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1. Understanding Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Urban Flooding Using Municipal Reports

   https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70028  

   DeSousa, Stacie; Bhaskar, Aditi S; Kelleher, Christa; Livneh, Ben (December 2024, Hydrological Processes)

   ABSTRACT Urban flooding is an increasing threat to cities and resident well‐being. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) typically reports losses attributed to flooding which result from a stream overtopping its banks, discounting impacts of higher frequency, lower impact flooding that occurs when precipitation intensity exceeds the capacity of a drainage system. Despite its importance, the drivers of street flooding can often be difficult to identify, given street flooding data scarcity and the multitude of storm, built environment, and social factors involved. To address this knowledge gap, this study uses 922 street flooding reports to the city in Denver, Colorado, USA from 2000 to 2019 in coordination with rain gauge network data and Census tract information to improve understanding of spatiotemporal drivers of urban flooding. An initial threshold analysis using rainfall intensity to predict street flooding had performance close to random chance, which led us to investigate other drivers. A logistic regression describing the probability of a storm leading to a flood report showed the strongest predictors of urban flooding were, in descending order, maximum 5‐min rainfall intensity, population density, storm depth, storm duration, median tract income, and stormwater pipe density. The logistic regression also showed that rainfall intensity and population density are nearly as important in determining the likelihood of a flood report incidence. In addition, topographic wetness index values at locations of flooding reports were higher than randomly selected points. A linear regression predicting the number of reports per area identified percent impervious as the single most important predictor. Our methodologies can be used to better inform urban flood awareness, response, and mitigation and are applicable to any city with flood reports and spatial precipitation data. 

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2. Dynamic Modeling of Inland Flooding and Storm Surge on Coastal Cities under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts in Norfolk, Virginia USA as a Case Study

   https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12060224  

   Shen, Yawen; Tahvildari, Navid; Morsy, Mohamed M.; Huxley, Chris; Chen, T. Donna; Goodall, Jonathan Lee (June 2022, Geosciences)

   Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable of resolving urban drainage infrastructure within the city. The modeling approach is demonstrated in quantifying the impact of possible future climate scenarios on transportation infrastructure within Norfolk, Virginia, USA. A series of combined storm events are modeled for current (2020) and projected future (2070) climate scenarios. The results show that pluvial flooding causes a larger interruption to the transportation network compared to tidal flooding under current climate conditions. By 2070, however, tidal flooding will be the dominant flooding mechanism with even nuisance flooding expected to happen daily due to SLR. In 2070, nuisance flooding is expected to cause a 4.6% total link close time (TLC), which is more than two times that of a 50-year storm surge (1.8% TLC) in 2020. The coupled flood model was compared with a widely used but physically simplistic bathtub method to assess the difference resulting from the more complex modeling presented in this study. The results show that the bathtub method overestimated the flooded area near the shoreline by 9.5% and 3.1% for a 10-year storm surge event in 2020 and 2070, respectively, but underestimated the flooded area in the inland region by 9.0% and 4.0% for the same events. The findings demonstrate the benefit of sophisticated modeling methods compared to more simplistic bathtub approaches, in climate adaptive planning and policy in coastal communities. 

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3. Integrating the Spatial Configurations of Green and Gray Infrastructure in Urban Stormwater Networks

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034796  

   Chen, Xiating; Davitt‐Liu, Indigo; Erickson, Andrew J.; Feng, Xue (December 2023, Water Resources Research)

   Abstract Green infrastructure (GI) practices improve stormwater quality and reduce urban flooding, but as urban hydrology is highly controlled by its associated gray infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipe network), GI's watershed‐scale performance depends on its siting within its associated watershed. Although many stormwater practitioners have begun considering GI's spatial configuration within a larger watershed, few approaches allow for flexible scenario exploration, which can untangle GI's interaction with gray infrastructure network and assess its effects on watershed hydrology. To address the gap in integrated gray‐green infrastructure planning, we used an exploratory model to examine gray‐green infrastructure performance using synthetic stormwater networks with varying degrees of flow path meandering, informed by analysis on stormwater networks from the Minneapolis‐St. Paul Metropolitan Area, MN, USA. Superimposed with different coverage and placements of GI (e.g., bioretention cells), these gray‐green stormwater networks are then subjected to different rainfall intensities within Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model to simulate their hydrological benefits (e.g., peak flow reduction, flood reduction). Although only limited choices of green and gray infrastructure were explored, the results show that the gray infrastructure's spatial configuration can introduce tradeoffs between increased peak flow and increased flooding, and further interacts with GI coverage and placement to reduce peak flow and flooding at low rainfall intensity. However, as rainfall intensifies, GI ceases to reduce peak flow. For integrated gray‐green infrastructure planning, our results suggest that physical constraints of the stormwater networks and the range of rainfall intensities must be considered when implementing GI. 

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4. Projecting Compound Flood Hazard Under Climate Change With Physical Models and Joint Probability Methods

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003097  

   Gori, Avantika; Lin, Ning (December 2022, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Accurate delineation of compound flood hazard requires joint simulation of rainfall‐runoff and storm surges within high‐resolution flood models, which may be computationally expensive. There is a need for supplementing physical models with efficient, probabilistic methodologies for compound flood hazard assessment that can be applied under a range of climate and environment conditions. Here we propose an extension to the joint probability optimal sampling method (JPM‐OS), which has been widely used for storm surge assessment, and apply it for rainfall‐surge compound hazard assessment under climate change at the catchment‐scale. We utilize thousands of synthetic tropical cyclones (TCs) and physics‐based models to characterize storm surge and rainfall hazards at the coast. Then we implement a Bayesian quadrature optimization approach (JPM‐OS‐BQ) to select a small number (∼100) of storms, which are simulated within a high‐resolution flood model to characterize the compound flood hazard. We show that the limited JPM‐OS‐BQ simulations can capture historical flood return levels within 0.25 m compared to a high‐fidelity Monte Carlo approach. We find that the combined impact of 2100 sea‐level rise (SLR) and TC climatology changes on flood hazard change in the Cape Fear Estuary, NC will increase the 100‐year flood extent by 27% and increase inundation volume by 62%. Moreover, we show that probabilistic incorporation of SLR in the JPM‐OS‐BQ framework leads to different 100‐year flood maps compared to using a single mean SLR projection. Our framework can be applied to catchments across the United States Atlantic and Gulf coasts under a variety of climate and environment scenarios. 

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5. Flood risk behaviors of United States riverine metropolitan areas are driven by local hydrology and shaped by race

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016839118  

   Knighton, James; Hondula, Kelly; Sharkus, Cielo; Guzman, Christian; Elliott, Rebecca (March 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Flooding risk results from complex interactions between hydrological hazards (e.g., riverine inundation during periods of heavy rainfall), exposure, vulnerability (e.g., the potential for structural damage or loss of life), and resilience (how well we recover, learn from, and adapt to past floods). Building on recent coupled conceptualizations of these complex interactions, we characterize human–flood interactions (collective memory and risk-enduring attitude) at a more comprehensive scale than has been attempted to date across 50 US metropolitan statistical areas with a sociohydrologic (SH) model calibrated with accessible local data (historical records of annual peak streamflow, flood insurance loss claims, active insurance policy records, and population density). A cluster analysis on calibrated SH model parameter sets for metropolitan areas identified two dominant behaviors: 1) “risk-enduring” cities with lower flooding defenses and longer memory of past flood loss events and 2) “risk-averse” cities with higher flooding defenses and reduced memory of past flooding. These divergent behaviors correlated with differences in local stream flashiness indices (i.e., the frequency and rapidity of daily changes in streamflow), maximum dam heights, and the proportion of White to non-White residents in US metropolitan areas. Risk-averse cities tended to exist within regions characterized by flashier streamflow conditions, larger dams, and larger proportions of White residents. Our research supports the development of SH models in urban metropolitan areas and the design of risk management strategies that consider both demographically heterogeneous populations, changing flood defenses, and temporal changes in community risk perceptions and tolerance. 

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