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Despite the increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires around the world, little research has examined households’ expectations of evacuation logistics and evacuation time estimate (ETE) components during such rapid-onset disasters. To address this gap, this study analyzes data from 152 household responses affected by the devastating 2018 wildfire in Mati, Greece where the second-deadliest wildfire of the 21st century took place. The questionnaire measured residents’ expectations of how they would respond to a future wildfire. This includes the number of vehicles they would take, their evacuation destination and route choices, and their expected evacuation preparation and travel times. Explanatory variables include risk perceptions, wildfire preparedness, wildfire experience, and demographic characteristics. The univariate results reveal some similarities to, but also some differences from, expected evacuation logistics and ETE components in other natural hazards. Moreover, correlation and regression analyses show that expected evacuation logistics and ETE components are primarily related to wildfire preparedness actions. Comparison of this study’s results with other rapid onset events such as tsunamis and hazardous material incidents, as well as longer onset events such as hurricanes, sheds light on household responses to wildfires. Emergency managers can use the similarities in results across studies to better prepare for wildfire evacuations.
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Exploring Wildfire Evacuation Strategies for Diverse Communities
Wildfire evacuations have become a persistent challenge all over the world in recent years. Studies have proposed various evacuation strategies, such as vehicle reduction, phased evacuation, and prohibition of on-street parking, which have demonstrated effectiveness in specific communities. However, a comprehensive study that generalizes the effectiveness and applicability of these strategies across different types of communities is lacking. This generalization could hold significant value for small, resource-strapped communities situated in wildland–urban interface zones (i.e., comprising a mix of residences and flammable vegetation) that lack the resources to conduct dedicated evacuation studies. In this study, two indicators, the ratio of background traffic volume to the number of evacuees (RBE), and the ratio of the capacity of the main evacuation roads to the number of evacuees (RCE) were derived to categorize communities into specific groups based on their characteristics during wildfire events. Through evacuation simulations of some typical real-world communities, the applicability and effectiveness of each strategy for each group was assessed. For the given scenarios considered, the findings revealed that for communities with high a RBE and low RCE, promoting carpooling with more than two people per vehicle, extending phased evacuation intervals with safety assurance for evacuees, and enforcing on-street parking prohibition made evacuations more effective. For other communities, encouraging families to use fewer vehicles and implementing a 15-min phased interval, if possible, could potentially be useful.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2043357
- PAR ID:
- 10544901
- Publisher / Repository:
- Sage Journals
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
- ISSN:
- 0361-1981
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981241242374
