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1. Exploring the interplay between soil thermal and hydrological changes and their impact on carbon fluxes in permafrost ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad50ed  

   Briones, Valeria; Jafarov, Elchin E; Genet, Hélène; Rogers, Brendan M; Rutter, Ruth M; Carman, Tobey B; Clein, Joy; Euschkirchen, Eugénie S; Schuur, Edward AG; Watts, Jennifer D; et al (June 2024, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Accelerated warming of the Arctic can affect the global climate system by thawing permafrost and exposing organic carbon in soils to decompose and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We used a process-based biosphere model (DVM-DOS-TEM) designed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical interactions between the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. We varied soil and environmental parameters to assess the impact on cryohydrological and biogeochemical outputs in the model. We analyzed the responses of ecosystem carbon balances to permafrost thaw by running site-level simulations at two long-term tundra ecological monitoring sites in Alaska: Eight Mile Lake (EML) and Imnavait Creek Watershed (IMN), which are characterized by similar tussock tundra vegetation but differing soil drainage conditions and climate. Model outputs showed agreement with field observations at both sites for soil physical properties and ecosystem CO₂fluxes. Model simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) showed an overestimation during the frozen season (higher CO₂emissions) at EML with a mean NEE of 26.98 ± 4.83 gC/m²/month compared to observational mean of 22.01 ± 5.67 gC/m²/month, and during the fall months at IMN, with a modeled mean of 19.21 ± 7.49 gC/m²/month compared to observation mean of 11.9 ± 4.45 gC/m²/month. Our results underscore the importance of representing the impact of soil drainage conditions on the thawing of permafrost soils, particularly poorly drained soils, which will drive the magnitude of carbon released at sites across the high-latitude tundra. These findings can help improve predictions of net carbon releases from thawing permafrost, ultimately contributing to a better understanding of the impact of Arctic warming on the global climate system. 

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2. Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO ₂ Sink and CH ₄ and N ₂ O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top‐Down and Bottom‐Up Methods

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007969  

   Hugelius, G; Ramage, J; Burke, E; Chatterjee, A; Smallman, T L; Aalto, T; Bastos, A; Biasi, C; Canadell, J G; Chandra, N; et al (October 2024, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present‐day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom‐up (data‐driven upscaling and process‐based models) and top‐down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom‐up approaches estimate higher land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom‐up and top‐down approaches show a sink of CO₂in natural ecosystems (bottom‐up: −29 (−709, 455), top‐down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO₂‐C yr⁻¹) and sources of CH₄(bottom‐up: 38 (22, 53), top‐down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH₄‐C yr⁻¹) and N₂O (bottom‐up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top‐down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP‐100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP‐20), the region is a net GHG source because CH₄dominates the total forcing. The net CO₂sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO₂emissions as well as CH₄emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N₂O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process‐based models and the compilation of process‐model ensembles for CH₄and N₂O. Discrepancies between bottom‐up and top‐down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well‐distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques. 

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3. Closing the Winter Gap—Year‐Round Measurements of Soil CO ₂ Emission Sources in Arctic Tundra

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097347  

   Pedron, Shawn A.; Welker, J. M.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Klein, E. S.; Walker, J. C.; Xu, X.; Czimczik, C. I. (March 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Non‐growing season CO₂emissions from Arctic tundra remain a major uncertainty in forecasting climate change consequences of permafrost thaw. We present the first time series of soil and microbial CO₂emissions from a graminoid tundra based on year‐round in situ measurements of the radiocarbon content of soil CO₂(Δ¹⁴CO₂) and of bulk soil C (Δ¹⁴C), microbial activity, and temperature. Combining these data with land‐atmosphere CO₂exchange allows estimates of the proportion and mean age of microbial CO₂emissions year‐round. We observe a seasonal shift in emission sources from fresh carbon during the growing season (August Δ¹⁴CO₂ = 74 ± 4.7‰, 37% ± 3.4% microbial, mean ± se) to increasingly older soil carbon in fall and winter (March Δ¹⁴CO₂ = 22 ± 1.3‰, 47% ± 8% microbial). Thus, rising soil temperatures and emissions during fall and winter are depleting aged soil carbon pools in the active layer and thawing permafrost and further accelerating climate change. 

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4. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z  

   Harper, Anna B.; Powell, Tom; Cox, Peter M.; House, Joanna; Huntingford, Chris; Lenton, Timothy M.; Sitch, Stephen; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Collins, William J.; et al (August 2018, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO₂removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO₂removal than BECCS. 

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5. Arctic Permafrost Thawing Enhances Sulfide Oxidation

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007644  

   Kemeny, Preston Cosslett; Li, Gen K.; Douglas, Madison; Berelson, William; Chadwick, Austin J.; Dalleska, Nathan F.; Lamb, Michael P.; Larsen, William; Magyar, John S.; Rollins, Nick E.; et al (November 2023, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Permafrost degradation is altering biogeochemical processes throughout the Arctic. Thaw‐induced changes in organic matter transformations and mineral weathering reactions are impacting fluxes of inorganic carbon (IC) and alkalinity (ALK) in Arctic rivers. However, the net impact of these changing fluxes on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO₂) is relatively unconstrained. Resolving this uncertainty is important as thaw‐driven changes in the fluxes of IC and ALK could produce feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. Enhanced production of sulfuric acid through sulfide oxidation is particularly poorly quantified despite its potential to remove ALK from the ocean‐atmosphere system and increasepCO₂, producing a positive feedback leading to more warming and permafrost degradation. In this work, we quantified weathering in the Koyukuk River, a major tributary of the Yukon River draining discontinuous permafrost in central Alaska, based on water and sediment samples collected near the village of Huslia in summer 2018. Using measurements of major ion abundances and sulfate () sulfur (³⁴S/³²S) and oxygen (¹⁸O/¹⁶O) isotope ratios, we employed the MEANDIR inversion model to quantify the relative importance of a suite of weathering processes and their net impact onpCO₂. Calculations found that approximately 80% of in mainstem samples derived from sulfide oxidation with the remainder from evaporite dissolution. Moreover,³⁴S/³²S ratios,¹³C/¹²C ratios of dissolved IC, and sulfur X‐ray absorption spectra of mainstem, secondary channel, and floodplain pore fluid and sediment samples revealed modest degrees of microbial sulfate reduction within the floodplain. Weathering fluxes of ALK and IC result in lower values ofpCO₂over timescales shorter than carbonate compensation (∼10⁴ yr) and, for mainstem samples, higher values ofpCO₂over timescales longer than carbonate compensation but shorter than the residence time of marine (∼10⁷ yr). Furthermore, the absolute concentrations of and Mg²⁺in the Koyukuk River, as well as the ratios of and Mg²⁺to other dissolved weathering products, have increased over the past 50 years. Through analogy to similar trends in the Yukon River, we interpret these changes as reflecting enhanced sulfide oxidation due to ongoing exposure of previously frozen sediment and changes in the contributions of shallow and deep flow paths to the active channel. Overall, these findings confirm that sulfide oxidation is a substantial outcome of permafrost degradation and that the sulfur cycle responds to permafrost thaw with a timescale‐dependent feedback on warming. 

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