Abstract Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade−1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m−3decade−1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade−1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade−1to + 0.65 °C decade−1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.
more »
« less
Long-term water temperature changes in Seneca Lake and their nexus to climate change and human activities
Abstract While many freshwater lakes have witnessed a rapid increase in surface water temperatures, the trends in subsurface water temperatures are not well-understood. This study explored the long-term subsurface water temperature change and its connection to climate change and human activities in Seneca Lake. Utilizing linear regression and the Theil-Sen estimator, the study identified a significant monotonic temperature trend in the subsurface water. Principal component and contribution analyses revealed that climate changes, particularly air warming, were more critical in explaining water temperature patterns, and human activities such as land cover change could exacerbate the impact of climate change. Using remotely sensed surface water temperature data, the study found a significant positive correlation between thermal pollution and water temperatures in the northern region of the lake, and after incorporating control variables, the regression analysis suggested that the adverse effects of thermal pollution are primarily confined to the area adjacent to the power plant. This research can offer fresh insights into lake ecology improvement and management strategies.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2006633
- PAR ID:
- 10544799
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Science
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Communications
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 2515-7620
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 111003
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Freshwater ecosystems provide vital services, yet are facing increasing risks from global change. In particular, lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. Numerous sources of uncertainty affect projections of future lake conditions but few are quantified, limiting the use of lake modeling projections as management tools. To quantify and evaluate the effects of two potentially important sources of uncertainty, lake model selection uncertainty and climate model selection uncertainty, we developed ensemble projections of lake thermal dynamics for a dimictic lake in New Hampshire, USA (Lake Sunapee). Our ensemble projections used four different climate models as inputs to five vertical one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic lake models under three different climate change scenarios to simulate thermal metrics from 2006 to 2099. We found that almost all the lake thermal metrics modeled (surface water temperature, bottom water temperature, Schmidt stability, stratification duration, and ice cover, but not thermocline depth) are projected to change over the next century. Importantly, we found that the dominant source of uncertainty varied among the thermal metrics, as thermal metrics associated with the surface waters (surface water temperature, total ice duration) were driven primarily by climate model selection uncertainty, while metrics associated with deeper depths (bottom water temperature, stratification duration) were dominated by lake model selection uncertainty. Consequently, our results indicate that researchers generating projections of lake bottom water metrics should prioritize including multiple lake models for best capturing projection uncertainty, while those focusing on lake surface metrics should prioritize including multiple climate models. Overall, our ensemble modeling study reveals important information on how climate change will affect lake thermal properties, and also provides some of the first analyses on how climate model selection uncertainty and lake model selection uncertainty interact to affect projections of future lake dynamics.more » « less
-
Abstract Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT Ecosystem states are often influenced by both concurrent and antecedent environmental drivers. However, the relative importance of antecedent conditions varies within and among ecosystems. Here, we analysed long‐term depth‐profile data from 382 temperate lakes across 10 countries to assess how differential changes in spring versus summer air temperature mediate summer water quality. We found that summer bottom‐water conditions were more associated with spring air temperatures, while surface‐water conditions were more associated with summer air temperatures. The relative influence of spring versus summer air temperature was mediated by lake morphometry, stratification and latitude. Across these lakes, summer air temperatures have increased more rapidly than spring air temperatures, potentially contributing to a growing thermal difference between surface and bottom waters (median = +0.5°C/decade). Consequently, our results demonstrate that predicting the ecological impacts of climate change may require considering spatial differences in ecological memory within ecosystems.more » « less
-
A database of in situ water temperatures for large inland lakes across the coterminous United StatesAbstract Water temperature dynamics in large inland lakes are interrelated with internal lake physics, ecosystem function, and adjacent land surface meteorology and climatology. Models for simulating and forecasting lake temperatures often rely on remote sensing andin situdata for validation.In situmonitoring platforms have the benefit of providing relatively precise measurements at multiple lake depths, but are often sparser (temporally and spatially) than remote sensing data. Here, we address the challenge of synthesizingin situlake temperature data by creating a standardized database of near-surface and subsurface measurements from 134 sites across 29 large North American lakes, with the primary goal of supporting an ongoing lake model validation study. We utilize data sources ranging from federal agency repositories to local monitoring group samples, with a collective historical record spanning January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2022. Our database has direct utility for validating simulations and forecasts from operational numerical weather prediction systems in large lakes whose extensive surface area may significantly influence nearby weather and climate patterns.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

