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Extreme heat events induced by climate change present a growing risk to transit passenger comfort and health. To reduce exposure, agencies may consider changes to schedules that reduce headways on heavily trafficked bus routes serving vulnerable populations. This paper develops a schedule optimization model to minimize heat exposure and applies it to local bus services in Phoenix, Arizona, using agent-based simulation to inform travel demand and rider characteristics. Rerouting as little as 10% of a fleet is found to reduce network-wide exposure by as much as 35% when operating at maximum fleet capacity. Outcome improvements are notably characterized by diminishing returns, owing to skewed ridership and the inverse relationship between fleet size and passenger wait time. Access to spare vehicles can also ensure significant reductions in exposure, especially under the most extreme temperatures. Rerouting, therefore, presents a low-cost, adaptable resilience strategy to protect riders from extreme heat exposure.
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Congestive mode-switching and economies of scale on a bus route
This paper introduces a type of circular causation called Congestive Mode-Switching (CMS) that may arise when an increase in congestion penalizes transit relative to driving. In turn, rising congestion persuades some transit riders to drive, which exacerbates congestion further, and so on. This circular causation can beget multiple equilibria with different levels of congestion and transit ridership. The paper explores this logic with a static model of a bus route. When the bus fleet size is fixed, CMS applies because congestion raises the bus cycle time and thus lowers bus frequency, resulting in higher wait times. When the fleet size depends on bus ridership, CMS is joined by economies of scale as a second source of circular causation. We derive the system’s equilibria using a static model in the vein of Walters (1961), which permits us to graphically characterize equilibria in useful ways. The comparative statics of a road improvement show how feedback alters first-order effects. A Downs-Thomson paradox is not possible, because a road improvement aids buses even more than cars. Continuous-time stability analysis shows that multiple equilibria may be stable.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2052512
- PAR ID:
- 10538980
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
- Volume:
- 183
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 0191-2615
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 102930
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.102930
