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1. A hierarchical model for jointly assessing ecological and anthropogenic impacts on animal demography

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13747  

   Riecke, Thomas V; Sedinger, Benjamin S; Arnold, Todd W; Gibson, Dan; Koons, David N; Lohman, Madeleine G; Schaub, Michael; Williams, Perry J; Sedinger, James S (August 2022, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Abstract The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts.The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference.In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43‐year capture–mark–recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallardsAnas platyrhynchosreleased in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters.We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models.Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa. 

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2. Predation risk drives long‐term shifts in migratory behaviour and demography in a large herbivore population

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14022  

   Williams, S.; Hebblewhite, M.; Martin, H.; Meyer, C.; Whittington, J.; Killeen, J.; Berg, J.; MacAulay, K.; Smolko, P.; Merrill, E. H. (November 2023, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Abstract Migration is an adaptive life‐history strategy across taxa that helps individuals maximise fitness by obtaining forage and avoiding predation risk. The mechanisms driving migratory changes are poorly understood, and links between migratory behaviour, space use, and demographic consequences are rare.Here, we use a nearly 20‐year record of individual‐based monitoring of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) to test hypotheses for changing patterns of migration in and adjacent to a large protected area in Banff National Park (BNP), Canada.We test whether bottom‐up (forage quality) or top‐down (predation risk) factors explained trends in (i) the proportion of individuals using 5 different migratory tactics, (ii) differences in survival rates of migratory tactics during migration and whilst on summer ranges, (iii) cause‐specific mortality by wolves and grizzly bears, and (iv) population abundance.We found dramatic shifts in migration consistent with behavioural plasticity in individual choice of annual migratory routes. Shifts were inconsistent with exposure to the bottom‐up benefits of migration. Instead, exposure to landscape gradients in predation risk caused by exploitation outside the protected area drove migratory shifts. Carnivore exploitation outside the protected area led to higher survival rates for female elk remaining resident or migrating outside the protected area.Cause‐specific mortality aligned with exposure to predation risk along migratory routes and summer ranges. Wolf predation risk was higher on migratory routes than summer ranges of montane‐migrant tactics, but wolf predation risk traded‐off with heightened risk from grizzly bears on summer ranges. A novel eastern migrant tactic emerged following a large forest fire that enhanced forage in an area with lower predation risk outside of the protected area.The changes in migratory behaviour translated to population abundance, where abundance of the montane‐migratory tactics declined over time. The presence of diverse migratory life histories maintained a higher total population abundance than would have been the case with only one migratory tactic in the population.Our study demonstrates the complex ways in which migratory populations change over time through behavioural plasticity and associated demographic consequences because of individuals balancing predation risk and forage trade‐offs. 

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3. For everything there is a season: Analysing periodic mortality patterns with the cyclomort r package

   https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13305  

   Gurarie, Eliezer; Thompson, Peter R.; Kelly, Allicia P.; Larter, Nicholas C.; Fagan, William F.; Joly, Kyle; Graham, ed., Laura (October 2019, Methods in Ecology and Evolution)

   Abstract Many important demographic processes are seasonal, including survival. For many species, mortality risk is significantly higher at certain times of the year than at others, whether because resources are scarce, susceptibility to predators or disease is high, or both. Despite the importance of survival modelling in wildlife sciences, no tools are available to estimate the peak, duration and relative importance of these ‘seasons of mortality’.We presentcyclomort, anrpackage that estimates the timing, duration and intensity of any number of mortality seasons with reliable confidence intervals. The package includes a model selection approach to determine the number of mortality seasons and to test whether seasons of mortality vary across discrete grouping factors.We illustrate the periodic hazard function model and workflow of cyclomort with simulated data. We then estimate mortality seasons of two caribouRangifer taranduspopulations that have strikingly different mortality patterns, including different numbers and timing of mortality peaks, and a marked change in one population over time.Thecyclomortpackage was developed to estimate mortality seasons for wildlife, but the package can model any time‐to‐event processes with a periodic component. 

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4. A life‐history spectrum of population responses to simultaneous change in climate and land use

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13919  

   Buderman, Frances E; Devries, James H; Koons, David N (June 2023, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Abstract Climate and land use change are two of the primary threats to global biodiversity; however, each species within a community may respond differently to these facets of global change. Although it is typically assumed that species use the habitat that is advantageous for survival and reproduction, anthropogenic changes to the environment can create ecological traps, making it critical to assess both habitat selection (e.g. where species congregate on the landscape) and the influence of selected habitats on the demographic processes that govern population dynamics.We used a long‐term (1958–2011), large‐scale, multi‐species dataset for waterfowl that spans the United States and Canada to estimate species‐specific responses to climate and land use variables in a landscape that has undergone significant environmental change across space and time. We first estimated the effects of change in climate and land use variables on habitat selection and population dynamics for nine species. We then hypothesized that species‐specific responses to environmental change would scale with life‐history traits, specifically: longevity, nesting phenology and female breeding site fidelity.We observed species‐level heterogeneity in the demographic and habitat selection responses to climate and land use change, which would complicate community‐level habitat management. Our work highlights the importance of multi‐species monitoring and community‐level analysis, even among closely related species.We detected several relationships between life‐history traits, particularly nesting phenology, and species' responses to environmental change. One species, the early‐nesting northern pintail (Anas acuta), was consistently at the extreme end of responses to land use and climate predictors and has been a species of conservation concern since their population began to decline in the 1980s. They, and the blue‐winged teal, also demonstrated a positive habitat selection response to the proportion of cropland on the landscape that simultaneously reduced abundance the following year, indicative of susceptibility to ecological traps.By distilling the diversity of species' responses to environmental change within a community, our methodological approach and findings will help improve predictions of community responses to global change and can inform multi‐species management and conservation plans in dynamic landscapes that are based on simple tenets of life‐history theory. 

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5. Environmental heterogeneity modifies the link between personality and survival in fluctuating small mammal populations

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14037  

   Brehm, Allison M.; Mortelliti, Alessio (December 2023, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Abstract Despite numerous studies examining the fitness consequences of animal personalities, predictions concerning the relationship between personality and survival are not consistent with empirical observations. Theory predicts that individuals who are risky (i.e. bold, active and aggressive) should have higher rates of mortality; however, empirical evidence shows high levels of variation in behaviour–survival relationships in wild populations.We suggest that this mismatch between predictions under theory and empirical observations results from environmental contingencies that drive heterogeneity in selection. This uncertainty may constrain any universal directional relationships between personality traits and survival. Specifically, we hypothesize that spatiotemporal fluctuations in perceived risk that arise from variability in refuge abundance and competitor density alter the relationship between personality traits and survival.In a large‐scale manipulative experiment, we trapped four small mammal species in five subsequent years across six forest stands treated with different management practices in Maine, United States. Stands all occur within the same experimental forest but contain varying amounts of refuge and small mammal densities fluctuate over time and space. We quantified the effects of habitat structure and competitor density on the relationship between personality traits and survival to assess whether directional relationships differed depending on environmental contingencies.In the two most abundant species, deer mice and southern red‐backed voles, risky behaviours (i.e. higher aggression and boldness) predicted apparent monthly survival probability. Mice that were more aggressive (less docile) had higher survival. Voles that were bolder (less timid) had higher survival, but in the risky forest stands only. Additionally, traits associated with stress coping and de‐arousal increased survival probability in both species at high small mammal density but decreased survival at low density. In the two less abundant study species, there was no evidence for an effect of personality traits on survival.Our field experiment provides partial support for our hypothesis: that spatiotemporal fluctuations in refuge abundance and competitor density alter the relationship between personality traits and survival. Our findings also suggest that behaviours associated with stress coping and de‐arousal may be subject to density‐dependent selection and should be further assessed and incorporated into theory. 

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