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The polar and high latitude regions of the ionosphere are host to complex plasma processes involving Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (MI) coupling, plasma convection, and auroral dynamics. The magnetic field lines from the polar cusp down through the auroral region map out to the magnetosphere and project the footprint of the large-scale convective processes driven by the solar wind onto the ionosphere. This region is also a unique environment where the magnetic field is oriented nearly vertical, resulting in horizontal drifts along closed, localized, convection patterns, and where prolonged periods of darkness during the winter result in the absence of significant photoionization. This set of conditions results in unique ionospheric structures which can set the stage for the generation of the gradient drift instability (GDI). The GDI occurs when the density gradient and ExB plasma drift are in the same direction. The GDI is a source of structuring at density gradients and may give rise to ionospheric irregularities that impact over-the-horizon radars and GPS signals. While the plasma ExB drifts are supplied by magnetospheric convection and MI coupling, sharp density gradients in the polar regions will be present at polar holes. Since the GDI occurs where the density gradient and plasma drift are parallel, the ionospheric irregularities caused by the GDI should occur at the leading edge of the polar hole. If so, the resulting production of small-scale density irregularities may, if the density is high enough, give rise to scintillation of GNSS signals and backscatter on HF radars. In this study, we investigate whether these irregularities can occur at the edges of polar holes as detected by the HF radar scatter. We use the Ionospheric Data Assimilation 4-Dimentional (IDA4D) and Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) models to characterize the high latitude ionospheric density and ExB drift convective structures, respectively, for one of nine polar hole events identified using RISR-N incoherent scatter radar in Forsythe et al [2021]. The combined IDA4D and AMIE assimilative outputs indicate where the GDI could be triggered, e.g., locations where the density gradient and ExB drift velocity have parallel components and the growth rate is smaller than the characteristic time over which the convective pattern changes, in this case, ~1/15 min. The presence of decameter ionospheric plasma irregularities is detected using the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). SuperDARN radars are HF coherent scatter radars. The presence of ionospheric radar returns in regions unstable to GDI grown strongly suggest the GDI is producing decameter scale plasma irregularities. The statistical analyses conducted in the above investigation do not show a clear pattern of enhanced scatter with larger computed GDI growth rates. Further investigation must be conducted before concluding that the GDI does not cause irregularities detectable with HF radar at polar holes.
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Predicting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability Using Machine Learning
Abstract The numerical forecast methods used to predict ionospheric convective plasma instabilities associated with Equatorial Spread‐F(ESF) have limited accuracy and are often computationally expensive. We test whether it is possible to bypass first‐principle numeric simulations and forecast irregularities using machine learning models. The data are obtained from the incoherent scatter radar at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory located in Lima, Peru. Our models map vertical plasma drifts, time, and solar activity to the occurrence and location of clusters of echoes telltale of ionospheric irregularities. Our results show that these models are capable of identifying the predictive power of the tested inputs, obtaining accuracies around 75%.
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- PAR ID:
- 10522853
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 21
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003505
