An official website of the United States government
Accurate prediction of citywide crowd activity levels (CALs),i.e., the numbers of participants of citywide crowd activities under different venue categories at certain time and locations, is essential for the city management, the personal service applications, and the entrepreneurs in commercial strategic planning. Existing studies have not thoroughly taken into account the complex spatial and temporal interactions among different categories of CALs and their extreme occurrences, leading to lowered adaptivity and accuracy of their models. To address above concerns, we have proposedIE-CALP, a novel spatio-temporalInteractive attention-based andExtreme-aware model forCrowdActivityLevelPrediction. The tasks ofIE-CALPconsist of(a)forecasting the spatial distributions of various CALs at different city regions (spatial CALs), and(b)predicting the number of participants per category of the CALs (categorical CALs). To realize above, we have designed a novel spatial CAL-POI interaction-attentive learning component inIE-CALPto model the spatial interactions across different CAL categories, as well as those among the spatial urban regions and CALs. In addition,IE-CALPincorporate the multi-level trends (e.g., daily and weekly levels of temporal granularity) of CALs through a multi-level temporal feature learning component. Furthermore, to enhance the model adaptivity to extreme CALs (e.g., during extreme urban events or weather conditions), we further take into account theextreme value theoryand model the impacts of historical CALs upon the occurrences of extreme CALs. Extensive experiments upon a total of 738,715 CAL records and 246,660 POIs in New York City (NYC), Los Angeles (LA), and Tokyo have further validated the accuracy, adaptivity, and effectiveness ofIE-CALP’s interaction-attentive and extreme-aware CAL predictions.
more »
« less
STICAP : Spatio-temporal Interactive Attention for Citywide Crowd Activity Prediction
Accurate citywide crowd activity prediction (CAP) can enable proactive crowd mobility management and timely responses to urban events, which has become increasingly important for a myriad of smart city planning and management purposes. However, complex correlations across the crowd activities, spatial and temporal urban environment features and theirinteractivedependencies, and relevant external factors (e.g., weather conditions) make it highly challenging to predict crowd activities accurately in terms of different venue categories (for instance, venues related to dining, services, and residence) and varying degrees (e.g., daytime and nighttime). To address the above concerns, we proposeSTICAP, a citywide spatio-temporal interactive crowd activity prediction approach. In particular,STICAPtakes in the location-based social network check-in data (e.g., from Foursquare/Gowalla) as the model inputs and forecasts the crowd activity within each time step for each venue category. Furthermore, we have integrated multiple levels of temporal discretization to interactively capture the relations with historical data. Then, three parallelResidual Spatial Attention Networks(RSAN) in theSpatial Attention Componentexploit the hourly, daily, and weekly spatial features of crowd activities, which are further fused and processed by theTemporal Attention Componentforinteractive CAP. Along with other external factors such as weather conditions and holidays,STICAPadaptively and accurately forecasts the final crowd activities per venue category, enabling potential activity recommendation and other smart city applications. Extensive experimental studies based on three different real-world crowd activity datasets have demonstrated that our proposedSTICAPoutperforms the baseline and state-of-the-art algorithms in CAP accuracy, with an average error reduction of 35.02%.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2118102
- PAR ID:
- 10532289
- Publisher / Repository:
- ACM
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2374-0353
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 22
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
In the growing era of smart cities, data-driven decision-making is pivotal for urban planners and policymakers. Crowd-sourced data is a cost-effective means to collect this information, enabling more efficient urban management. However, ensuring data accuracy and establishing trustworthy “Ground Truth” in smart city sensor data presents unique challenges.Our study contributes by documenting the intricacies and obstacles associated with overcoming MAC randomization, sensor unpredictability, unreliable signal strength, and Wi-Fi probing inconsistencies in smart city data cleaning.We establish a framework for three different types of experiments: Counting, Proximity, and Sensor Range. Our novel approach incorporates the spatial layout of the city, an aspect often overlooked. We propose a database structure and metrics to enhance reproducibility and trust in the system.By presenting our findings, we aim to facilitate a deeper understanding of the nuances involved in handling sensor data, ultimately paving the way for more accurate and meaningful data-driven decision-making in smart cities.more » « less
-
Abstract—We present SaSTL—a novel Spatial Aggregation Signal Temporal Logic—for the efficient runtime monitoring of safety and performance requirements in smart cities. We first describe a study of over 1,000 smart city requirements, some of which can not be specified using existing logic such as Signal Temporal Logic (STL) and its variants. To tackle this limitation, we develop two new logical operators in SaSTL to augment STL for expressing spatial aggregation and spatial counting characteristics that are commonly found in real city requirements. We also develop efficient monitoring algorithms that can check a SaSTL requirement in parallel over multiple data streams (e.g., generated by multiple sensors distributed spatially in a city).We evaluate our SaSTL monitor by applying to two case studies with large-scale real city sensing data (e.g., up to 10,000 sensors in one requirement). The results show that SaSTL has a much higher coverage expressiveness than other spatial-temporal logics, and with a significant reduction of computation time for monitoring requirements. We also demonstrate that the SaSTL monitor can help improve the safety and performance of smart cities via simulated experiments.more » « less
-
In this paper, we propose MetaMobi, a novel spatio-temporal multi-dots connectivity-aware modeling and Meta model update approach for crowd Mobility learning. MetaMobi analyzes real-world Wi-Fi association data collected from our campus wireless infrastructure, with the goal towards enabling a smart connected campus. Specifically, MetaMobi aims at addressing the following two major challenges with existing crowd mobility sensing system designs: (a) how to handle the spatially, temporally, and contextually varying features in large-scale human crowd mobility distributions; and (b) how to adapt to the impacts of such crowd mobility patterns as well as the dynamic changes in crowd sensing infrastructures. To handle the first challenge, we design a novel multi-dots connectivity-aware learning approach, which jointly learns the crowd flow time series of multiple buildings with fusion of spatial graph connectivities and temporal attention mechanisms. Furthermore, to overcome the adaptivity issues due to changes in the crowd sensing infrastructures (e.g., installation of new ac- cess points), we further design a novel meta model update approach with Bernoulli dropout, which mitigates the over- fitting behaviors of the model given few-shot distributions of new crowd mobility datasets. Extensive experimental evaluations based on the real-world campus wireless dataset (including over 76 million Wi-Fi association and disassociation records) demonstrate the accuracy, effectiveness, and adaptivity of MetaMobi in forecasting the campus crowd flows, with 30% higher accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art approaches.more » « less
-
Abstract Flood nowcasting refers to near-future prediction of flood status as an extreme weather event unfolds to enhance situational awareness. The objective of this study was to adopt and test a novel structured deep-learning model for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework including an attention-based spatial–temporal graph convolution network (ASTGCN) model and different streams of data that are collected in real-time, preprocessed, and fed into the model to consider spatial and temporal information and dependencies that improve flood nowcasting. The novelty of the computational modeling framework is threefold: first, the model is capable of considering spatial and temporal dependencies in inundation propagation thanks to the spatial and temporal graph convolutional modules; second, it enables capturing the influence of heterogeneous temporal data streams that can signal flooding status, including physics-based features (e.g., rainfall intensity and water elevation) and human-sensed data (e.g., residents’ flood reports and fluctuations of human activity) on flood nowcasting. Third, its attention mechanism enables the model to direct its focus to the most influential features that vary dynamically and influence the flood nowcasting. We show the application of the modeling framework in the context of Harris County, Texas, as the study area and 2017 Hurricane Harvey as the flood event. Three categories of features are used for nowcasting the extent of flood inundation in different census tracts: (i) static features that capture spatial characteristics of various locations and influence their flood status similarity, (ii) physics-based dynamic features that capture changes in hydrodynamic variables, and (iii) heterogeneous human-sensed dynamic features that capture various aspects of residents’ activities that can provide information regarding flood status. Results indicate that the ASTGCN model provides superior performance for nowcasting of urban flood inundation at the census-tract level, with precision 0.808 and recall 0.891, which shows the model performs better compared with other state-of-the-art models. Moreover, ASTGCN model performance improves when heterogeneous dynamic features are added into the model that solely relies on physics-based features, which demonstrates the promise of using heterogenous human-sensed data for flood nowcasting. Given the results of the comparisons of the models, the proposed modeling framework has the potential to be more investigated when more data of historical events are available in order to develop a predictive tool to provide community responders with an enhanced prediction of the flood inundation during urban flood.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3603375
