainable, computationally efficient, robust ML pathway in global climate models that only resolve aerosol composition; potentially mitigating the uncertainty of effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions (ERFaci) and improving confidence in assessment of anthropogenic contributions and climate change projections.
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Buffering of Aerosol‐Cloud Adjustments by Coupling Between Radiative Susceptibility and Precipitation Efficiency
Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2019625
- PAR ID:
- 10518691
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 51
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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