Global change drivers of land-use/cover change (LUCC) like population dynamics, economic development, and climate change are increasingly important to local sustainability studies, and can only be properly analyzed at fine-scales that capture local biophysical and socio-economic conditions. When sufficiently widespread, local feedback to stresses originating from global drivers can have regional, national, and even global impacts. A multiscale, global-to-local-to-global (GLG) framework is thus needed for comprehensive analyses of LUCC and leakage. The number of GLG-LUCC studies has grown substantially over the past years, but no reviews of this literature and their contributions have been completed so far. In fact, the largest body of literature pertains to global-to-local impacts exclusively, whereas research on local feedback to regional, national, and global spheres remain scarce, and are almost solely undertaken within large modeling institutes. As such, those are rarely readily accessible for modification and extension by outside contributors. This review of the recent GLG-LUCC studies calls for more open-source modeling and availability of data, arguing that the latter is the real constraint to more widespread analyses of GLG-LUCC impacts. Progress in this field will require contributions from hundreds of researchers around the world and from a wide variety of disciplines.
Climate change by its very nature epitomizes the necessity and usefulness of the global-to-local-to-global (GLG) paradigm. It is a global problem with the potential to affect local communities and ecosystems. Accumulation of local impacts and responses to climate change feeds back to regional and global systems creating feedback loops. Understanding these complex impacts and interactions is key to developing more resilient adaptation measures and designing more efficient mitigation policies. To this date, however, GLG interactions have not yet been an integrative part of the decision-support toolkit. The typical approach either traces the impacts of global action on the local level or estimates the implications of local policies at the global scale. The first approach misses cumulative feedback of local responses that can have regional, national or global impacts. In the second case, one undermines a global context of the local actions most likely misrepresenting the complexity of the local decision-making process. Potential interactions across scales are further complicated by the presence of cascading impacts, connected risks and tipping points. Capturing these dimensions is not always a straightforward task and often requires a departure from conventional modeling approaches. In this paper, we review the state-of-the-art approaches to modeling GLG interactions in the context of climate change. We further identify key limitations that drive the lack of GLG coupling cases and discuss what could be done to address these challenges.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1855937
- PAR ID:
- 10526814
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 053002
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract This special issue is the outcome of a workshop held at Purdue University in April 2022. It comprises thematic syntheses of five overarching dimensions of the Global-to-Local-to-Global (GLG) challenge to ensuring the long-term sustainability of land and water resources. These thematic dimensions include: climate change, ecosystems and biodiversity, governance, water resources and cyberinfrastructure. In addition, there are eight applications of GLG analysis to specific land and water sustainability challenges, ranging from environmental stress in the Amazon River Basin to groundwater depletion in the United States. Based on these papers, we conclude that, without fine-scale, local analysis, interventions focusing on land and water sustainability will likely be misguided. But formulating such policies without the broader, national/global context is also problematic – both from the point of view of the global drivers of local sustainability stresses, as well as to capture unanticipated spillovers. In addition, because local and global systems are connected to – and mediated by – meso-scale processes, accounting for key meso-scale phenomena, such as labor market functioning, is critical for characterizing GLG interactions. We also conclude that there is great scope for increasing the complexity of GLG analysis in future work. However, this carries significant risks. Increased complexity can outstrip data and modeling capabilities, slow down research, make results more difficult to understand and interpret, and complicate effective communication with decision-makers and other users of the analyses. We believe that research guidance regarding appropriate complexity is a high priority in the emerging field of Global-Local-Global analysis of sustainability.
-
Males, Jamie (Ed.)more » « less
Understanding the responses of plants, microbes, and their interactions to long-term climate change is essential to identifying the traits, genes, and functions of organisms that maintain ecosystem stability and function of the biosphere. However, many studies investigating organismal responses to climate change are limited in their scope along several key ecological, evolutionary, and environmental axes, creating barriers to broader inference. Broad inference, or the ability to apply and validate findings across these axes, is a vital component of achieving climate preparedness in the future. Breaking barriers to broad inference requires accurate cross-ecosystem interpretability and the identification of reliable frameworks for how these responses will manifest. Current approaches have generated a valuable, yet sometimes contradictory or context dependent, understanding of responses to climate change factors from the organismal- to ecosystem-level. In this synthesis, we use plants, soil microbial communities, and their interactions as examples to identify five major barriers to broad inference and resultant target research areas. We also explain risks associated with disregarding these barriers to broad inference and potential approaches to overcoming them. Developing and funding experimental frameworks that integrate basic ecological and evolutionary principles and are designed to capture broad inference across levels of organization is necessary to further our understanding of climate change on large scales.
-
more » « less
Abstract Covering approximately 40% of land surfaces, grasslands provide critical ecosystem services that rely on soil organisms. However, the global determinants of soil biodiversity and functioning remain underexplored. In this study, we investigate the drivers of soil microbial and detritivore activity in grasslands across a wide range of climatic conditions on five continents. We apply standardized treatments of nutrient addition and herbivore reduction, allowing us to disentangle the regional and local drivers of soil organism activity. We use structural equation modeling to assess the direct and indirect effects of local and regional drivers on soil biological activities. Microbial and detritivore activities are positively correlated across global grasslands. These correlations are shaped more by global climatic factors than by local treatments, with annual precipitation and soil water content explaining the majority of the variation. Nutrient addition tends to reduce microbial activity by enhancing plant growth, while herbivore reduction typically increases microbial and detritivore activity through increased soil moisture. Our findings emphasize soil moisture as a key driver of soil biological activity, highlighting the potential impacts of climate change, altered grazing pressure, and eutrophication on nutrient cycling and decomposition within grassland ecosystems.
-
more » « less
Abstract Climate change is impacting global crop productivity, and agricultural land suitability is predicted to significantly shift in the future. Responses to changing conditions and increasing yield variability can range from altered management strategies to outright land use conversions that may have significant environmental and socioeconomic ramifications. However, the extent to which agricultural land use changes in response to variations in climate is unclear at larger scales. Improved understanding of these dynamics is important since land use changes will have consequences not only for food security but also for ecosystem health, biodiversity, carbon storage, and regional and global climate. In this study, we combine land use products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with climate reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 to analyze correspondence between changes in cropland and changes in temperature and water availability from 2001 to 2018. While climate trends explained little of the variability in land cover changes, increasing temperature, extreme heat days, potential evaporation, and drought severity were associated with higher levels of cropland loss. These patterns were strongest in regions with more cropland change, and generally reflected underlying climate suitability—they were amplified in hotter and drier regions, and reversed direction in cooler and wetter regions. At national scales, climate response patterns varied significantly, reflecting the importance of socioeconomic, political, and geographic factors, as well as differences in adaptation strategies. This global-scale analysis does not attempt to explain local mechanisms of change but identifies climate-cropland patterns that exist in aggregate and may be hard to perceive at local scales. It is intended to supplement regional studies, providing further context for locally-observed phenomena and highlighting patterns that require further analysis.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc95c
