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1. Regional Inversion Shows Promise in Capturing Extreme‐Event‐Driven CO ₂ Flux Anomalies but Is Limited by Atmospheric CO ₂ Observational Coverage

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040006  

   Byrne, B; Liu, J; Bowman, K W; Yin, Y; Yun, J; Ferreira, G D; Ogle, S M; Baskaran, L; He, L; Li, X; et al (March 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Abstract Extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, with poorly understood implications for carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. A better understanding will critically depend on accurate and precise quantification of ecosystems responses to these events. Taking the 2019 US Midwest floods as a case study, we investigate current capabilities for tracking regional flux anomalies with “top‐down” inversion analyses that assimilate atmospheric CO₂observations. For this analysis, we develop a regionally nested version of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System‐Flux system for North America (CMS‐Flux‐NA) that allows high resolution atmospheric transport (0.5° × 0.625°). Relative to a 2018 baseline, we find the 2019 US Midwest growing season net carbon uptake is reduced by 11–57 TgC (3%–16%, range across assimilated CO₂data sets). These estimates are found to be consistent with independent “bottom‐up” estimates of carbon uptake based on vegetation remote sensing (15–78 TgC). We then investigate current limitations in tracking regional carbon budgets using “top‐down” methods. In a set of observing system simulation experiments, we show that the ability of atmospheric CO₂inversions to capture regional carbon flux anomalies is still limited by observational coverage gaps for both in situ and satellite observations. Future space‐based missions that allow for daily observational coverage across North America would largely mitigate these observational gaps, allowing for improved top‐down estimates of ecosystem responses to extreme climate events. 

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2. Scale‐Dependent Drivers of Air‐Sea CO ₂ Flux Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111911  

   Fay, Amanda R; Carroll, Dustin; McKinley, Galen A; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Zhang, Hong (October 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract In climate studies, it is crucial to distinguish between changes caused by natural variability and those resulting from external forcing. Here we use a suite of numerical experiments based on the ECCO‐Darwin ocean biogeochemistry model to separate the impact of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) growth rate and climate on the ocean carbon sink — with a goal of disentangling the space‐time variability of the dominant drivers. When globally integrated, the variable atmospheric growth rate and climate exhibit similar magnitude impacts on ocean carbon uptake. At local scales, interannual variability in air‐sea CO₂flux is dominated by climate. The implications of our study for real‐world ocean observing systems are clear: in order to detect future changes in the ocean sink due to slowing atmospheric CO₂growth rates, better observing systems and constraints on climate‐driven ocean variability are required. 

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3. Goose grubbing and warming suppress summer net ecosystem CO₂ uptake differentially across high‐Arctic tundra habitats

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4498  

   Petit_Bon, Matteo; Beard, Karen H; Bråthen, Kari Anne; Lee, Hanna; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S (January 2025, Ecology)

   Abstract Environmental changes, such as climate warming and higher herbivory pressure, are altering the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems; yet, how these drivers modify the carbon balance among different habitats remains uncertain. This hampers our ability to predict changes in the carbon sink strength of tundra ecosystems. We investigated how spring goose grubbing and summer warming—two key environmental‐change drivers in the Arctic—alter CO₂fluxes in three tundra habitats varying in soil moisture and plant‐community composition. In a full‐factorial experiment in high‐Arctic Svalbard, we simulated grubbing and warming over two years and determined summer net ecosystem exchange (NEE) alongside its components: gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). After two years, we found net CO₂uptake to be suppressed by both drivers depending on habitat. CO₂uptake was reduced by warming in mesic habitats, by warming and grubbing in moist habitats, and by grubbing in wet habitats. In mesic habitats, warming stimulated ER (+75%) more than GEP (+30%), leading to a 7.5‐fold increase in their CO₂source strength. In moist habitats, grubbing decreased GEP and ER by ~55%, while warming increased them by ~35%, with no changes in summer‐long NEE. Nevertheless, grubbing offset peak summer CO₂uptake and warming led to a twofold increase in late summer CO₂source strength. In wet habitats, grubbing reduced GEP (−40%) more than ER (−30%), weakening their CO₂sink strength by 70%. One‐year CO₂‐flux responses were similar to two‐year responses, and the effect of simulated grubbing was consistent with that of natural grubbing. CO₂‐flux rates were positively related to aboveground net primary productivity and temperature. Net ecosystem CO₂uptake started occurring above ~70% soil moisture content, primarily due to a decline in ER. Herein, we reveal that key environmental‐change drivers—goose grubbing by decreasing GEP more than ER and warming by enhancing ER more than GEP—consistently suppress net tundra CO₂uptake, although their relative strength differs among habitats. By identifying how and where grubbing and higher temperatures alter CO₂fluxes across the heterogeneous Arctic landscape, our results have implications for predicting the tundra carbon balance under increasing numbers of geese in a warmer Arctic. 

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4. Water Stress Dominates 21st‐Century Tropical Land Carbon Uptake

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007702  

   Levine, Paul A.; Bloom, A. Anthony; Bowman, Kevin W.; Reager, John T.; Worden, John R.; Liu, Junjie; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Meyer, Victoria; Konings, Alexandra G.; Longo, Marcos (December 2023, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Water stress regulates land‐atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchanges in the tropics; however, its role remains poorly characterized due to the confounding roles of radiation, temperature and canopy dynamics. In particular, uncertainty stems from the relative roles of plant‐available water (supply) and atmospheric water vapor deficit (demand) as mechanistic drivers of photosynthetic carbon (C) uptake variability. Using satellite measurements of gravity, CO₂and fluorescence to constrain a mechanistic carbon‐water cycle model from 2001 to 2018, we found that the interannual variability (IAV) of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake was 52% greater than the combined effects of other factors. Surprisingly, the dominance of water stress on C uptake IAV was greater in the wet tropics (94%) than in the dry tropics (26%). Plant‐available water supply and atmospheric demand both contributed to the IAV of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake across the tropics, but the IAV of demand effects was 21% greater than the IAV of supply effects (33% greater in the wet tropics and 6% greater in the dry tropics). We found that the IAV of water stress on C uptake was 24% greater than the IAV of the combination of other factors in the net land‐atmosphere C sink in the whole tropics, 26% greater in the wet tropics, and 7% greater in the dry tropics. Given the recent trends in tropical precipitation and atmospheric humidity, our findings indicate that water stress——from both supply and demand——will likely dominate the climate response of land C sink across tropical ecosystems in the coming decades. 

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5. Recent Trends and Variability in the Oceanic Storage of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007677  

   Keppler, L; Landschützer, P; Lauvset, S K; Gruber, N (May 2023, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Several methods have been developed to quantify the oceanic accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) in response to rising atmospheric CO₂. Yet, we still lack a corresponding estimate of the changes in the total oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). In addition to the increase in anthropogenic CO₂, changes in DIC also include alterations of natural CO₂. Once integrated globally, changes in DIC reflect the net oceanic sink for atmospheric CO₂, complementary to estimates of the air‐sea CO₂exchange based on surface measurements. Here, we extend the MOBO‐DIC machine learning approach by Keppler et al. (2020a,https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.nodc%3A0221526) to estimate global monthly fields of DIC at 1° resolution over the top 1,500 m from 2004 through 2019. We find that over these 16 years and extrapolated to cover the whole global ocean down to 4,000 m, the oceanic DIC pool increased close to linearly at an average rate of 3.2 ± 0.7 Pg C yr⁻¹. This trend is statistically indistinguishable from current estimates of the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂over the same period. Thus, our study implies no detectable net loss or gain of natural CO₂by the ocean, albeit the large uncertainties could be masking it. Our reconstructions suggest substantial internal redistributions of natural oceanic CO₂, with a shift from the midlatitudes to the tropics and from the surface to below ∼200 m. Such redistributions correspond with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The interannual variability of DIC is strongest in the tropical Western Pacific, consistent with the El Nio Southern Oscillation. 

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