skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Tracking changing water budgets across the Bahamian archipelago
Freshwater resources on small island nations are already at risk from sea level rise and groundwater pumping however, increasing aridity due to climate change further stresses water availability. The amount of freshwater availability on small island nations is delicately balanced by incoming precipitation (P) and outgoing evapo- transpiration (ET). As climate changes, some island nations may see increasing aridity (ET > P) which can have implications for long term freshwater sustainability. Understanding how P and ET are changing allows small island nations to make more informed planning decisions regarding sustainable management and to adapt contemporary strategies to accommodate future change. The Bahamas is one such nation made up of over 700 small islands, many of which rely on freshwater lenses for potable water and irrigation. We use precipitation obtained from the TerraClimate reanalysis dataset and satellite derived actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to analyze how seasonal and yearly water budgets have changed over the last 16 years. We show that ETa is increasing across the Bahamas at a higher rate than global averages. The cause of ETa increases is driven by both increases in temperature and water availability form shifting precipitation patterns, ultimately driving decreases in the amount of available water to recharge the freshwater lens.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1930451
PAR ID:
10555106
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Elsevier
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Hydrology
Volume:
598
Issue:
C
ISSN:
0022-1694
Page Range / eLocation ID:
126178
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
Carbonate Island Hydrology Freshwater lens Remote sensing Water budgets Reanalysis data
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Warming temperatures and precipitation changes are expected to alter water availability and increase drought stress in western North America, yet uncertainties remain in how concurrent changes in the amount and seasonality of precipitation interact with warming to affect hydrologic partitioning. We combined over a century of streamflow (Q) and climate observations with two decades of tree growth data and remotely sensed vegetation activity to quantify how temperature and precipitation interact to control hydrologic partitioning in the Front Range of Colorado, Boulder Creek Watershed. Temperature and precipitation significantly increased over the last five decades, with precipitation increasing primarily in winter (11.2 mm decade−1) and temperature increasing primarily during the growing season (0.12°C decade−1). In response to wetter winters and warmer summers, streamflow decreased −9.8 mm decade−1, with largest declines occurring during summer and autumn baseflow (−8.4 mm decade−1). Spring warming was associated with increases in episodic, short spring melt events, earlier and slower snowmelt and an increase in fraction of precipitation available to plants (catchment wetting or W). Warming during the growing season resulted in an increase in the fraction of W lost as evapotranspiration (ET), earlier and lower peaks in remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and lower tree ring width index (RWI). These analyses highlight that vegetation is becoming increasingly water limited even as increases in precipitation and slower melt increase plant water availability. Further, catchment‐derived metrics like the Horton Index (ET/W) provide insight in to how simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and melt impact vegetation across complex watersheds. 
    more » « less
  2. ABSTRACT The importance of subsurface water dynamics, such as water storage and flow partitioning, is well recognised. Yet, our understanding of their drivers and links to streamflow generation has remained elusive, especially in small headwater streams that are often data‐limited but crucial for downstream water quantity and quality. Large‐scale analyses have focused on streamflow characteristics across rivers with varying drainage areas, often overlooking the subsurface water dynamics that shape streamflow behaviour. Here we ask the question:What are the climate and landscape characteristics that regulate subsurface dynamic storage, flow path partitioning, and dynamics of streamflow generation in headwater streams?To answer this question, we used streamflow data and a widely‐used hydrological model (HBV) for 15 headwater catchments across the contiguous United States. Results show that climate characteristics such as aridity and precipitation phase (snow or rain) and land attributes such as topography and soil texture are key drivers of streamflow generation dynamics. In particular, steeper slopes generally promoted more streamflow, regardless of aridity. Streams in flat, rainy sites (< 30% precipitation as snow) with finer soils exhibited flashier regimes than those in snowy sites (> 30% precipitation as snow) or sites with coarse soils and deeper flow paths. In snowy sites, less weathered, thinner soils promoted shallower flow paths such that discharge was more sensitive to changes in storage, but snow dampened streamflow flashiness overall. Results here indicate that land characteristics such as steepness and soil texture modify subsurface water storage and shallow and deep flow partitioning, ultimately regulating streamflow response to climate forcing. As climate change increases uncertainty in water availability, understanding the interacting climate and landscape features that regulate streamflow will be essential to predict hydrological shifts in headwater catchments and improve water resources management. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract To increase the adoption and reliability of low impact development (LID) practices for stormwater runoff management and other co-benefits, we must improve our understanding of how climate (i.e. patterns in incoming water and energy) affects LID hydrologic behavior and effectiveness. While others have explored the effects of precipitation patterns on LID performance, the role of energy availability and well-known ecological frameworks based on the aridity index (ratio of potential evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, PET:P) such as Budyko theory are almost entirely absent from the LID scientific literature. Furthermore, it has not been tested whether these natural system frameworks can predict the fate of water retained in the urban environment when human interventions decrease runoff. To systematically explore how climate affects LID hydrologic behavior, we forced a process-based hydrologic model of a baseline single-family parcel and a parcel with infiltration-based LID practices with meteorological records from 51 U.S. cities. Contrary to engineering design practice which assumes precipitation intensity is the primary driver of LID effectiveness (e.g. through use of design storms), statistical analysis of our model results shows that the effects of LID practices on long-term surface runoff, deep drainage, and ET are controlled by the relative balance and timing of water and energy availability (PET:P, 30 d correlation of PET and P) and measures of precipitation intermittency. These results offer a new way of predicting LID performance across climates and evaluating the effectiveness of infiltration-based, rather than retention-based, strategies to achieve regional hydrologic goals under current and future climate conditions. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract A recent publication (Mason et al. in Science 376:261, 2022a) suggested that nitrogen (N) availability has declined as a consequence of multiple ongoing components of anthropogenic global change. This suggestion is controversial, because human alteration of the global N cycle is substantial and has driven much-increased fixation of N globally. We used a simple model that has been validated across a climate gradient in Hawai ‘i to test the possibility of a widespread decline in N availability, the evidence supporting it, and the possible mechanisms underlying it. This analysis showed that a decrease in δ15N is not sufficient evidence for a decline in N availability, because δ15N in ecosystems reflects both the isotope ratios in inputs of N to the ecosystem AND fractionation of N isotopes as N cycles, with enrichment of the residual N in the ecosystem caused by greater losses of N by the fractionating pathways that are more important in N-rich sites. However, there is other evidence for declining N availability that is independent of15N and that suggests a widespread decline in N availability. We evaluated whether and how components of anthropogenic global change could cause declining N availability. Earlier work had demonstrated that both increases in the variability of precipitation due to climate change and ecosystem-level disturbance could drive uncontrollable losses of N that reduce N availability and could cause persistent N limitation at equilibrium. Here we modelled climate-change-driven increases in temperature and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. We show that increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations can drive non-equilibrium decreases in N availability and cause the development of N limitation, while the effects of increased temperature appear to be relatively small and short-lived. These environmental changes may cause reductions in N availability over the vast areas of Earth that are not affected by high rates of atmospheric deposition and/or N enrichment associated with urban and agricultural land use. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract An analytical model is developed for mean annual groundwater evapotranspiration (GWET) at the watershed scale based on a three‐stage precipitation partitioning framework. The ratio of mean annual GWET to precipitation, defined as GWET ratio, is modeled as a function of climate aridity index (CAI), storage capacity index, the shape parameter ‘a’ for the spatial distribution of storage capacity, and the shape parameter ‘b’ for the spatial distribution of available water for GWET. In humid regions, GWET ratio tends to increase with increasing CAI due to the limited energy supply and shallower depth to water table (DWT) for a given storage capacity index. In contrast, in arid regions, the GWET ratio tends to decrease as the CAI increases because of the limited water availability and the presence of a deeper DWT for a given storage capacity index. In arid regions, the GWET ratio decreases as the parameter ‘a’ increases, mainly because of increased ET from a thicker unsaturated zone in environments with a deeper DWT. GWET ratio increases as parameter ‘b’ increases due to more watershed area with larger available water for GWET. The storage capacity index and shape parameters are estimated for 31 study watersheds in Tampa Bay Florida area based on the simulated GWET from an integrated hydrologic model and for 21 watersheds from literature. A possible correlation has been identified between the two shape parameters in the Tampa Bay watersheds. The analytical model for mean annual GWET can be further tested in other watersheds if data are available. 
    more » « less