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Abstract AimClimate‐induced pulse (e.g., hurricanes) and press (e.g., global warming) disturbances represent threats to populations, communities, and the ecosystem services that they provide. We leveraged three decades of annual data on tropical gastropods to quantify the effects of major hurricanes, associated secondary succession, and global warming on abundance, biodiversity, and species composition. LocationLuquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico. MethodsGastropod abundance, biodiversity, and composition were estimated annually for each of 27 years in a tropical montane forest that experienced three major hurricanes (Hugo, Georges, and Maria). Generalized linear mixed‐effects, linear mixed‐effects, and linear models evaluated population‐ and community‐level responses to year, ambient temperature, understorey temperature, hurricane, and time since hurricane. Variation partitioning determined the unique and shared variation in biotic responses associated with temperature, disturbance, and succession. ResultsRather than declining, gastropod abundances generally increased through time, whereas the responses of biodiversity were weak and scale dependent. Hurricanes and associated secondary succession, rather than ambient atmospheric temperature, moulded long‐term trends in abundances and biodiversity. Main conclusionsGlobal warming over the past 30 years has not progressed sufficiently to elicit significant responses by gastropods in the Luquillo Mountains. Rather, effects from pulse disturbances (i.e., hurricanes) and secondary succession currently drive long‐term variation in abundance and biodiversity. Gastropods evince high resilience in this tropical ecosystem. Historical exposure to recurrent hurricanes likely imbued the fauna with broad niches that make them resistant to current levels of global warming. We predict that biotic resiliency will be challenged once changes in temperature exceed interannual and inter‐habitat differences that typify this hurricane‐mediated system, or combine with an increased frequency of hurricanes and droughts to alter associations among environmental characteristics that define the fundamental niches of species. Only then might significant declines in abundance or the appearance of novel communities characterize the gastropod fauna in the Luquillo Mountains.
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Long‐term responses to large‐scale disturbances: spatiotemporal variation in gastropod populations and communities
The Anthropocene is characterized by complex, primarily human‐generated, disturbance regimes that include combinations of long‐term press (e.g. climate change, pollution) and episodic pulse (e.g. cyclonic storms, floods, wildfires, land use change) disturbances. Within any regime, disturbances occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales, creating complex and varied interactions that influence spatiotemporal dynamics in the abundance, distribution and biodiversity of organisms. Moreover, responses to disturbance are context dependent, with the legacies of previous disturbances affecting responses to ensuing perturbations. We use three decades of annual data to evaluate the effects of repeated pulse disturbances and global warming on gastropod populations and communities in Puerto Rico at multiple spatial scales. More specifically, we quantify 1) the relative importance of large‐scale and small‐scale aspects of disturbance on variation in abundance, biodiversity and species composition; and 2) the spatial scales at which populations and communities integrate information in the spatially heterogenous environments created by disturbances. Gastropods do not exhibit consistent decreases in abundance or biodiversity in association with global warming: abundance for many species has increased over time and species richness does not evince a temporal trend. Nonetheless, gastropods are sensitive to hurricane severity, spatial environmental variation and successional trajectories of the flora. In addition, they exhibit context dependent (i.e. legacy effects) responses that are scale dependent. The Puerto Rican biota has evolved in a disturbance‐mediated system. This historical exposure to repeated, severe hurricane‐induced disturbances has imbued the biota with high resistance and resilience to the current disturbance regime, resulting in an ability to persist or thrive under current environmental conditions. Nonetheless, these ecosystems may yet be threatened by worsening direct and indirect effects of climate change. In particular, more frequent and severe hurricanes may prevent the establishment of closed canopy forests, negatively impacting populations and communities that rely on these habitats.
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- PAR ID:
- 10484406
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oikos
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Oikos
- Volume:
- 2023
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0030-1299
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.09605
