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This content will become publicly available on December 28, 2025

Title: Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future
Abstract

Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

 
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Award ID(s):
2231237
PAR ID:
10565651
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
51
Issue:
24
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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