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Sea ice levies an impost on maritime navigability in the Arctic, but ice cover diminution due to anthropogenic climate change is generating expectations for improved accessibility in coming decades. Projections of sea ice cover retreating preferentially from the eastern Arctic suggest key provisions of international law of the sea will require revision. Specifically, protections against marine pollution in ice-covered seas enshrined in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have been used in recent decades to extend jurisdictional competence over the Northern Sea Route only loosely associated with environmental outcomes. Projections show that plausible open water routes through international waters may be accessible by midcentury under all but the most aggressive of emissions control scenarios. While inter- and intraannual variability places the economic viability of these routes in question for some time, the inevitability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be attended by a reduction of regulatory friction and a recalibration of associated legal frameworks.
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Divergent trajectories of Arctic change: Implications for future socio-economic patterns
Abstract Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts’ expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the “many Arctics” concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of “many Arctics” for policy and future governance.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2022571
- PAR ID:
- 10552963
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Science + Business Media
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ambio
- Volume:
- 54
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0044-7447
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 239-255
- Size(s):
- p. 239-255
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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